《Down a few thousand points and you’re calling the bottom? Wake up—the macro “hoop” hasn’t loosened yet!》$BTC $ETH
Everyone online is shouting, “It’s fallen enough.” Do you really think we can V-shaped rebound now? First, take a clear look at the three hurdles hanging over us today:
First: Inflation clouds haven’t cleared. Last night, October’s CPI rose 0.4% month over month, and core CPI rose 0.3%—both above expectations. Inflation hasn’t gone away, so don’t fantasize about massive monetary easing.
Second: Rate-hike expectations are locked in. Waller made it clear last night: if core CPI hits 0.3%, he would consider a 50-basis-point rate hike. The latest data has just hit that mark, and the December liquidity alarm is ringing loud and clear.
Third: MicroStrategy’s hidden risk. MSCI will announce its list tonight (the 11th, U.S. Eastern Time). MicroStrategy has already acknowledged in its financial report that it risks being removed. If that triggers portfolio rebalancing by passive funds, the knock-on test for BTC will be severe.
Trading discipline: Macro pressure hasn’t lifted, and potential risks are still on the way. If you start building a position early now, chances are you’ll be handing liquidity to the big players amid volatility. Keep your hands off, reduce leverage, and wait for the right side of the market to stabilize. Don’t shoot until you see the whites of their eyes!
#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压 #
Everyone online is shouting, “It’s fallen enough.” Do you really think we can V-shaped rebound now? First, take a clear look at the three hurdles hanging over us today:
First: Inflation clouds haven’t cleared. Last night, October’s CPI rose 0.4% month over month, and core CPI rose 0.3%—both above expectations. Inflation hasn’t gone away, so don’t fantasize about massive monetary easing.
Second: Rate-hike expectations are locked in. Waller made it clear last night: if core CPI hits 0.3%, he would consider a 50-basis-point rate hike. The latest data has just hit that mark, and the December liquidity alarm is ringing loud and clear.
Third: MicroStrategy’s hidden risk. MSCI will announce its list tonight (the 11th, U.S. Eastern Time). MicroStrategy has already acknowledged in its financial report that it risks being removed. If that triggers portfolio rebalancing by passive funds, the knock-on test for BTC will be severe.
Trading discipline: Macro pressure hasn’t lifted, and potential risks are still on the way. If you start building a position early now, chances are you’ll be handing liquidity to the big players amid volatility. Keep your hands off, reduce leverage, and wait for the right side of the market to stabilize. Don’t shoot until you see the whites of their eyes!
#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压 #
