Iran and Israel are trading blows, Bitcoin dips to $63K: Rather than panic, I'd prefer to confirm if liquidity will switch
In the past few hours, Iran and Israel have launched missile strikes against each other, causing Bitcoin to tumble quickly from over $64K, at one point nearing the $63K mark. Although Trump has publicly called for peace, the market clearly isn't buying the talk—funds' first reaction is to lower leverage.
My first instinct isn't to see how much further Bitcoin can drop, but to check three synchronized indicators: the dollar index, crude oil prices, and changes in Bitcoin contract positions. In geopolitical conflicts, crypto has never been the first asset to price in; it usually moves passively alongside macro sentiment. If oil prices continue to rise, inflation expectations will resurface, and the interest rate path will tighten accordingly—this is the real transmission chain that can impact the crypto market.
At this stage, geopolitical news will come in waves, and prices will oscillate back and forth. My judgment is: in the short term, don’t just focus on Bitcoin's candlestick patterns; you should watch the attitude of funds after the US stock futures open. If risk assets continue to feel the pressure after the US market opens, this round of Bitcoin correction won't hold at $63K.
On the other hand, the search popularity of KONET is rapidly climbing the charts, indicating that some funds are trying to switch from mainstream coins to trending ones. This kind of signal can currently only serve as a reference for attention, not suitable for direct follow-ups. The real liquidity switch signal will need to be validated by both trading volume and open interest.
I'll first watch to see if oil prices can stabilize, and whether there are any new administrative actions or legislative updates this weekend. If the geopolitical situation doesn't escalate further, Bitcoin is likely to range between $62K and $65K; but if the conflict widens, funds will continue to concentrate on safe-haven assets.
#KONET #加密监管 #BTC #ETH #BNB
In the past few hours, Iran and Israel have launched missile strikes against each other, causing Bitcoin to tumble quickly from over $64K, at one point nearing the $63K mark. Although Trump has publicly called for peace, the market clearly isn't buying the talk—funds' first reaction is to lower leverage.
My first instinct isn't to see how much further Bitcoin can drop, but to check three synchronized indicators: the dollar index, crude oil prices, and changes in Bitcoin contract positions. In geopolitical conflicts, crypto has never been the first asset to price in; it usually moves passively alongside macro sentiment. If oil prices continue to rise, inflation expectations will resurface, and the interest rate path will tighten accordingly—this is the real transmission chain that can impact the crypto market.
At this stage, geopolitical news will come in waves, and prices will oscillate back and forth. My judgment is: in the short term, don’t just focus on Bitcoin's candlestick patterns; you should watch the attitude of funds after the US stock futures open. If risk assets continue to feel the pressure after the US market opens, this round of Bitcoin correction won't hold at $63K.
On the other hand, the search popularity of KONET is rapidly climbing the charts, indicating that some funds are trying to switch from mainstream coins to trending ones. This kind of signal can currently only serve as a reference for attention, not suitable for direct follow-ups. The real liquidity switch signal will need to be validated by both trading volume and open interest.
I'll first watch to see if oil prices can stabilize, and whether there are any new administrative actions or legislative updates this weekend. If the geopolitical situation doesn't escalate further, Bitcoin is likely to range between $62K and $65K; but if the conflict widens, funds will continue to concentrate on safe-haven assets.
#KONET #加密监管 #BTC #ETH #BNB