BTC Active Supply Falls Below 45%: Most Active Coins Are at an Unrealized Loss, but One Ratio Alone Cannot Signal a Bottom

BTC Active Supply Falls Below 45%: Most Active Coins Are at an Unrealized Loss, but One Ratio Alone Cannot Signal a Bottom
Ranked third on Binance Square’s trending list, `#BitcoinActiveSupplyInProfitDropsBelow45%` put a signal that is easy to misread in the spotlight: after excluding coins that have not moved for a long time, fewer than 45% of the active supply is in profit, meaning most coins that have shown signs of recent movement are at an unrealized loss. This indicates market pressure, but it does not mean “the price has fallen enough.”
First, a note on methodology. Binance News cited on-chain analysis saying that, after excluding coins that have not moved for a long time, the share of the active supply in profit fell below 45%; a public data page currently shows a reading of about 46%. Different platforms do not define “active supply,” long-dormant coins, or the measurement time in exactly the same way. So it is more appropriate to describe this as “the danger zone around below 45%” rather than treating any single decimal point as a precise bottom signal.
Related trading page: BTC / USDT Spot
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT?type=spot
What this metric actually reflects is the cost basis of holders: for coins more likely to be transferred, traded, or repriced in the near term, most have a cost basis below the current price. This adds pressure from selling at a loss, stop-loss orders, and trimming positions on rebounds. But it does not tell us whether sellers have finished selling or whether new buyers are stepping in to absorb the supply.
At 14:13 Beijing time, BTC/USDT spot on Binance was around 64,303.83 USDT, down about 4.441% over 24 hours, with an intraday high of 67,523.05 and a low of 62,006.00. Quote-volume turnover was about $2.4947 billion. Spot prices remain close to the intraday low. At least from this snapshot, spot demand has not fully offset the pressure from unrealized on-chain losses. Spot trading page:
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT?type=spot
The derivatives market also offers no evidence that a reversal is already underway. BTCUSDT perpetuals were around 64,256.70, with a mark price of about 64,287.10, an index price of about 64,304.49, a funding rate of about +0.004194% per period, open interest of about 98,145.862 BTC, and quote-volume turnover of about $21.7595 billion. The funding rate remains positive, which only means that the long side is paying during the current settlement period; it does not prove that longs have the upper hand. Open interest is simply the number of outstanding contracts, not net buying.
Related trading page: BTC / USDT Perpetual
My assessment is that this on-chain data raises the bar for a rebound, but is not enough to label the market as entering a new long-term bear market. Three things are worth watching: First, can BTC find spot demand near the intraday low and form higher lows on closed 4-hour candles? Second, does perpetual open interest ease moderately while prices move sideways, rather than leverage continuing to pile up? Third, can the share of active supply in profit stop falling, while the price also stops making new lows?
The cover image for this article shows the BTCUSDT 4-hour chart from the local charting tool: price remains below the MA7, MA35, MA99, and MA200, and the chart shows only a limited rebound following the recent decline. This is only a chart observation. The price scale and indicators in the screenshot do not replace official API data from the time of research, and the chart pattern should not be treated as the source of the on-chain statistics.
What would overturn this cautious view? If BTC first recovers and holds above the recent 4-hour resistance zone, while spot trading volume holds up and perpetual open interest stops rising rapidly, that would suggest that more patient buyers are absorbing coins held at a loss. Conversely, if the price falls below the intraday low, spot demand continues to weaken, and the share of active supply in profit falls further, then “most active coins are at an unrealized loss” could shift from background information to a persistent source of selling pressure.
Sources and verification:
- Binance Square trends: https://www.binance.com/en/square/trends
- Related Binance News report: https://www.binance.com/en-BH/square/post/11-14-2026-bitcoin-news-most-active-bitcoin-supply-now-held-at-a-loss-as-share-of-supply-in-profit-drops-below-45-388165375427646
- CoinGlass on-chain data page: https://www.coinglass.com/pro/onchain/bitcoin-supply-in-profit
- Binance spot 24-hour market data: https://api.binance.com/api/v3/ticker/24hr?symbol=BTCUSDT
- Binance perpetual market data and mark price: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/ticker/24hr?symbol=BTCUSDT 、https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/premiumIndex?symbol=BTCUSDT
Risk disclosure: This article interprets events and market data only and does not constitute investment advice. On-chain metrics may vary depending on methodology. Spot and perpetual prices, trading volumes, funding rates, and open interest change continuously; intraday data is not the same as a confirmed closing figure. Perpetual trading also involves mark-price, funding-rate, and liquidation risks.
$BTC
$BTC