Today’s regime is wait-and-see: opportunities are still there, but the structure is clearly diverged—can’t treat the first three with the same chase-high logic.
Key facts come from the筛选:
$我踏马来了 Up about 17.4% today, dist20≈-0.58% (slightly below the 20 EMA); OI +21% in 1h; -0.83% in 6h, +0.55% in 1h—after rising through a wave, it has returned to the EMA friction band, and positions are still being added.
$牛来 Up about 8.1% today, +6.1% in 6h, trading value about 258M; but dist20≈+2.2%, with OI -11.5% in 1h—price strength with solid volume; positions are decreasing.
$REZ Up about 27% today, dist20≈+10.9%, part of an extension move—only for alternative observation.
Decision differentiation: the main line is $我踏马来了 with “20-EMA retest + OI still rising”; $牛来 is demoted to second place—waiting for a retracement to converge; $REZ no entry into the official Top, and no price-chase trigger.
—— Top1: $我踏马来了 ——
Current price about 0.01466, score 34.2. The reason for selection is the position, not just the amount of rise: the daily has moved, and the short-term has cooled down near the 20 EMA; OI in 1h is still +21%, more like a fill than an acceleration from the top.
Observation zone: 0.0142–0.0148 (about the 20-EMA friction band for ~0.5–1×ATR=0.001).
Trigger: after stabilizing within the range, look for a renewed push up; or a retracement after reclaiming the 20 EMA that does not break.
Invalidation: drops below about 0.0132 (about 1.5×ATR) and can’t reclaim, or after a high-volume long upper wick loses the previous low.
Discipline: only trade near the moving average; don’t chase longs in the blank zone above 0.0155. If it breaks down, don’t average down.
—— Top2: $牛来 ——
Current price about 0.1361, score 31.9. +6% in 6h and 258M in成交额 confirm liquidity and short-/mid-term strength, but OI 1h is -11.5% + it’s already ~2.2% above the 20 EMA—adding to position in the same way doesn’t make sense.
Observation zone: 0.132–0.134 (converging toward the 20 EMA by about 1.5–2.5%).
Trigger: after a retracement, 1h stops falling, and the OI decline narrows or turns positive.
Invalidation: high-volume break below about 0.128 (about 1.5×ATR), or the retracement fails and turns weak.
Discipline: chasing longs at the current price has poor risk-reward; when OI keeps falling, keep position size below Top1—don’t treat second place as the main line.
—— Alternative: $REZ ——
+27% today, about +11% vs the 20 EMA. Even with OI +19.6% in 1h, it doesn’t change the fact that it’s “far from the EMA band.” One sentence downgrade: only observe, don’t chase price; reassess when it returns near the 20 EMA.
Execution checklist:
1. Official Top is only $我踏马来了 and $牛来; position split is about 2:1, not equally divided.
2. $我踏马来了: limit 0.0142–0.0148 to consider entry; no chase orders once it leaves the friction band.
3. $牛来: first wait for 0.132–0.134; don’t chase in the blank area above the moving averages.
4. If the 1h close breaks the invalidation level, exit that trade—don’t add more.
5. For assets with dist20>8% and daily涨>20% (including $REZ), observe them uniformly today.
Risk: Chinese/meme contracts are more volatile than mainstream; OI spikes can quickly reverse. Under wait-and-see, there are many fake breakouts and fake retracements—use smaller leverage and stricter stop-losses. The first two fees are close to neutral; the main conflict is position and OI, not fees.
Summary: #158 Mainly focuses on 20-EMA retest with OI still increasing: $我踏马来了; second, $牛来 as it retraces when OI drops; $REZ distance from the EMA is too far, so no chase.