Jobs data came in way weaker than expected:
Nonfarm payrolls: +29K (expected ~90K)
July & August revised down 60K combined — July's now negative
Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%
Wage growth cooled to 3.0% YoY
Labor market's clearly cooling. Another rate hike would just squeeze hiring even more when the Fed's supposed to care about employment too.
This doesn't totally kill an October hike, three-month average is still holding and household survey looked better, but the runway's getting narrow. Fed's running out of excuses to keep tightening.
Nonfarm payrolls: +29K (expected ~90K)
July & August revised down 60K combined — July's now negative
Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%
Wage growth cooled to 3.0% YoY
Labor market's clearly cooling. Another rate hike would just squeeze hiring even more when the Fed's supposed to care about employment too.
This doesn't totally kill an October hike, three-month average is still holding and household survey looked better, but the runway's getting narrow. Fed's running out of excuses to keep tightening.