Arizona, the state bordering Mexico, is key for Democrats, who need to win back three seats to take control of the House of Representatives
The price of gasoline has become one of the Democrats’ main weapons in competitive districts across the United States ahead of the midterm elections, including two in Arizona, which could help determine control of Congress.
This border state with Mexico is key for Democrats, who need to win back three seats to take control of the House of Representatives, in a context in which gasoline is around $4.41 per gallon (a little over 3.7 liters), 39% higher than a year ago.
The race drawing the most national attention is in District 1, between Republican Jay Feely and Democrat Amish Shah.
“Democrats are reminding voters every day that gas prices are through the roof because of the war with Iran, and Republicans are being forced to defend Trump somehow—something that is becoming increasingly difficult for them to do,” political analyst Michael O’Neil told EFE.
With that argument, Democrats in Arizona—as in other states—are seeking to win a district they have come close to winning several times, but have ultimately fallen short in.
“In any other election, I could say Republicans might hold on to this district. However, in recent months we’ve seen more and more signs pointing to a possible Democratic victory,” O’Neil added.
Consumers “strangled” by costs
“Trump promised a better economy, and he didn’t deliver. A lot of people are very angry. Gas, food, and basic necessities are choking us all,” Carmen Ruiz, who delivers food and other products in her vehicle, told EFE.
She complained that the rise in fuel costs has cut her earnings by “up to 50%” in recent months.
“I used to be able to fill up my gas tank for a week with $35. Now that same amount barely covers three days of work,” the Mexican immigrant lamented.
She explained that before the war began, she was earning about $500 a week, but now she can barely make $300.
“As long as we have the conflict with Iran and no real solution, prices will continue to rise and fall,” Amy Cramer, an economics professor at Pima Community College in Arizona, told EFE.
She added that the high cost of living is having a major impact on Americans’ daily lives, and its effects will become even more apparent toward the end of the year.
Trump’s liability
In O’Neil’s view, the outcome of this closely contested race will have nothing to do with each candidate’s political platform, since both are running on “traditional” Republican and Democratic agendas, respectively.
She stressed that because of the high cost of living, “Trump has become a millstone around the necks of Republican candidates, and he has done nothing to help candidates from his party.”
Republican Feely, a former NFL football player who has never held public office, says that if elected, he will work to complete construction of the border wall.
This staunch Trump supporter has also defended the war, his handling of the economy, and the imposition of high tariffs on other countries.
Meanwhile, Democrat Shah, a physician by profession, is making a second bid to win a district he lost by fewer than four points in 2024. He is focusing part of his campaign on holding the Trump administration responsible for the high cost of living.
The former state legislator has also criticized the high cost of health care and Trump’s policies, which in his view have left more people without health insurance.
Besides District 1, redrawn in 2023 and covering northwestern Phoenix, the state capital, the other competitive seat is District 6, where Latina Democrat JoAnna Mendoza is seeking to unseat Trump ally and Republican Juan Ciscomani. The race is also being shaped by the impact of high fuel prices on voters.
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