Greetings, dear friends!
Today I'm analyzing #ZECUSDT on three timeframes at once to understand what happens to the price after a strong impulse. For me, it's important here not just to list indicator values, but to show how I read their position relative to the price.
I'll start with the daily chart. The price is above AVL 1 484,55. So right now I'm using AVL as the nearest reference point to assess the price position: as long as the market stays above this line, the price maintains its position above AVL. If the price goes below and consolidates under it, that will be a sign to me that the current structure is weakening.
Next I look at SAR 1 342.50. The SAR points are below the price. This corresponds to the indicator’s bullish position: as long as the points remain below, the SAR continues to accompany the move upward. If the points move above the price, the indicator’s position will change to the opposite.
The same logic can be seen with Supertrend 1 115.73. Its line is far below the current price, so $ZEC is trading above the Supertrend for now. As long as the price stays above this line, the indicator remains in an upward position. If the price consolidates below it, the signal will change.
Now I switch to the 4H timeframe.
Here the price is practically at AVL 1 503.42. This is an important zone because the market has approached the line directly. If the price holds above it, I’ll view the AVL as a possible support. If it stays below, the line will continue to act as the closest upside reference point.
At the same time, SAR 1 565.40 is above the current price. This is an important difference from the daily chart. When the SAR points are above the price, the indicator is in a bearish position on this timeframe.
But Supertrend 1 353.98 remains below the price. That’s why on the 4H timeframe I see a mixed picture: the price is above the Supertrend, but below the SAR and practically touching the AVL. That’s why for me here it’s not one single line, but the reaction of the price to the 1,503–1,504 area.
On 15M, the picture is even more local.
The price is below AVL 1 503.46 and below SAR 1 520.16. So, on the short timeframe, the market hasn’t yet returned above these two reference points.
At the same time, Supertrend 1 465.07 is below the price. So you get a clear setup: the price is between the Supertrend below and the SAR above. Therefore, for now, I don’t see final confirmation of movement in either direction.
The 1 503–1 504 area is especially interesting. On 4H, AVL is at 1 503.42, and on 15M it’s at 1 503.46. The two lines practically match, so I’ll pay close attention to what happens to the price exactly here.
If $ZEC holds above 1 503–1 504, the next reference for me will be SAR 15M at 1 520.16. If the price can also pass this level, the next obstacle will be the local area at 1 573, and then the previous high at 1 595.30.
If, however, the price doesn’t hold 1 503–1 504, first I look at 1 494.15. Below is Supertrend 1 465.07. If the price loses this line too, the next level of focus will be 1 443.73.
Now I look at the futures data.
Open interest increased from about 468K to 473K, and then decreased to around 471K. By itself, OI shows changes in the number of open contracts, but it doesn’t show which side opened the positions. That’s why I don’t use it separately to determine direction of movement.
Among the best traders, the ratio of longs to shorts is below 1: about 0.49–0.50 by accounts and 0.52–0.53 by positions. This means there are more short positions in the statistics shown. But this is a characteristic of the current positioning, not an independent price forecast.
Funding is +0.01000%. With positive funding, longs pay shorts. I take this figure as an additional characteristic of the current positioning, but I don’t use it separately as a signal to rise or fall.
In the end, I see the following picture: on the daily chart, the price is above the AVL, the SAR, and the Supertrend. On 4H, the price is between the SAR and the Supertrend and at the same time testing the AVL. On 15M, the price is also between the Supertrend and the SAR, and specifically right near the coinciding AVL values.
So my plan here is simple. A consolidation above 1 503–1 504 will make me look at 1 520.16, then 1 573 and 1 595.30. Losing 1 494.15 will shift attention to 1 465.07 and then to 1 443.73.
I’m not trying to guess the direction of the next impulse in advance. First I look at which level the price accepts and which it rejects. It’s the market’s reaction to these zones that will give me confirmation of the next move.