stablecoinx

Based on the correlation coefficient, can StablecoinX effectively replace @Ethena Labs as exposure to $ENA ?

Yesterday, we discussed how mNAV helps us understand the discount on $USDEB shares. Perhaps correlation coefficients can offer a better way to assess whether USDE is an adequate substitute for holding ENA.

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First, here’s how the accompanying chart was created:

➤ Data sources
Daily closing prices for ENA and USDE were both sourced from Yahoo Finance.

USDE mNAV, included as supplementary information, was sourced from EthenaDash.

➤ Statistical method
Pearson correlation

➤ Data processing
The data was fed to Grok AI, which was asked to calculate the monthly correlation coefficients and include mNAV.

➤ Chart creation
The basic chart generated by Grok AI, along with detailed data descriptions, was submitted to Gemini Argon to generate the final chart.

*Note 1: I did not manually input the data into statistical software to verify the results; these are for reference only.
*Note 2: June was excluded due to an insufficient sample size. October’s smaller sample size may also introduce statistical bias.

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My interpretation of the data

The data suggests that the market’s view of whether USDE can serve as a substitute position for ENA has evolved gradually.

After the combined listing at the end of June, July’s data showed that the two assets did not move very much in sync. This coincided with an extremely low mNAV, suggesting that the market had doubts about how closely the two were linked.

Starting in August, both mNAV and the correlation coefficient rose significantly, and their movements began to show a tendency to synchronize. However, the standard deviation indicates considerable volatility, suggesting that the market was still uncertain.

In September, the correlation coefficient reached 0.76, indicating greater market confidence in the relationship between the two. This also aligns with confidence-building developments, such as the 8-K on 9/17 and bStocks on 9/25.

Since October, volatility has been lower and mNAV has stabilized, but the correlation coefficient has dipped slightly. I believe this may be because the market is gradually recognizing that additional factors—such as unlock rules and filing documents—can have a meaningful impact on share prices.

Overall, I think the correlation figures are reasonable. Although statistically they remain some distance from a perfect positive correlation of 1, given that StablecoinX itself trades at a discount, an overall average correlation of around 0.6 represents a reasonably close relationship.

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● The content above does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own independent research and make investment decisions based on their personal objectives and risk tolerance. Please participate in the investment market with caution.
#USDeb #ENA #StablecoinX

Interpreting StablecoinX’s mNAV Changes

After following the ongoing research into StablecoinX over the past few days, it’s not hard to see why its mNAV has been hovering between 0.4x and 0.6x.

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“$USDEB stock is trading at a steep discount”—Are some market participants overstating the size of the discount?

In my earnings analysis yesterday, I concluded that cash flow revenue has no significant impact, and the stock’s valuation still depends on the amount of tokens per share (@Ethena Labs $ENA ).

But how should we interpret StablecoinX’s current mNAV of just 0.45x?

The key reasons:

➤ Different valuation perspectives

Many retail investors look at mNAV simply by comparing the value of ENA tokens with USDE’s market capitalization, which creates the illusion of a “steep discount.”

But after breaking down the sources of StablecoinX’s token holdings over the past few days, you’ll realize that:
“Its tokens were acquired at a discount, and some tokens don’t have a conventional cost basis” (if you missed this, you can catch up by reading my posts from the past few days).

This means that, for its early investors or related parties, 1x was never the benchmark, because they value it based on their own acquisition costs.

➤ Unlocking ≠ being able to sell

Another factor is that the market’s original perceived “catalyst”—the full unlocking of the tokens—has already been largely priced in.

Once the market recognizes the difference between the end of a token lock-up period and actually selling the tokens, it will revalue them based on factors such as liquidity, the price at which the tokens can be sold, and the proportion that can be converted to cash.

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Summary

Looking at historical mNAV fluctuations, I believe regulatory filings still have a significant impact, including both 10-Qs and 8-Ks.

If I had to estimate a potential peak or range for mNAV, I think 0.55x–0.65x is probably the upper limit at this stage.

Breaking through that ceiling would require a powerful re-rating catalyst, which seems unlikely.

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● The above content does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own independent research and make decisions based on their investment objectives and risk tolerance. Please exercise caution when participating in the investment market.

● The attached image is from EthenaDash (red markings added by the author).

#StablecoinX #USDeb #ENA #BStocks

How much operating revenue does StablecoinX have, and why does it affect its $ENA token holdings?

Many people use mNAV to assess the price of StablecoinX (ticker: $USDEB ), calculating whether its share price is undervalued based on the amount of tokens held per share (ENA).

I found in its 10-Q report (2026/6/30) that it actually has two other sources of revenue:

➤ Validator services
StablecoinX operates Ethereum validator nodes.

➤ DVN services
StablecoinX provides verification of the authenticity and finality of @Ethena Labs -related assets transferred across chains via LayerZero.

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The key point to watch is DVN

According to StablecoinX’s monthly summary published a few days ago, its DVN has processed around $6B in cross-chain transaction volume to date.

Under the contract signed between StablecoinX and Ethena OpCo., StablecoinX can charge a 0.01% service fee on the transaction volume it processes. The fee is denominated in U.S. dollars and paid in ENA.

In other words, StablecoinX’s token holdings should theoretically continue to grow.

*Note: The ~$6B corresponds to approximately $600,000 in revenue, but since the contract only took effect in 2026/4, the actual revenue generated is far lower.

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How should we understand DVN’s impact?

At present, nearly all revenue comes from DVN, but the scale is still very small.

Since DVN provides verification services for cross-chain activity, there are two key areas to watch:

➤ Whether Ethena-related assets such as $USDE USDtb continue to offer token incentives on different chains to encourage users to bridge assets

➤ Whether protocols such as Ethena, Aave, and Morpho maintain or increase lending capacity across different chains

In practice, however, I believe StablecoinX’s stock valuation still depends mainly on the size of its ENA treasury and how the market values treasury companies, rather than on this operating revenue.

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● The content above does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own independent research and make decisions based on their investment objectives and risk tolerance. Please participate in the investment market with caution.

● The attached image is from the SEC.

#StablecoinX #BStocks #USDeb #ENA

Breaking down StablecoinX’s board structure: How much influence does Ethena have?

To understand what practical purpose the common shares acquired by @Ethena Labs in exchange for $ENA serve, I looked up and read StablecoinX’s Form 8-K (2026/6/25).

Simply put, through its Class B common stock, Ethena has an overwhelming advantage in voting power.

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StablecoinX’s board has six members:

➤ Edward Chen (Chairman)
➤ Marc Piano (Director appointed by Ethena)
➤ Christopher Jensen (new CEO and director)
➤ John Griffiths (Independent Director)
➤ Alkesh Shah (Independent Director)
➤ Thomas Tarala (Independent Director)

Generally speaking, independent directors are appointed to meet regulatory compliance requirements, while substantive operations are primarily handled by executive directors.

Edward Chen (Ted Chen) was the Beneficial Owner of TLGY before its merger with StablecoinX. At the time of the merger, he initially served as CEO, then handed the role over to Christopher Jensen.

Under the current structure, after Christopher Jensen took over as CEO and secured a board seat, day-to-day operations were placed in the hands of a CEO with early ties to Ethena.

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However, TLGY still has some influence through its shareholding structure.

This is mainly concentrated in Edward Chen’s personal holdings and those of his affiliated entities, along with Young Cho’s personal holdings. Together, they account for about 33% of the Class B common stock.

As the parties behind the SPAC (which enabled StablecoinX to go public through a reverse merger), these two were naturally expected to retain a certain proportion of shares and voting rights after the merger.

Ethena (Ethena OpCo), meanwhile, later acquired approximately 1.8M Class B common shares by exchanging tokens for equity, and in doing so also gained 57.42% of the voting power, making it the controlling shareholder.

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To sum up:

➤ Ethena’s voting power from its Class B common stock allows it to influence matters requiring a shareholder vote, including the composition of the board and major strategic decisions.

➤ Although Ethena has appointed only one director to represent it, its aforementioned right to replace directors gives it a degree of influence on the board, which may be further strengthened by the new CEO’s appointment.

*Note: Class A common stock represents “economic interests,” such as share-price appreciation, dividend distributions, and liquidation rights. Under StablecoinX’s structure, however, it carries no voting rights.

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● The above content does not constitute investment advice
#StablecoinX

StablecoinX’s Form 8-K filings may become an important source of information for assessing the price of $ENA in the future

StablecoinX (ticker: $USDE ) will likely also announce any future plans to sell ENA as a material event via Form 8-K, similar in concept to MicroStrategy’s purchase of $BTC .

The investor token unlock on 10/5 also applies to tokens held by StablecoinX (which were originally subject to a 48-month lockup).

In other words, as many as 3.031 billion ENA (approximately 20% of the total supply) are now available for use.

However, according to the waiver letter signed by @Ethena Labs and StablecoinX, if StablecoinX wishes to sell, it must obtain approval from the Ethena Foundation before proceeding. Key details:

➤ StablecoinX may seek to sell tokens to meet operational needs or to support value-accretive initiatives for the Ethena ecosystem.

➤ StablecoinX must notify the Foundation five days in advance, providing details of the transaction, including the reason for the sale, the amount to be sold, the sale period, the minimum price, the executing party, and the counterparty.

➤ The Foundation has five business days to review the request and may choose to purchase all or part of the tokens first. If it neither responds nor objects, StablecoinX may proceed with the sale as notified.

*Note: The Foundation may object only in certain circumstances (such as an unreasonable use of proceeds, disruption to orderly markets, or illegality). If it objects, it must explain its reasons and negotiate in good faith.

In short, if StablecoinX sells tokens and the Foundation wishes to acquire them, its ENA would theoretically go to the Foundation first. This means the impact on the open market would not be direct.

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● The content above does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own independent research and make decisions based on their investment objectives and risk tolerance. Please participate in the investment market with caution.

● The attached image is from the SEC.

#StablecoinX #ENA #ethena #BStocks

📈 Nasdaq Bound: StablecoinX Merges With TLGY, Lists Friday
On June 26, 2026, StablecoinX announced it is betting on the Ethena ecosystem with its Nasdaq debut scheduled for Friday. The merger with TLGY marks a significant step for bridging traditional finance with DeFi.
This listing brings institutional-grade exposure to the Ethena ecosystem, potentially attracting traditional investors who have been hesitant to enter crypto directly.
📌 Key Takeaway:
StablecoinX's Nasdaq debut via TLGY merger is a landmark event for Ethena and the regulated stablecoin sector.
#StablecoinX #Ethena #Nasdaq
#BinanceAlphaAlert

Shares of Company #StablecoinX were listed today on the Nasdaq stock exchange — official statement
Ticker: $USDE
The company holds in its balance sheet approximately 3.029 billion #ENA (worth $275 million), i.e., about 20% of the total float.
StablecoinX was established as a public company to give investors access to the Ethena ecosystem by purchasing its shares on Nasdaq, without the need to buy ENA directly or hold digital currencies. The company entered the market through a merger with the special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) TLGY Acquisition Corp.
StablecoinX is developing the infrastructure for $USDE and #USDtb , distribution services, as well as a strategy to aggregate ENA tokens in its balance sheet.
Ethena Foundation also participates in the deal structure and collaborates with StablecoinX under a long-term agreement that will allow the company in the future to buy more ENA directly from #ethena at a discount

🚨 StablecoinX has revealed an ENA treasury of approximately 3 billion tokens, representing about 20% of ENA's total supply.

The Nasdaq-listed company's shares jumped more than 12% after its first quarterly results as a public company. At June 30, the ENA treasury was valued at approximately $218.4 million.

A massive ENA position is now putting StablecoinX firmly on the market's radar.

#ENA #Ethena #StablecoinX #CryptoNews #Crypto #Blockchain #DeFi #DigitalAssets

📈 TradFi Meets DeFi: StablecoinX Lists on Nasdaq
On June 26, 2026, StablecoinX completed its merger with TLGY and began trading on the Nasdaq. The listing marks a milestone for the Ethena ecosystem and represents one of the first major stablecoin-related entities to go public.
This development gives traditional investors exposure to the stablecoin economy without needing to hold crypto directly — a significant step toward mainstream adoption.
📌 Key Takeaway:
StablecoinX's Nasdaq listing creates a regulated bridge between traditional finance and the $260B stablecoin market.
#StablecoinX #Nasdaq #TradFi
#BinanceAlphaAlert

A veteran of Franklin Templeton makes a change of scenery.

Christopher Jensen leaves his position at the firm to lead StablecoinX.

It’s a striking move because StablecoinX is the largest corporate holder of the token $ENA de Ethena.

The experience of someone coming from a traditional asset manager into a project focused on digital assets says a lot about current interest.

What do you think of this hire?

#StablecoinX #Ethena #Crypto

Ethena S5 Airdrop Fully Unlocked—Did Those Who Didn’t Sell a Single Coin Come Out on Top?

@Ethena Labs The six-month linear vesting period for the Season 5 airdrop has ended (4/16–10/8). I claimed the tokens every few weeks and sold my sENA right away. I never imagined that $ENA would start climbing steadily from the end of August!

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A few key dates:

➤ 4/16
Initial unlock; price was around $0.10

➤ 6/11
The lowest price during the six-month linear vesting period, at around $0.07

➤ 9/28
The highest price during the six-month linear vesting period, at around $0.27

ENA is currently around $0.21, meaning its price is up +110% since the initial unlock.

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At the end of August, the Ethena Foundation officially announced that it would buy investors’ locked tokens through over-the-counter transactions. Potential sources of selling pressure to watch going forward include:

1. What the Ethena Foundation does with the tokens it acquires
2. The token activity of institutional investors who declined the buyout offer
3. The token activity of ENA treasury company StablecoinX

According to the official announcement, StablecoinX (ticker: $USDE.US ) is one of the two largest holders, accounting for about 20% of the total supply. Keep an eye on whether it sells any of its tokens.

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● The content above does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own independent research and make decisions based on their personal investment objectives and risk tolerance. Please exercise caution when participating in the investment market.

● Image source: TokenManager

#StablecoinX #BStocks #ethena #ENA走势分析

$USDEB

USDEB/USDT HIGH-RISK LONG SETUP

USDEB is trading around $12.29, down 11.20% today after a sharp sell-off. Price is now sitting close to the $12.18–$12.07 support zone, so this is a level where buyers could attempt a rebound.

Entry Zone
• EP1: $12.20–$12.35
• EP2: $12.05–$12.15

Take Profit
• TP1: $12.55
• TP2: $13.02
• TP3: $13.49
• TP4: $13.95

Stop Loss: $11.90

#USDEB #StablecoinX #USDEBUSDT #bStocks #Binance