đ´ăBearish ¡ Shortingă $BTC
Honestly, just now that bearish candle at $BTC smashed downâscreenshots of people in the group getting stopped out kept coming one after another, while I already placed my first buy order at 83,800.
First, let me explain why I go against most people.
At face value, it really looks ugly. The price was smashed from 86,800 all the way to below 84,000, and weâre seeing two consecutive bearish daily candles. But if you break down the order book, the âflavorâ is totally different: the volume for this leg of liquidation is only about 60% of the previous push upâthis is a classic low-volume bearish grind down. What does real distribution look like? Big volume selling that breaks through, a weak failed rebound, and bids being eaten layer by layer. This current path looks more like a sweep of losses in the liquidity-dense zone around 83,000â84,000, taking out leveraged long stop-loss orders in one go.
The second counterintuitive point is the funding rate. After the panic crowd poured in to short, the funding rate turned negative very quicklyâmeaning right now the crowded side is shorts, not longs. When everyone is bearish, there arenât many people left below with the motivation to keep smashing.
Now look at the structure. 84,000 isnât picked randomly. Itâs the upper edge of the earlier dense consolidation zone, and it also lines up closely with the 0.618 of this pullback. If price pierces down and quickly snaps back, leaving a long lower wick, then I call it a fakeout. If it canât reclaim, Iâll admit Iâm wrongâno stubborn holding.
My plan is only three points:
Enter by placing orders to buy in batches within 83,600â84,200âdonât chase price;
Hold the defense at 81,600: if the daily candleâs body closes below it, it means my âfakeoutâ thesis is invalidated, so Iâll cut and leave immediatelyâno averaging down;
First target 86,400: at that level, reduce by half to lock in profits, and the rest is looking at 88,000âthe starting point of the drop.
From 83,800 to 86,400 is a 2,600-point upside, while the stop at 81,600 risks 2,200 points. The reward-to-risk is roughly 2.6:1âIâve already done the math.
Of course, my bearish brothers arenât without reasonâif the 80,000 integer level is decisively broken to the downside, the whole medium-to-short-term structure will need to be redrawn. Then I wonât fight the trend.
So hereâs the question: do you think the main players are washing and accumulating near 84,000, or is this the first pullback during a continued downtrend? Letâs discuss your view in the comments.
#ĺ¸ĺŽĺšżĺş #$BTC #čĄć ĺć #ĺ續ĺŽć #Go long
Honestly, just now that bearish candle at $BTC smashed downâscreenshots of people in the group getting stopped out kept coming one after another, while I already placed my first buy order at 83,800.
First, let me explain why I go against most people.
At face value, it really looks ugly. The price was smashed from 86,800 all the way to below 84,000, and weâre seeing two consecutive bearish daily candles. But if you break down the order book, the âflavorâ is totally different: the volume for this leg of liquidation is only about 60% of the previous push upâthis is a classic low-volume bearish grind down. What does real distribution look like? Big volume selling that breaks through, a weak failed rebound, and bids being eaten layer by layer. This current path looks more like a sweep of losses in the liquidity-dense zone around 83,000â84,000, taking out leveraged long stop-loss orders in one go.
The second counterintuitive point is the funding rate. After the panic crowd poured in to short, the funding rate turned negative very quicklyâmeaning right now the crowded side is shorts, not longs. When everyone is bearish, there arenât many people left below with the motivation to keep smashing.
Now look at the structure. 84,000 isnât picked randomly. Itâs the upper edge of the earlier dense consolidation zone, and it also lines up closely with the 0.618 of this pullback. If price pierces down and quickly snaps back, leaving a long lower wick, then I call it a fakeout. If it canât reclaim, Iâll admit Iâm wrongâno stubborn holding.
My plan is only three points:
Enter by placing orders to buy in batches within 83,600â84,200âdonât chase price;
Hold the defense at 81,600: if the daily candleâs body closes below it, it means my âfakeoutâ thesis is invalidated, so Iâll cut and leave immediatelyâno averaging down;
First target 86,400: at that level, reduce by half to lock in profits, and the rest is looking at 88,000âthe starting point of the drop.
From 83,800 to 86,400 is a 2,600-point upside, while the stop at 81,600 risks 2,200 points. The reward-to-risk is roughly 2.6:1âIâve already done the math.
Of course, my bearish brothers arenât without reasonâif the 80,000 integer level is decisively broken to the downside, the whole medium-to-short-term structure will need to be redrawn. Then I wonât fight the trend.
So hereâs the question: do you think the main players are washing and accumulating near 84,000, or is this the first pullback during a continued downtrend? Letâs discuss your view in the comments.
#ĺ¸ĺŽĺšżĺş #$BTC #čĄć ĺć #ĺ續ĺŽć #Go long