Here's my honest take on what the market is mispricing right now.
Everyone — and I mean every single analyst, trader, newsletter, and Binance Square creator — is laser-focused on the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Rate hold or rate hike? Dovish dot plot or hawkish signal? Powell — sorry, Warsh — language at 2:30 PM ET?
And yes, it matters. But I'd argue it's the second most important event of the next two weeks, not the first.
The most important event is June 19 in Switzerland.
Think about it. The Fed meeting will likely produce a hold — 98% probability priced in. Even if Warsh is hawkish in language, the actual rate stays the same. The market has largely priced in "higher for longer." There's limited surprise upside or downside from the FOMC at this point.
But the Iran deal? The signing ceremony is set for June 19. WTI crude already dropped 3.2% to $84.88 on just the announcement of the signing ceremony. Brent fell 3.4%. mexc
If oil falls another 5–8% after the signing — which is entirely possible as the Hormuz premium unwinds — the next CPI print comes in meaningfully softer. That single data point changes the Fed's trajectory more than anything Warsh says tomorrow.
Lower oil → lower CPI → Fed pivot narrative resurrects → Bitcoin targets $70,000 → altcoins go absolutely feral.
Everyone's watching the Fed. The smart money is watching the oil market.
$BTC $OIL
DYOR. Not financial advice#OilPriceFalls #BTCSpotETFNetOutflowsFiveWeeks #TrumpWarnsFranceTradeWarOverDigitalServicesTax $BTC
