7.8 U.S. stocks｜Is the AI rebound another “fake fall”? Nasdaq falls another 1.2%
Last night (7/7), U.S. stocks changed course again. The Nasdaq had just risen 1.3% the day before, making everyone think AI was about to turn things around—then, all within a single trading day, it was dragged back to square one.
The Nasdaq fell another 1.2% to 25,818. The S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, and the Dow fell 0.25% . Internally, most stocks were actually up, but when AI chip stocks collapsed, they pulled the Nasdaq down with them.
The trigger came from Asia. Samsung Electronics plunged 6.9% during Seoul trading. Even though its Q2 guidance was actually strong, the market still reacted this way. That’s the market for you—AI stocks have surged globally so much that any small gust of news makes some people bolt for the exits.
Mizuho put it plainly: yesterday’s chip rebound was just another “head fake.”
AI deleveraging began last week.
What made matters worse were geopolitics and oil prices. The U.S. has resumed sanctions on Iranian oil, and tensions in the Middle East are flaring up again. WTI crude jumped to above $72, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury also surged to 4.55%. With both oil and interest rates rising, two heavy weights fall on overvalued tech stocks.
One thing worth noting: Nvidia rose by about 1% against the trend. What’s interesting is that it has only gained 6% this year—far behind “memory妖” stocks like SanDisk (+581%) and Micron (+228%).
But precisely because it didn’t go completely berserk, on a night when chips collectively weakened, it became a “safe haven.”
In short: this AI rally has entered a high-volatility phase where the situation changes “day by day,” with bulls and bears repeatedly strangling each other at elevated levels.
Don’t treat a one-day rebound as a signal of a reversal. The real timing marker will be this week’s Q2 earnings season. Market expectations are for S&P earnings growth of 24%, and tech’s even more explosive growth of 65%.
Delta and Pepsi will kick things off soon. Whether earnings can hold up against expectations at this ceiling level will determine whether the “momentum” in AI can continue—or not. #美股超话
Last night (7/7), U.S. stocks changed course again. The Nasdaq had just risen 1.3% the day before, making everyone think AI was about to turn things around—then, all within a single trading day, it was dragged back to square one.
The Nasdaq fell another 1.2% to 25,818. The S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, and the Dow fell 0.25% . Internally, most stocks were actually up, but when AI chip stocks collapsed, they pulled the Nasdaq down with them.
The trigger came from Asia. Samsung Electronics plunged 6.9% during Seoul trading. Even though its Q2 guidance was actually strong, the market still reacted this way. That’s the market for you—AI stocks have surged globally so much that any small gust of news makes some people bolt for the exits.
Mizuho put it plainly: yesterday’s chip rebound was just another “head fake.”
AI deleveraging began last week.
What made matters worse were geopolitics and oil prices. The U.S. has resumed sanctions on Iranian oil, and tensions in the Middle East are flaring up again. WTI crude jumped to above $72, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury also surged to 4.55%. With both oil and interest rates rising, two heavy weights fall on overvalued tech stocks.
One thing worth noting: Nvidia rose by about 1% against the trend. What’s interesting is that it has only gained 6% this year—far behind “memory妖” stocks like SanDisk (+581%) and Micron (+228%).
But precisely because it didn’t go completely berserk, on a night when chips collectively weakened, it became a “safe haven.”
In short: this AI rally has entered a high-volatility phase where the situation changes “day by day,” with bulls and bears repeatedly strangling each other at elevated levels.
Don’t treat a one-day rebound as a signal of a reversal. The real timing marker will be this week’s Q2 earnings season. Market expectations are for S&P earnings growth of 24%, and tech’s even more explosive growth of 65%.
Delta and Pepsi will kick things off soon. Whether earnings can hold up against expectations at this ceiling level will determine whether the “momentum” in AI can continue—or not. #美股超话