【History repeats itself—will you follow this time?】
In 2019, the halving expectation was supposed to pull BTC from 3,000 to 13,000. But when the halving actually took place, the market instead went quiet. The market was betting on expectations—once the expectation is fulfilled, it becomes a bearish factor. What’s different this time is that— the macro logic is quietly switching.
Yesterday, the U.S. employment data came out: only 29k new jobs were added, and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.2%. Bond yields fell immediately, and BTC followed by rebounding to 87,000. You think this is just an independent move within the crypto market? Wrong. The Fed’s room for monetary policy has opened up, and global capital will look for a new way out. In the past, BTC was moving with U.S. stocks as a risk asset; now it’s becoming a hedging tool against the U.S. dollar. This shift is something many people haven’t reacted to yet.
BTC is currently hovering around 85,000—down 32% from the recent peak. Is that high? From a historical perspective, this type of pullback range has long been an area where long-term funds build positions. In 2018, 2020, and 2023, after each major correction, the consolidation phase was essentially the buildup period for the next wave of the rally. Will this time repeat? I’m not certain, but the probability isn’t small.
What about A-shares? The logic is the same. Expectations for China’s economic recovery plus looser policy—foreign capital is reevaluating emerging markets. Money is smart: wherever there’s certainty, liquidity flows. Over the past two years, BTC and A-shares haven’t moved in perfect synchronization, but the underlying driving force is the same thing— a macro turning point.
I’m not saying this to push you to go all-in. I only want you to see one thing clearly: this BTC correction, in essence, is not just something happening inside the crypto market. It’s global macro funds reshuffling positions. Whoever understands this logic first will have one more card up their sleeve.
Do you believe this macro-driven rally will come? Can BTC replicate the script of 2019?
In 2019, the halving expectation was supposed to pull BTC from 3,000 to 13,000. But when the halving actually took place, the market instead went quiet. The market was betting on expectations—once the expectation is fulfilled, it becomes a bearish factor. What’s different this time is that— the macro logic is quietly switching.
Yesterday, the U.S. employment data came out: only 29k new jobs were added, and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.2%. Bond yields fell immediately, and BTC followed by rebounding to 87,000. You think this is just an independent move within the crypto market? Wrong. The Fed’s room for monetary policy has opened up, and global capital will look for a new way out. In the past, BTC was moving with U.S. stocks as a risk asset; now it’s becoming a hedging tool against the U.S. dollar. This shift is something many people haven’t reacted to yet.
BTC is currently hovering around 85,000—down 32% from the recent peak. Is that high? From a historical perspective, this type of pullback range has long been an area where long-term funds build positions. In 2018, 2020, and 2023, after each major correction, the consolidation phase was essentially the buildup period for the next wave of the rally. Will this time repeat? I’m not certain, but the probability isn’t small.
What about A-shares? The logic is the same. Expectations for China’s economic recovery plus looser policy—foreign capital is reevaluating emerging markets. Money is smart: wherever there’s certainty, liquidity flows. Over the past two years, BTC and A-shares haven’t moved in perfect synchronization, but the underlying driving force is the same thing— a macro turning point.
I’m not saying this to push you to go all-in. I only want you to see one thing clearly: this BTC correction, in essence, is not just something happening inside the crypto market. It’s global macro funds reshuffling positions. Whoever understands this logic first will have one more card up their sleeve.
Do you believe this macro-driven rally will come? Can BTC replicate the script of 2019?