Guys, Auntie Fourteen is laying it all out today: the Fed keeps talking tough, but the knife in its hand has already gone dull.
September nonfarm payrolls grew by just 29,000, unemployment was 4.2%, Canadian employment plunged by 68,300, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 46.3, below expectations. The labor market is starting to soften, while inflation is still refusing to let go. The September minutes were pretty clear: most officials acknowledged that upside inflation risks remain, but with the labor market continuing to cool, another rate cut this year would also be appropriate.
That’s the bind: the market wants to get ahead of rate cuts, but the Fed insists on holding you back with the data.
What should we watch next? Hammack and Waller speak Monday, followed by Collins on Tuesday. Three voting members taking turns at the mic—their exact words matter less than the direction they point in. Initial jobless claims come out Wednesday, with consensus at 201,000 versus 200,000 previously. If that number starts ticking up, rate-cut expectations will be repriced immediately, the dollar and Treasury yields will move lower, and risk assets can catch their breath. Don’t treat the Middle East as background noise: if energy prices rise, inflation expectations will come roaring back.
My view: the short end of Treasuries is the most comfortable place to be in this cycle. Crypto moves with liquidity, so don’t go all in before the data comes out. Don’t be afraid—just do it, but first make sure you know what cards you’re holding.😅
#宏观 #美联储 #AuntieFourteen
September nonfarm payrolls grew by just 29,000, unemployment was 4.2%, Canadian employment plunged by 68,300, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 46.3, below expectations. The labor market is starting to soften, while inflation is still refusing to let go. The September minutes were pretty clear: most officials acknowledged that upside inflation risks remain, but with the labor market continuing to cool, another rate cut this year would also be appropriate.
That’s the bind: the market wants to get ahead of rate cuts, but the Fed insists on holding you back with the data.
What should we watch next? Hammack and Waller speak Monday, followed by Collins on Tuesday. Three voting members taking turns at the mic—their exact words matter less than the direction they point in. Initial jobless claims come out Wednesday, with consensus at 201,000 versus 200,000 previously. If that number starts ticking up, rate-cut expectations will be repriced immediately, the dollar and Treasury yields will move lower, and risk assets can catch their breath. Don’t treat the Middle East as background noise: if energy prices rise, inflation expectations will come roaring back.
My view: the short end of Treasuries is the most comfortable place to be in this cycle. Crypto moves with liquidity, so don’t go all in before the data comes out. Don’t be afraid—just do it, but first make sure you know what cards you’re holding.😅
#宏观 #美联储 #AuntieFourteen