Over the past 7 days, 14 unlocks were followed by clear patterns. The main opportunity usually isn’t in “betting the direction on the unlock day,” but whether pricing has already been done before the unlock.
Key pattern (BTC was roughly range-bound during the same period, so this is mostly the behavior of the coin itself):
If the price surged in the 7 days before the unlock, it often gives back most of the gains after the unlock (sell on unlock / sell the news).
If the price was already smashed down before the unlock, it’s more likely to rebound after the unlock (buy again after the sell-off).
In the last 24 hours (D-1), there’s often another impulse wave—don’t mistake it for trend confirmation.
Typical cases
High before, then lower after: XPL (+26% before / -13% after, circulation ratio 63%), CARDS (+28% / -11%), STBL, SOSO, ALT.
Low before, then higher after: H (-26% / +5% after), FF (-7% / +8%), ZORA, GUN.
Exception: GRASS surged +76% before the unlock and can still rise further—so don’t treat this as a hard rule.
Where the opportunities are
High circulation ratio + a big jump in the prior 7 days: prioritize it as a “selling window,” rather than chasing the unlock catalyst. XPL at this scale is the most typical example.
Clearly hammered in the prior 7 days, but the circulation ratio isn’t too extreme: it looks more like the downside is already priced in, so a repair after the unlock is more likely.
Extremely small ratio (e.g., SUI 0.32%): the unlock itself has limited impact—don’t attribute the whole move to the unlock.
Don’t look only at the “unlock day.” The real pricing window is often from D-7 to D-1—especially the D-1 bullish candle, which is easiest to mislead.
Key pattern (BTC was roughly range-bound during the same period, so this is mostly the behavior of the coin itself):
If the price surged in the 7 days before the unlock, it often gives back most of the gains after the unlock (sell on unlock / sell the news).
If the price was already smashed down before the unlock, it’s more likely to rebound after the unlock (buy again after the sell-off).
In the last 24 hours (D-1), there’s often another impulse wave—don’t mistake it for trend confirmation.
Typical cases
High before, then lower after: XPL (+26% before / -13% after, circulation ratio 63%), CARDS (+28% / -11%), STBL, SOSO, ALT.
Low before, then higher after: H (-26% / +5% after), FF (-7% / +8%), ZORA, GUN.
Exception: GRASS surged +76% before the unlock and can still rise further—so don’t treat this as a hard rule.
Where the opportunities are
High circulation ratio + a big jump in the prior 7 days: prioritize it as a “selling window,” rather than chasing the unlock catalyst. XPL at this scale is the most typical example.
Clearly hammered in the prior 7 days, but the circulation ratio isn’t too extreme: it looks more like the downside is already priced in, so a repair after the unlock is more likely.
Extremely small ratio (e.g., SUI 0.32%): the unlock itself has limited impact—don’t attribute the whole move to the unlock.
Don’t look only at the “unlock day.” The real pricing window is often from D-7 to D-1—especially the D-1 bullish candle, which is easiest to mislead.
