Gold is approaching an important test ahead of a major speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh in Jackson Hole, amid clear market anticipation.

After recording this week’s highest levels since mid-May, gold came under selling pressure, pulling it back to around the $4,600 area, before it attempted to regain balance. This move coincided with the release of U.S. inflation data, which showed the annual Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising to 3.7% in July, exceeding market expectations of 3.6%.

But the most important reading isn’t the fall itself—it’s how price deals with the support zone.

Technically, the $4,600 area has become a key test zone. Keeping gold above it, with renewed demand returning, could mean the current move is nothing more than profit-taking and a correction after the last bullish wave.

But breaking above it and holding below it—especially if that coincides with a rise in the dollar and bond yields—will increase the likelihood that the correction extends toward lower support levels.

On the other hand, there’s a key factor that prevents viewing the decline as the start of a confirmed bearish trend: demand for gold from investment funds and central banks is still a supportive element, and concerns about the dollar and U.S. debt are still present in the market.

The most sensitive factor right now is how Kevin Warsh speaks.

The market isn’t looking only for a decision on rates; it wants to know how Warsh thinks about inflation, the bond market, and the path of monetary policy over the coming months. With inflation staying at high levels, the tone of the messaging has become more important than any prior expectation.

First scenario:

If Warsh’s tone is hawkish and rate expectations, the dollar, and yields rise, gold could face additional pressure. A break of $4,600 would become an important technical signal for the correction to continue.

Second scenario:

If his tone is less hawkish, or if he doesn’t provide clear guidance on raising rates, pressure could return to the dollar and yields—then gold may quickly regain bullish momentum.

Third scenario… and the most dangerous for traders:

A temporary break of one level, then a quick reversal.

So, gold’s move before the speech should be handled with caution, because the market may see a “liquidity pull” in both directions before the true trend is determined.

The bottom line, as an expert sees it:

The current drop alone isn’t enough to say gold has entered a bearish wave.

So far, the closest read is that this is a correction and profit-taking after a strong rally, but the $4,600 zone is the line in the sand.

Holding above it = a chance to regain momentum.

Breaking below it and holding under it = risk of the correction extending.

The real surprise will come from how gold interacts with the dollar and bond yields after Warsh’s speech.

Therefore, at this stage, I’m not watching gold alone...

I’m watching gold + the dollar + bond yields + the Warsh message.

#gold. #الدهب #تداول #التداول #العملات_المشفرة #NFT #ANIME #Binance

Only then will the real picture of the next trend appear.