As predicted in my previous post
Bitcoin has seen a corrective move exactly as in the risk scenario that many of the brothers were worried about. However, the important question right now is not “How much has BTC dropped?” but:
Is this the bottom already, or is it only the first leg of a decline before the market completes the process of shaking out weak hands?
1. The cash flow is still leaning toward the selling side
Whales are still net selling.
The average investor has started bottom-fishing.
However, this buying volume is not enough to absorb the selling pressure from large orders.
More noteworthy is that:
The 5-day large money flow has turned negative by more than 5,600 BTC.
Unlike a few days ago when the 5-day money flow was still positive, the selling pressure has been lasting for many consecutive sessions now. This indicates that large investors are still reducing risk in the short term.
2. Institutional money flow is still not really stable
Not only trading data on Binance—the capital flows from Bitcoin ETF funds also show a similar picture.
In recent weeks, the Bitcoin Spot ETF funds have gone through a prolonged period of capital outflows. Although in the past few days there have been some sessions with capital being pulled back in, the trend is still not strong enough to confirm that institutional money has returned sustainably.
This implies that:
selling pressure from institutions has decreased compared to the most tense period,
but the new money flow is still not strong enough to form a clear uptrend.
3. Technical analysis
After dropping to around 61,800 USD, BTC saw buying strength that helped the price rebound to the 62,600 USD zone.
This is the first positive signal.
However:
Price is still below the EMA20.
Still below the EMA50.
Still below the EMA100
And it has also not yet broken above the EMA200.
This shows
The short-term downtrend has not yet been broken.
4. Momentum indicator
RSI has left the overbought zone.
This shows:
selling pressure is decreasing,
buying strength appears near the bottom,
But RSI is still not strong enough to confirm a new uptrend.
MACD
MACD is still below the 0 line.
The red histogram has narrowed.
This is a sign that selling pressure is gradually weakening.
But: MACD still hasn’t crossed upward.
In other words:
The market has only shifted from “strong decline” to “slow decline.”
Stochastic RSI
This is the most positive signal
Stochastic RSI has formed a bottom and started turning upward.
But you guys need to note:
A technical rebound doesn’t necessarily mean the market has formed a bottom.
5. Macro perspective
Besides technical factors, the market is still affected by external risks.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially involving the U.S. and Iran, continue to be a factor that could increase volatility if unexpected developments occur. During unstable periods, people often tend to reduce exposure to risky assets. Therefore, this is still a variable that needs to be monitored.
6. Will BTC have one last sweep?
From my personal point of view:
This possibility still remains.
It’s not because the chart looks bad. It’s because:
Large money is still selling.
The new ETF has only shown initial improvement signals; it hasn’t confirmed a strong return of capital inflows.
BTC still hasn’t reclaimed the key EMA zones on the 4H timeframe.
If in the next few sessions:
large inflows remain negative,
the price lost the 61,800 USD zone with high volume,
the probability that BTC will sweep down once more into lower support zones will increase.
7. Conclusion: avoid risk for you guys
The current market is facing a very important phase.
Technical indicators show that selling pressure has eased somewhat and short-term pullbacks may appear. However, the money-flow data indicates that you guys still haven’t really returned to strong buying.
Therefore, there isn’t enough basis to confirm that Bitcoin has formed a bottom.
In a period like the one we’re in now, the most important thing isn’t to try to pinpoint exactly where the bottom is. Instead, it’s to watch large money flow and manage risk. When institutional money and whales truly return, the probability of a sustainable uptrend is much higher than just relying on a short-term technical rebound.
BTCVN4 wishes you luck
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