BCH rose about 28% within 24 hours, becoming the best-performing asset among the top 100 by market value. Its price, which hovered around $270, briefly surged above $340. The trigger was CME’s announcement that it would list Bitcoin Cash futures on October 19 (standard contracts for 250 BCH and micro contracts for 25 BCH), pending regulatory approval; on September 11, Grayscale also submitted an amended filing to convert its BCH trust into a spot ETF (ticker BCHG).
The bulls are looking at access. Trading volume increased from $1.47 billion to $2.13 billion, and open interest rose from roughly $350 million to $600 million—the highest since May of this year. The launch of futures means institutions can trade both directions, trade the basis, and market-making depth should follow; a spot ETF is another compliant channel. In the business of “compliance premium,” the biggest problem with an old coin is not the technology, but that there aren’t many incentives for people to trade it—CME happens to fill that gap.
The bears are looking at fundamentals. This rally wasn’t accompanied by any changes at the protocol level; what surged were positions and sentiment. Data from some platforms shows the sell-order ratio as high as 63%. Even more striking is the statistic: after 49 similar big breakouts over the past two years, the 30-day median return was -6.7%, and many cases fell back below the original breakout level.
I tend to believe this is an “access re-pricing” rather than a “value re-pricing”—its persistence doesn’t depend on the candlestick chart, but on whether the October 19 rollout can land on schedule. If it’s rejected or delayed, the gains will be quickly given back. By the way, during the same period $BTC briefly fell below $86,000; the money was moved from BTC, not new capital.
So here’s the question for you: is this old coin’s second compliant spring, or just a sentiment pulse worth only shorting implied volatility? Would you chase $BCH ?
#BCHrisesAbout28%AfterCMEfuturesListing
The bulls are looking at access. Trading volume increased from $1.47 billion to $2.13 billion, and open interest rose from roughly $350 million to $600 million—the highest since May of this year. The launch of futures means institutions can trade both directions, trade the basis, and market-making depth should follow; a spot ETF is another compliant channel. In the business of “compliance premium,” the biggest problem with an old coin is not the technology, but that there aren’t many incentives for people to trade it—CME happens to fill that gap.
The bears are looking at fundamentals. This rally wasn’t accompanied by any changes at the protocol level; what surged were positions and sentiment. Data from some platforms shows the sell-order ratio as high as 63%. Even more striking is the statistic: after 49 similar big breakouts over the past two years, the 30-day median return was -6.7%, and many cases fell back below the original breakout level.
I tend to believe this is an “access re-pricing” rather than a “value re-pricing”—its persistence doesn’t depend on the candlestick chart, but on whether the October 19 rollout can land on schedule. If it’s rejected or delayed, the gains will be quickly given back. By the way, during the same period $BTC briefly fell below $86,000; the money was moved from BTC, not new capital.
So here’s the question for you: is this old coin’s second compliant spring, or just a sentiment pulse worth only shorting implied volatility? Would you chase $BCH ?
#BCHrisesAbout28%AfterCMEfuturesListing