Looking at it calmly, this is not a coincidence, nor is it as simple as a major player dumping. In fact, the current crypto market is no longer the wild, free, and unregulated space it once was; it has been completely subsumed and transformed into a reservoir, a diversion, and a control mechanism within the U.S. financial system. Geopolitics, institutional funds, regulatory policies, and various unexpected black swan events can directly influence rises and falls, leaving retail investors exposed.
In this wave of market crashes, very few people could escape unscathed. After more than ten consecutive days of decline followed by a crash, how many people went all in, leveraged up, and within just a few days saw their accounts halved or even wiped out?
This time the crash doesn’t surprise me; the necessary premise of my sharing is that this drop is different because the structure has completely changed! It’s actually ringing a warning bell for everyone: don’t rely on past feelings or single-point analysis to go all in; don’t bet on one-sided movements, and don’t put all your wealth into something fundamentally unpredictable and uncontrollable. The only way to be stable, survive, and earn money is to do asset allocation in large cycles and long-term!
First, let me clarify the current situation: the biggest change in 2025 is not in prices but in structure. My understanding of structure may differ from yours, but look further down; in short, crypto is no longer your speculative tool but someone else's reservoir!
The decentralized anti-inflation independent market you fantasize about has long changed in reality.
Current crypto, especially mainstream coins, has been incorporated into the global mainstream financial framework, firmly held in the hands of the United States. Stablecoins are pegged to the dollar, ETFs hold pricing power, regulations delineate life and death lines, and institutional entries and exits determine price movements. It resembles a high-volatility risk reservoir—when the market has too much hot money, it gets stored; when liquidity needs tightening, it releases water to crush prices, geopolitical games, and financial hedging, all treated as tools.
What we see as wild swings essentially stems from macro movements, policy changes, and institutional reallocations. It has nothing to do with watching K-lines, guessing news, or betting on directions! I've shared my views on this before, and this is definitely not hindsight! In this pattern, if you still dare to go all in, dare to be fully invested, and dare to put everything in, it’s not bravery, it’s truly not understanding risk; it's sending your own money away.
Next, how to win? You must do asset allocation, with three most practical reasons.
1️⃣. Who can ensure that there won't be a black swan in 2026? One small incident could send you back to square one! What is the current risk in crypto? It's systemic risk. The manifestation is that when one drops, all drop; when one crashes, all crash, and there’s no safe haven.
If you are fully invested in altcoins and contracts, and encounter a drop like this year's beginning, your principal is gone, and you won't even have a chance to recover.
Doing allocation means spreading the money out: even if one or two categories drop severely, your overall assets won't suffer major damage and won't affect your lifestyle, won't force you to sell at a loss, and definitely won't lead to liquidation. Here, I'm only mentioning the method without going into detailed specifics, of course, considering cyclicality as well!
Look at the time on the chart: → If at this moment you only used 100,000, you’ve already tripled it within a year, right? Withdraw the principal and roll over the simple operations, $BNB $SOL $ETH each of them has at least about 10, right? At least 5000$ is enough for events, perpetual contracts, prediction markets, and memes, right? Even if you lose everything, you won't even blink; at least you’ll be calm!
2️⃣. We can't control external factors and can only rely on diversification to withstand them
Federal Reserve policies, dollar strength and weakness, regulatory statements, announcements from exchanges, and any slight movements internationally can instantly change the crypto landscape. These things are unpredictable, uncontrollable, and unavoidable. The only way is not to place bets on a single market or single variety. If it’s not bright on the east, it might be bright on the west; if one drops, another may stabilize, and an overall combination can withstand volatility without being taken away by a single incident.
3️⃣. Control your greed and impulsive hands, fundamentally reducing the risk of major losses
I've been a retail investor for 8 years, paying nearly seven figures in tuition. I know that the vast majority of losses are not due to not understanding the market, but rather not being able to control oneself: chasing highs, going all in, holding positions, adding to losing bets. High volatility easily amplifies human weaknesses. Asset allocation is discipline; set the proportions and rules in advance, execute at the right times, and don't look at emotions or temporary fluctuations. If you lock in your positions, you naturally won't act impulsively or gamble blindly; this is true risk control.
The third aspect is to talk about the benefits of asset allocation, which are practically three points:
1️⃣. Small pullback, sleep well, does not affect life
The core of allocation is not about making quick money but avoiding significant losses and maintaining stability. If a certain asset drops by 30%, your overall portfolio might only drop by 3% or 5%. You can work when you need to and live when you need to, without having to watch the market all day, without anxiety, without staying up late, and without waking up in the middle of the night to check for liquidation. The logic of doing allocations is no different from running a business; many business owners around me have seized the era's dividends over the past decade, begun cross-border integration, and grown rapidly. Now look at the entrepreneurs around, and it seems like some have taken too big steps and are struggling... Of course, I respect their spirit! My point is that focusing on asset allocation in this one area is enough! You can't have it both ways; if you know a little about everything, you won't grasp anything!
So, the old saying again: The highest realm of investment is not earning more, but holding steadily and living longer.
2️⃣. Always have money on hand, even if not much; dare to buy when it drops and stay calm when it rises.
Those who go all in tend to panic at the first drop, and when they panic, they sell at the lowest point. Those who allocate assets always maintain cash and liquidity, so when the market truly hits the bottom and presents great opportunities, they have the cash to pick up bargains rather than just watching. When there's no certainty, keeping stable liquid financial products on hand doesn't hinder planning!
3️⃣. Only long-term and larger cycles can earn real big money
I’ve experienced the road to wealth in large cycles, so I say that big money in crypto is never made from short-term trading but from holding. If you don’t believe it, feel free to criticize me. Bull-bear transitions, industry growth, institutional allocations, and liquidity cycles are all calculated annually, not daily or weekly. Only allocation + long-term can hold onto bottom chips and capture the complete big trend—not earning a little money and running, nor holding on after losing a lot.
Finally, how to act to be stable and to earn? I will share targeted practical methods later, but I can suggest first to strictly control the total position, focus on mainstream spot + a small amount of high-profit researched options. Don't listen to people saying the bull market is coming and rush all in; that’s harmful. You must at least understand fixed income, gold, stock tokens, and stablecoins! Only focus on large cycles, not short-term speculation, and don't guess tops and bottoms! Essentially, large cycles depend on a few things: liquidity environment, institutional movements, market sentiment, and bull-bear positions. A global detection system is enough! Only slowly allocate after market panic and significant drops!
Only reduce your positions in batches when the market is overheated and prices are soaring!
Use dollar-cost averaging and buy in batches, not all in at once, and don't guess the lowest point!
Hold on, hold for 1-3 years without being washed out by daily fluctuations
In the short term, you can't beat institutions, bots, or news; only large cycles are fair.
Long-term allocation remains stable, trade less and make fewer mistakes. [This may go against the wishes of exchanges, but not many people seriously read my articles.] Of course, long-term doesn't mean holding onto things without movement; it means not frequently meddling. Don't chase trends, don't play with new coins, and don't heavily invest based on news. The less you trade, the fewer mistakes you make, and the higher your long-term returns.
So can contracts be traded? Of course, but they should only be used as seasoning, not as the main dish. Most people lose in contracts because they treat them as their main business. My position on contracts: small hedging, a little gamble for pleasure, definitely not the main way to make money!
Lastly, the most heart-wrenching and truthful thing to say is that this wave of crashes in 2026 has already closed off the path: going all in is fatal, short-term trading is bound to lose, and betting on contracts is destined to blow up. Only asset allocation + large cycles + long-term can be the only way to survive, stabilize, and earn money.
Crypto is no longer the retail paradise it once was; it's now a battleground for institutions and macroeconomics. What we can do is not to fight with daggers but to safeguard our positions and make allocations suited to our circumstances, holding on for the long term, not being greedy, not gambling, and not acting impulsively. Gradually becoming rich is true wealth, and being stable is the ultimate victory!
Focus on understanding and not getting lost
