Sector rotation is more worth remembering than index moves
Finish reading out the U.S. market numbers first, then decide whether crypto should follow.
Put the numbers on the table first; then talk about what they mean.
Crude oil 90.44 (5-day -0.74%, Yahoo)
S&P 7,773 (5-day +1.59%, Yahoo)
Nasdaq 27,395 (5-day +1.99%, Yahoo)
My take: The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.34%, up another +1.99% over 5 days. The long end is draining liquidity, and both growth stocks and BTC have to yield ground on their valuation narratives.
Crypto comparison: BTC 83186 (24h -3.63%), ETH 2568 (-5.37%). ETH’s 24h -5.37% is weaker than BTC’s -3.63%; the exchange rate is 0.03087. Capital is concentrating in BTC, so I’m staying on the sidelines with altcoins for now.
What I’m watching next: VIX is now 15.84. If it gets above 18, I’ll cut my futures position in half. I’m not going to argue with the U.S. market’s closing price.
My position: I won’t try to catch the first falling knife. Until the decline brings open interest down, buying on the way down is just catching falling knives.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change). Missing numbers are left blank.
When meme coins aren’t outperforming BTC, are you still holding them?
#美股 #BTC #TradingObservations
Data card (same snapshot as the main text; missing values are dashes):
BTC 83,186 -3.63% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,568 -5.37% ETH/BTC 0.03087
S&P 7,773 +1.59% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 27,395 +1.99% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 +0.43% DXY 5-day
VIX 15.84 -3.36% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0002% Open interest 7.96B (24h -3.11) Long/short 1.5259 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: People elsewhere are discussing “bitcoin OR stock market OR U.S. stocks - Google News.” I’m treating that only as background; my conclusions are still based on the numbers in the main text.
These are my personal views; see the sources in the main text for the numbers. This is not an instruction to place a trade.
Finish reading out the U.S. market numbers first, then decide whether crypto should follow.
Put the numbers on the table first; then talk about what they mean.
Crude oil 90.44 (5-day -0.74%, Yahoo)
S&P 7,773 (5-day +1.59%, Yahoo)
Nasdaq 27,395 (5-day +1.99%, Yahoo)
My take: The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.34%, up another +1.99% over 5 days. The long end is draining liquidity, and both growth stocks and BTC have to yield ground on their valuation narratives.
Crypto comparison: BTC 83186 (24h -3.63%), ETH 2568 (-5.37%). ETH’s 24h -5.37% is weaker than BTC’s -3.63%; the exchange rate is 0.03087. Capital is concentrating in BTC, so I’m staying on the sidelines with altcoins for now.
What I’m watching next: VIX is now 15.84. If it gets above 18, I’ll cut my futures position in half. I’m not going to argue with the U.S. market’s closing price.
My position: I won’t try to catch the first falling knife. Until the decline brings open interest down, buying on the way down is just catching falling knives.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change). Missing numbers are left blank.
When meme coins aren’t outperforming BTC, are you still holding them?
#美股 #BTC #TradingObservations
Data card (same snapshot as the main text; missing values are dashes):
BTC 83,186 -3.63% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,568 -5.37% ETH/BTC 0.03087
S&P 7,773 +1.59% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 27,395 +1.99% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 +0.43% DXY 5-day
VIX 15.84 -3.36% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0002% Open interest 7.96B (24h -3.11) Long/short 1.5259 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: People elsewhere are discussing “bitcoin OR stock market OR U.S. stocks - Google News.” I’m treating that only as background; my conclusions are still based on the numbers in the main text.
These are my personal views; see the sources in the main text for the numbers. This is not an instruction to place a trade.