【Brazil is eliminated. Norway 2-1—this is the biggest dark horse of this tournament】
First, I need to admit my mistake:
I predicted that Brazil would beat Norway.
Brazil had a 53% chance of winning—I was betting on Brazil.
Result: Norway won 2-1, and Brazil is out.
This is currently the biggest dark horse of this World Cup.
Norway’s odds were 4.8x—the market implied the win probability was only about 20%.
Today, that 20% turned into 100%.
Five-time World Cup champions were knocked out in the Round of 16.
I’m sitting here with no excuses.
If I got it wrong, then I got it wrong.
But I want to talk about something important:
The fact that Norway beat Brazil in itself is not “abnormal.”
Its probability is 20%, not 0%.
The real issue isn’t “why did Brazil lose?”—
It’s whether your operating system has prepared a stop-loss for that 20%.
In investing, we call it: tail risk.
If you’re bullish on BTC, sure.
But have you set your stop-loss?
If you’re going long on some altcoin and the logic checks out—
is your position sized so that a loss won’t disrupt the bigger picture?
Brazil taught me today:
Even if your analysis is correct, the market always has the right to deliver the outcome of that 20%.
Only those who can survive that 20% can wait for the next time they’re right.
Also: England 3-2 Mexico also advanced smoothly.
👉 Where does Norway’s dark horse run go from here? Do you think they can make it to the semifinals?
(Predictions involve risk. Participate rationally. For entertainment purposes only, not investment advice.)#世界杯
First, I need to admit my mistake:
I predicted that Brazil would beat Norway.
Brazil had a 53% chance of winning—I was betting on Brazil.
Result: Norway won 2-1, and Brazil is out.
This is currently the biggest dark horse of this World Cup.
Norway’s odds were 4.8x—the market implied the win probability was only about 20%.
Today, that 20% turned into 100%.
Five-time World Cup champions were knocked out in the Round of 16.
I’m sitting here with no excuses.
If I got it wrong, then I got it wrong.
But I want to talk about something important:
The fact that Norway beat Brazil in itself is not “abnormal.”
Its probability is 20%, not 0%.
The real issue isn’t “why did Brazil lose?”—
It’s whether your operating system has prepared a stop-loss for that 20%.
In investing, we call it: tail risk.
If you’re bullish on BTC, sure.
But have you set your stop-loss?
If you’re going long on some altcoin and the logic checks out—
is your position sized so that a loss won’t disrupt the bigger picture?
Brazil taught me today:
Even if your analysis is correct, the market always has the right to deliver the outcome of that 20%.
Only those who can survive that 20% can wait for the next time they’re right.
Also: England 3-2 Mexico also advanced smoothly.
👉 Where does Norway’s dark horse run go from here? Do you think they can make it to the semifinals?
(Predictions involve risk. Participate rationally. For entertainment purposes only, not investment advice.)#世界杯