How markets are reacting during earnings season—some notes, point by point
There’s no new narrative in US stocks today, just price moves.
These macro figures are current prices, not recollections:
Crude oil 90.05 (5-day -1.16%, Yahoo)
S&P 7,819 (5-day +1.93%, Yahoo)
Dow 51,521 (5-day +0.33%, Yahoo)
So: VIX 15.67, with volatility being suppressed. At levels like these, US stocks can grind higher. Don’t use gains in US stocks as a reason to add leverage in crypto—a VIX bounce, and futures get wiped out first.
Crypto: BTC 83792 (-2.73%), funding rate -0.0048% (8h, Binance USDⓈ-M). ETH is down 4.92% over 24h, weaker than BTC at -2.73%; exchange rate 0.03079. Money is concentrating in BTC, so wait and see before taking positions in altcoins.
There’s only one thing I’m watching in crypto: can BTC close above its 24h high of 86699? If it can’t, talk of following the rally is just hot air.
My position: I don’t try to catch the first drop. Until the decline is accompanied by a reduction in open interest, any early entry is catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change). Missing figures are not filled in.
When memes aren’t outperforming BTC, are you still holding them?
#宏观 #BTC #USStocks
Data card (same time frame as the main text; missing values are marked with a dash):
BTC 83,792 -2.73% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,580 -4.92% ETH/BTC 0.03079
S&P 7,819 +1.93% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 27,600 +2.99% Yahoo 5-day
US dollar 102 +0.37% DXY 5-day
VIX 15.67 -4.39% Yahoo
Funding rate -0.0048% Open interest 8.13B (24h -0.48) Long/short 1.4716 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: people elsewhere are discussing “"bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks" - Google News”. I’m treating that only as background; my conclusions are still based on the figures in the main text.
These are my personal views; figures are from the sources cited in the main text. Not an instruction to trade.
There’s no new narrative in US stocks today, just price moves.
These macro figures are current prices, not recollections:
Crude oil 90.05 (5-day -1.16%, Yahoo)
S&P 7,819 (5-day +1.93%, Yahoo)
Dow 51,521 (5-day +0.33%, Yahoo)
So: VIX 15.67, with volatility being suppressed. At levels like these, US stocks can grind higher. Don’t use gains in US stocks as a reason to add leverage in crypto—a VIX bounce, and futures get wiped out first.
Crypto: BTC 83792 (-2.73%), funding rate -0.0048% (8h, Binance USDⓈ-M). ETH is down 4.92% over 24h, weaker than BTC at -2.73%; exchange rate 0.03079. Money is concentrating in BTC, so wait and see before taking positions in altcoins.
There’s only one thing I’m watching in crypto: can BTC close above its 24h high of 86699? If it can’t, talk of following the rally is just hot air.
My position: I don’t try to catch the first drop. Until the decline is accompanied by a reduction in open interest, any early entry is catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change). Missing figures are not filled in.
When memes aren’t outperforming BTC, are you still holding them?
#宏观 #BTC #USStocks
Data card (same time frame as the main text; missing values are marked with a dash):
BTC 83,792 -2.73% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,580 -4.92% ETH/BTC 0.03079
S&P 7,819 +1.93% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 27,600 +2.99% Yahoo 5-day
US dollar 102 +0.37% DXY 5-day
VIX 15.67 -4.39% Yahoo
Funding rate -0.0048% Open interest 8.13B (24h -0.48) Long/short 1.4716 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: people elsewhere are discussing “"bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks" - Google News”. I’m treating that only as background; my conclusions are still based on the figures in the main text.
These are my personal views; figures are from the sources cited in the main text. Not an instruction to trade.