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Portugal is shaping up as the moderate favorite to win the Round of 16 match at the 2026 World Cup against Croatia. Opta Analystโ€™s supercomputer gives the Portuguese team a 54.5% chance of winning in the 90 minutes, compared to just 20.4% for the Croatians and 25.1% for a draw.

Key facts and match analysisTo understand why bookmakers and prediction models tip the balance toward the Portuguese side, the following essential points are considered:Dominant head-to-head: Portugal has a notable historical record against the Balkans. In 10 direct meetings throughout history, the Portuguese have recorded 7 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 loss. Also, they have never lost an official match against them (5 wins and 1 draw).Squad depth: Although there is debate about the performance of Portugalโ€™s starting XI as a unit, they have a roster of individual stars (such as Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Vitinha, or Rafael Leรฃo) and an elite bench capable of breaking the game in the final minutes.The Croatian mystique: Croatia canโ€™t be counted out, led by Zlatko Daliฤ‡. Croatia has proven to be a real "headache" in knockout stages, reviving the script of the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, where they advanced through long matches, extra time, and penalty shootouts.