The midterm elections are over. Don’t focus only on the political spectacle. The real boulder hanging over the crypto market is the drying up of macro liquidity.
Without “cheap money,” don’t expect a major bull run to arrive anytime soon:
1. High oil prices ➔ Inflation stays stubbornly high
Oil prices remain elevated, directly limiting how far inflation can fall. The CPI is what central banks care about most. As long as inflation doesn’t come down, they simply won’t dare turn on the money printer.
2. Tighter policy ➔ Rate-hike fears return
Stop dreaming about rate cuts—you should even be wary of the possibility of another hike. With risk-free rates and Treasury yields this high, big money can just sit back and earn interest. Why take the risk of entering the crypto market?
3. Pricing and regulation ➔ They can’t change the cycle
Expectations fulfilled: Polymarket’s 85% expectation has played out. Once good news is priced in, expect volatility.
Regulatory gridlock: The CLARITY Act is unlikely to pass within the next two years, but the SEC’s enforcement won’t stop.
The iron law of cycles: It’s now day 394 since the peak. Although we’re in a historically low window, elections change the regulatory path; only macro liquidity can truly put in a bottom.
In short: Without the reservoir gates opening, the crypto market is unlikely to make a big move. Until liquidity returns, manage your position size and don’t blindly use leverage.
If you get it, applaud #中期选举魔咒 #油价 #宏观数据
Without “cheap money,” don’t expect a major bull run to arrive anytime soon:
1. High oil prices ➔ Inflation stays stubbornly high
Oil prices remain elevated, directly limiting how far inflation can fall. The CPI is what central banks care about most. As long as inflation doesn’t come down, they simply won’t dare turn on the money printer.
2. Tighter policy ➔ Rate-hike fears return
Stop dreaming about rate cuts—you should even be wary of the possibility of another hike. With risk-free rates and Treasury yields this high, big money can just sit back and earn interest. Why take the risk of entering the crypto market?
3. Pricing and regulation ➔ They can’t change the cycle
Expectations fulfilled: Polymarket’s 85% expectation has played out. Once good news is priced in, expect volatility.
Regulatory gridlock: The CLARITY Act is unlikely to pass within the next two years, but the SEC’s enforcement won’t stop.
The iron law of cycles: It’s now day 394 since the peak. Although we’re in a historically low window, elections change the regulatory path; only macro liquidity can truly put in a bottom.
In short: Without the reservoir gates opening, the crypto market is unlikely to make a big move. Until liquidity returns, manage your position size and don’t blindly use leverage.
If you get it, applaud #中期选举魔咒 #油价 #宏观数据