📌 An 88-year-old Japanese man has been trading stocks for 69 years and made 1.8 billion. There are only two rules: if it drops 5% don’t touch it; if it drops 15% just buy with your eyes closed.
🍖 Chopper says:
This news has been brought up and recycled in China’s A-share market history before every bull market—again and again. The core logic is essentially an extreme version of a systematic investing (DCA) mindset. Take the SSE Composite Index (000001.SH) as an example: it’s currently hovering around the 3100 level, still some distance from the 2021 peak of 3700, but a 15% drop would bring it below 2600, which does get close to historical valuation “bottom” zones.
Such a strategy can indeed lower your average cost in one-direction down markets (for example, in 2018). But in a choppy, range-bound market, it’s easy to keep “going up and down on the elevator.” The risk is that if an individual stock falls like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (688981) did—down about 40% from its high—blindly adding shares can actually deepen your losses. Compared with the long-term bull-market backdrop of Japan’s stock market, China’s A-shares are much more volatile; applying it mechanically could be a trap.
You can also look at a similar logic in the CSI 300 ETF: over the past five years, whenever it fell more than 15%, the average rebound in the following six months was about 12%. But the 2022 episode dropped 23% before hitting bottom—so the timing for adding shares can’t be solved by simply “buying with your eyes closed.” If you really want to try it, set a strict upper limit for your position first, and don’t put your living expenses on the line.
#000001 #688981 #A股
🍖 Chopper says:
This news has been brought up and recycled in China’s A-share market history before every bull market—again and again. The core logic is essentially an extreme version of a systematic investing (DCA) mindset. Take the SSE Composite Index (000001.SH) as an example: it’s currently hovering around the 3100 level, still some distance from the 2021 peak of 3700, but a 15% drop would bring it below 2600, which does get close to historical valuation “bottom” zones.
Such a strategy can indeed lower your average cost in one-direction down markets (for example, in 2018). But in a choppy, range-bound market, it’s easy to keep “going up and down on the elevator.” The risk is that if an individual stock falls like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (688981) did—down about 40% from its high—blindly adding shares can actually deepen your losses. Compared with the long-term bull-market backdrop of Japan’s stock market, China’s A-shares are much more volatile; applying it mechanically could be a trap.
You can also look at a similar logic in the CSI 300 ETF: over the past five years, whenever it fell more than 15%, the average rebound in the following six months was about 12%. But the 2022 episode dropped 23% before hitting bottom—so the timing for adding shares can’t be solved by simply “buying with your eyes closed.” If you really want to try it, set a strict upper limit for your position first, and don’t put your living expenses on the line.
#000001 #688981 #A股