🏆 2026 FIFA World Cup — Win Probabilities (as of June 24–25)
France leads the market at roughly 19% on Polymarket, followed by Argentina at 16%. (Polymarket)
France's odds sit at +413 on Kalshi to win the tournament. (Covers) Here's a broader picture:
Team
Implied Win % (approx.)
🇫🇷 France
~19%
🇦🇷 Argentina
~16%
🇪🇸 Spain
~14%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England
~13%
🇵🇹 Portugal
rising
🇩🇪 Germany
mid-tier#FIFA #ArgentinaEconomy"