$BTC today‼️ Americans are selling. The Coinbase Premium Index continued to post negative readings today. I previously noted that the conditional support line at $78,600 is likely to be broken; selling intensified on Friday. Eric Trump said he'll buy back the dips, so here they are. We made at least a 15% profit on this correction from a short trade.
Many online didn't appreciate my bearish sentiment; some even unsubscribed. Funny.
For the past week, I've been analyzing the formation and impact of negative macroeconomic data on Bitcoin's price, as well as the impact of the unstable geopolitical situation.
I'm most concerned about data from the Bank of Japan, which is signaling a possible rate hike in the fall, which is just around the corner.
However, the outflow from Bitcoin ETFs is slowing just as BTC is testing its 200-day moving average.
Net outflows from ETFs over the past eight days amounted to approximately 17,000 BTC. This doesn't yet put an end to the overall uptrend.
However, this does indicate that investors are becoming more cautious amid rising inflation and bond yields.
I expected the price to reach $77,100; the bulls fought fiercely for this support level on February 2nd, and I believe this situation will repeat itself.
This means we can trade the rebound, with no more than a 7-10% profit. Don't be greedy; the market allows for profits, but not large percentages.
On the hourly timeframe, the price has already fallen below the 200-week moving average, while on the 4-hour timeframe, the bulls are still maintaining momentum. However, I believe the weekend data is inaccurate, and Monday will reveal the extent of liquidity dumping, which is when the correction could intensify. However, keep an eye on the counter-trade and the possibility of a gap forming in Bitcoin this weekend.
I successfully sold POL, PUMP, and TON. I told you about it. Look how these tokens have corrected. Now I'm looking for a profitable entry point.
Today's News‼️ ⭕️ Fear/Greed Index: 49 - neutral; ⭕️ Altcoin Season Index: 20; 🔴 Total BTC ETF Flow: +$131.32M; 🔴 Total ETH ETF Flow: -$5.63M; 🔴 25,029 BTC options expire with a put-call ratio of 0.58, a maximum pain point of $80,000, and a notional value of $2.037 billion; 🔴 274,651 ETH options expire with a put-call ratio of 0.39, a maximum pain point of $2,300, and a notional value of $0.629 billion; 🔴 Bitcoin is facing concentrated selling pressure near the $82,000 mark, which includes the 200-day moving average. Failure to break this level could result in a price drop to $75,000. The $82,000 level represents a confluence of the ascending channel's overhead resistance and the 200-day moving average; 🔴 Altcoin Vector: ETH ETF flows posted their best year-to-date performance in April. Despite this, overall, ETH ETFs still distributed more ETH in 2026 than they accumulated: Net flows in 2026: -324,000 ETH; 🔴 GEMINI Exchange raised a $100 million strategic investment from Winklevos Capital at $14 per share; 🔴 Kraken will replace LayerZero (due to a hack) with Chainlink to enable cross-chain asset connectivity; 🔴 CEO Charles Schwab confirmed the launch of crypto trading for physicists this week; 🔴 Interactive Brokers, in partnership with Kalshi, CME Group, and ForecastEx, is launching a prediction markets platform; 🔴 CME Group will launch futures on the Nasdaq CME crypto index.
Today's News‼️ ⭕️ Fear/Greed Index: 46 - fear; ⭕️ Altcoin Season Index: 29; 🔴 Total BTC ETF Flow: -$630M; 🔴 Total ETH ETF Flow: -$36.25M; 🔴 Buying Bitcoin when the ISM PMI was below 50 produced higher investment returns across almost all time horizons compared to periods when it was above 50; 🔴 Analyst: Negative effects of reduced liquidity could become apparent in the coming days. This decline could lead to a weakening of Bitcoin until the end of June; 🔴 JPMorgan Chase estimates that Bitcoin purchases under the Strategy program could reach $30 billion this year; 🔴 The unrealized profit rate of Bitcoin traders reached 17.7% – the highest since June 2025 – as BTC tested its 200-day moving average; 🔴 Eric Trump stated that his company, American Bitcoin, intends to overtake Michael Saylor's Strategy in BTC acquisition, not in an absolute race, but by buying coins during dips, at the lowest price; 🔴 The Bank of England will loosen regulation on stablecoins after industry pressure – FT; 🔴 Alchemy Pay joins Mastercard's program to expand its range of crypto payment services; 🔴 Societe Generale plans to launch its dollar and euro stablecoins on the Canton Network, which is designed for the tokenization of RWAs and the integration of TradFi into crypto; 🔴 Sentiment: Key participants in the Cardano ecosystem have been slowly but surely increasing their positions since December 2023, consistently adding more and more tokens from the existing supply to their wallets; 🔴 The yield on 10-year Japanese bonds just reached its highest level this century.
$BTC today‼️ On May 11th, the bulls' last attempt failed to reverse the trend. The 33% profit pattern in Bitcoin's price likely formed a local top.
I also sold POL, SOL, and PUMP, as I don't see any buying power. Note how sharply the price of these tokens corrected. I'll be buying these tokens again, but I need a better entry point.
Yesterday, I noted a change in the trajectory of the 200-week moving average on the price chart. Many sold above $80,000, while others remained in the "bull trap," so selling pressure is growing.
Macroeconomic data is being clouded by empty promises of impending economic growth (although many countries have begun to consider tighter monetary policy, allowing the tech sector to grow), adding to the growth of the S&P 500.
The negative geopolitical situation is devouring an insane amount of money. As always, we are closely monitoring and trading. I wish everyone profits💰💪
fear_greed
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$BTC today‼️ On February 7th, I published a post about a likely repeat of the Bitcoin price rise scenario, as it had happened the previous two times (indicated by the red lines). At the time, I suggested that the Bitcoin price had formed a local bottom and would then begin to rise by 20-35%. Three months have passed, and as you can see from the price chart, my prediction has come true. The price is currently up 29%, or 290% with 10x leverage.
My trading idea relied on increased demand from major market participants upon reaching $60,000-58,000. I then drew a hypothetical 200MA movement, and now it's following my line exactly, surprisingly.
My maximum bullish values are at ~35% or $84,500 (the CME price gap).
At the same time, I was buying POL, SOL, and ETH, speculating on potential price growth in the medium term with Bitcoin's upward price movement.
Now I'm expecting an opportunity to sell these tokens.
However, I'm not abandoning my bearish forecast, as I believe this price movement is a "short-selling campaign."
At the same time, I'm paying particular attention to weak macroeconomic data, which is exacerbated by the unstable geopolitical situation.
To summarize, I believe a successful strategy right now is intraday trading (given the short-term bullish trend), taking a 10-15% profit with 10x leverage, and of course using stop-losses.
Today's News‼️ ⭕️ Fear/Greed Index: 50 - neutral; ⭕️ Altcoin Season Index: 33; 🔴 Total net inflows into ETH ETFs: -$130.6M; 🔴 Analyst: Bitcoin's intrinsic volatility is at multi-year lows, while speculators' short positions have reached record levels. Signs of a "short squeeze"; 🔴 Bitmine holds a massive ETH reserve, with around 90% staked; 🔴 JPMorgan launches a tokenized money market fund on the Ethereum blockchain; 🔴 Altcoin dominance: "Golden cross" expected in Q3 2026, Q1 2026 has likely become a unique buying opportunity and the best opportunity in the crypto market since 2019/2020. Macroeconomic risk indicators clearly pointed this out in Q1; 🔴 According to Pavel Durov, the TON network currently has 400 validators on six continents, and the expansion of Telegram's validator network allows major exchanges and depositories to participate in TON staking without increasing the risk of centralization; 🔴 Address activity on the Chainlink network has jumped to an eight-month high, according to Santiment; 🔴 Solana has launched a major Alpenglow update, reducing transaction completion times and increasing network responsiveness; 🔴 The UAE has authorized payment of government fees and taxes in crypto; 🔴 BofA has begun actively hiring crypto specialists – monitoring; 🔴 Ripple Prime has received $200 million in new funding from Neuberger Berman to expand its services for investors trading in traditional and crypto markets; 🔴 Spot trading volume of tokenized shares in the first quarter of 2026 was $15.1 billion, exceeding the total volume in the second half of 2025, which was $14.8 billion - monitoring.
Today's News‼️ ⭕️ Fear/Greed Index: 47 - neutral; ⭕️ Altcoin Season Index: 35; 🔴 Total net inflows into BTC ETFs: -$98.2M; 🔴 Total net inflows into ETH ETFs: -$103.5M; 🔴 Sentiment: Bitcoin holders are declining at the fastest pace in nearly two years, likely due to profit-taking by retail traders. The number of Bitcoin wallets has fallen by 245,000 in 5 days, the largest decline since the summer of 2024; 🔴 The inflow ratio on Bitcoin exchanges jumped to 0.08, indicating increased activity on both the demand and supply sides; 🔴 Ethereum's share of total collateral (TVL) in DeFi has fallen below 54%, the lowest since May 2025; 🔴 Aptos is investing an additional $50 million in developing its financial AI infrastructure; 🔴 Kraken is acquiring Reap Technologies, a provider of cross-border and corporate stablecoin payments, for $600 million. The acquisition will bolster its expansion into Asian markets; 🔴 The tokenized stock market is gaining momentum. The market capitalization of tokenized stocks has grown 35-fold compared to last year; 🔴 While the S&P 500 is reaching record highs, US consumer sentiment is near an all-time low; 🔴 The US M2 money supply has reached a new all-time high of $22.7 trillion.
Pump today‼️ This token trade brings in at least 15% profit. I bought based on the news about this token, and I believe that if Bitcoin continues to move sideways, the token's price will rise to at least 30% profit. I sold TON today, probably too early, because my strategy doesn't yield more than 25% profit in a bear market. Don't be greedy.
POL today‼️ If Bitcoin continues to move sideways throughout the day, maintaining the potential for liquidity accumulation, I believe the POL price could reach: TP: $0.112/TP: $0.013.
I also posted positive news regarding Polygon in my daily news post.
Today's News‼️ ⭕️ Fear/Greed Index: 50 - neutral; ⭕️ Altcoin Season Index: 29; 🔴 Total net inflow into the BTC ETF: +$467.38 million; 🔴 Total net inflow into the ETH ETF: +$97.58 million; 🔴 Morgan Stanley acquired 151.9 $BTC worth $12.4 million. 🔴 They now hold 2,830 $BTC worth $228.94 million in their portfolio; 🔴 Vivek Ramaswamy's Strive Asset Management purchased an additional $34 million in BTC, bringing their BTC holdings to over 15,000 coins; 🔴 Bitcoin is in overbought territory for the fourth time in the last year, according to the 1-day RSI; 🔴 BTC dominance relative to altcoins has risen to its highest since July 2025; 🔴 Standard Chartered acquired a stake in crypto market maker GSR; 🔴 Polygon Labs has implemented secure payments for USDC and USDT in its wallet, allowing users to send funds privately through the Hinkal system instead of standard transfers; 🔴 Sentiment: The number of active addresses on the Solana network has decreased from a peak of 5.01 million in early February to just 2.89 million in the past week; 🔴 Google Cloud and the Solana Foundation have launched a new "pay-as-you-go" payment system for AI agents; 🔴 Blackrock's Securitize, Jump Trading Group, and Jupiter are launching fully regulated tokenized stock trading on the blockchain.
$BTC today‼️ On February 7th, I published a post about a likely repeat of the Bitcoin price rise scenario, as it had happened the previous two times (indicated by the red lines). At the time, I suggested that the Bitcoin price had formed a local bottom and would then begin to rise by 20-35%. Three months have passed, and as you can see from the price chart, my prediction has come true. The price is currently up 29%, or 290% with 10x leverage.
My trading idea relied on increased demand from major market participants upon reaching $60,000-58,000. I then drew a hypothetical 200MA movement, and now it's following my line exactly, surprisingly.
My maximum bullish values are at ~35% or $84,500 (the CME price gap).
At the same time, I was buying POL, SOL, and ETH, speculating on potential price growth in the medium term with Bitcoin's upward price movement.
Now I'm expecting an opportunity to sell these tokens.
However, I'm not abandoning my bearish forecast, as I believe this price movement is a "short-selling campaign."
At the same time, I'm paying particular attention to weak macroeconomic data, which is exacerbated by the unstable geopolitical situation.
To summarize, I believe a successful strategy right now is intraday trading (given the short-term bullish trend), taking a 10-15% profit with 10x leverage, and of course using stop-losses.
Wishing everyone profits💰💪
fear_greed
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$BTC today‼️ If you're reading my feed, then you've followed me through this part of the Bitcoin price action.
We traded each move quite successfully.
The other day, I predicted that bears would continue to press down to the 200-week moving average ($58,000).
The price chart shows imaginary lines after each major correction.
Further, I predicted that the price would begin to recover.
The first time, the price recovered by 118%, the second by 73%. Now, I believe the price will recover by 20 to 35%, after which it will continue to decline.
This assumption is based on the crowd reaction after a correction, when many players try to buy the asset at a local bottom.
Buyer power decreases based on the length of each downward channel. But as soon as many people start opening massive short trades, the trend will reverse.
This has always been the case and will continue to be the case.
Today's News‼️ ⭕️ Fear/Greed Index: 49 - neutral; ⭕️ Altcoin Season Index: 31; 🔴 Total net inflows into BTC ETFs: +$532.19 million; 🔴 Total net inflows into ETH ETFs: +$61.3 million; 🔴 Total net inflows into BTC ETFs: +$3.3 million; 🔴 Bitwise: Corporates increased BTC balance sheet purchases to a record high in Q1 2026; 🔴 Glassnode, like Santiment, notes a surge in profit-taking in BTC by short-term holders; 🔴 Santiment: Overall Bitcoin network activity has fallen to a two-year low, despite the fact that the $BTC price has returned above $80,000 in three months; 🔴 CME has launched AVAX futures; 🔴 South Korea's largest crypto exchange, Upbit, has partnered with Optimism; 🔴 CME has launched SUI futures.
$BTC today‼️ I made at least a 20% profit today if you used my forecasts in your trading. This is not financial advice.
I don't like that the price isn't supported by strong on-chain data or positive economic indicators.
This week, there's a jobless report (as well as other data), which could potentially put pressure on the Bitcoin price, meaning the bulls.
A preliminary assessment of the overall economic situation suggests weakness, given geopolitical events and the lack of clarity in the medium-term outlook. Despite the rising S&P 500 and the dynamics of high-tech markets, I believe there are signs of a corrective price movement behind the "muddy screen." Essentially, any negative event in the geopolitical arena nullifies technical analysis, so I'm bearish in the medium term.
Currently, the chart shows a break in the conditional lower line of the ascending channel; there's no buying force behind the sharp price surge. I'm in a short trade with stop-losses.
I wish everyone profits💰💪
fear_greed
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$BTC today💪 Bitcoin's price continued its upward movement on positive news, forming a "bull trap." I wrote in a previous post that large capital would sell off this news. The price has returned to a conventional ascending trading channel. I'm looking for confirmation at $79,800; if it breaks, I'll switch to a "bearish scenario."
Today's News‼️ ⭕️ Fear/Greed Index: 49 - fear; ⭕️ Altcoin Season Index: 37; 🔴 Amy Oldenburg stated that American banks will eventually hold BTC on their balance sheets, but this will require approval from the Federal Reserve; 🔴 The NYSE has filed with the SEC to amend its rules to allow trading of tokenized securities; 🔴 Over the past four days, whales have accelerated their buying, purchasing 140,000 ETH-Santiment; 🔴 The Ethereum Foundation announced that it sold 10,000 ETH to Tom Lee's BitMine over the counter; 🔴 HyperLiquid has launched event voting on BTC price changes; 🔴 Investment in computer hardware has reached 1.2% of GDP. This is higher than during the dot-com bubble.
#data today‼️ The presented materials offer a look at the state of the US stock market through the lens of Goldman Sachs data, highlighting the paradoxical combination of record-high S&P 500 performance and growing skepticism among professional investors.
Despite strong earnings growth and frequent forecast beats, the market is hardly rewarding companies for positive earnings, and the overall growth rate remains negative. Hedge funds are actively reducing risks in the technology sector and reducing the share of US stocks in their portfolios to historical lows, favoring emerging markets such as Korea and Taiwan.
Amid the collapse of correlations between individual stocks and the index, investors are increasingly using options to hedge against a possible downside, anticipating an inevitable correction. At the same time, record inflows into ETFs linked to semiconductors and artificial intelligence are underscoring the continued interest in under-resourced growth areas. Overall, sources describe the situation as "investor paralysis," in which a seemingly calm market conceals high internal volatility and a massive reassessment of risks.
$BTC today💪 Bitcoin's price continued its upward movement on positive news, forming a "bull trap." I wrote in a previous post that large capital would sell off this news. The price has returned to a conventional ascending trading channel. I'm looking for confirmation at $79,800; if it breaks, I'll switch to a "bearish scenario."
Wishing everyone profits💰💪
fear_greed
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$BTC today‼️ A long trade yielded at least 40% profit if you used our trading ideas.
Classic price movement amid apathy and negative news. Everyone wants to sell good news.
ETF flows turned positive on April 30th. If this trend continues tomorrow, I'll remain optimistic, hoping for a sideways price movement.
The trend of accumulating liquidity in Bitcoin will allow market participants to invest additional liquidity in altcoins, which will be reflected in the price chart through short-term surges. Therefore, technical analysis is a successful analysis model during such market stages.
Our chance to make money.
If short-term demand for Bitcoin trading persists, as reflected in the upward trajectory of the 200-week moving average, the price may return to the boundaries of the hypothetical trading channel.
Be aware of the possibility of a "bull trap" and set stop-losses!
$BTC today‼️ A long trade yielded at least 40% profit if you used our trading ideas.
Classic price movement amid apathy and negative news. Everyone wants to sell good news.
ETF flows turned positive on April 30th. If this trend continues tomorrow, I'll remain optimistic, hoping for a sideways price movement.
The trend of accumulating liquidity in Bitcoin will allow market participants to invest additional liquidity in altcoins, which will be reflected in the price chart through short-term surges. Therefore, technical analysis is a successful analysis model during such market stages.
Our chance to make money.
If short-term demand for Bitcoin trading persists, as reflected in the upward trajectory of the 200-week moving average, the price may return to the boundaries of the hypothetical trading channel.
Be aware of the possibility of a "bull trap" and set stop-losses!
I wish everyone profit💰💪
fear_greed
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$BTC today‼️ Bitcoin's price movement is typical. The profit was at least 20%. We tested the conventional lower line of the ascending trading channel, and the price resumed its correction. There are no bulls left at $77,200, as I wrote about in my recent publications.
I'll update my medium-term forecast tomorrow, but for now, let's enjoy the profit from the short trade.
One guy continues to add fuel to the fire after luring the crowd at $79,200.
By the way, news from the Bank of Japan almost always works.
If the market maintains its pessimistic sentiment, the next short trade target is $73,500.
Today's News‼️ ⭕️ Fear/Greed Index: 39 - fear; ⭕️ Altcoin Season Index: 41; 🔴 Total BTC ETF Flow: -$137.6M; 🔴 Total ETH ETF Flow: -$87.8M; 🔴 In Q1 2026, the volume of Bitcoin held by "convinced buyers" grew by 69%—from 2.13 million to 3.60 million BTC—and reached its highest level since 2020; 🔴 Bitfinex: During the most volatile geopolitical period of this cycle, $BTC's market share grew from 39.6% to 60.63%. Every major upheaval in this cycle has led to a capital flow into Bitcoin; 🔴 Coinbase announced it is implementing a quantum-resistant security system; 🔴 South Korean crypto exchange Bithumb is switching to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC); 🔴 A sharp influx of BTC is observed on CryptoQuant exchanges; 🔴 The Kingdom of Bhutan continues to actively sell its BTC — Arkham; 🔴 Visa has added five new blockchains to its global stablecoin settlement pilot project: Arc, Base, Canton, and Polygon; 🔴 Ripple and OKX exchange have partnered to expand the use of the RLUSD stablecoin; 🔴 The first ETFs from the "prediction market" family could launch in the US as early as next week; 🔴 Visa has added Polygon to its global stablecoin settlement program; 🔴 Under Powell's leadership, the Fed has increased the money supply by nearly $9 trillion.
$BTC today‼️ Bitcoin's price movement is typical. The profit was at least 20%. We tested the conventional lower line of the ascending trading channel, and the price resumed its correction. There are no bulls left at $77,200, as I wrote about in my recent publications.
I'll update my medium-term forecast tomorrow, but for now, let's enjoy the profit from the short trade.
One guy continues to add fuel to the fire after luring the crowd at $79,200.
By the way, news from the Bank of Japan almost always works.
If the market maintains its pessimistic sentiment, the next short trade target is $73,500.
Wishing everyone profits💰💪
fear_greed
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$BTC today‼️ For several days, I've been warning you about a price correction to the lower boundary of the hypothetical ascending trading channel and explaining the reasons for the decline. I hope you made money. The profit was at least 15% on the short trade.
As I predicted, the Bank of Japan's tightening monetary policy has caused negative sentiment among market participants. We're seeing moderate economic data, but there's a battle and a split in the background.
The upward trajectory of the 200-week moving average (H1) is breaking down. If the bulls fail to hold above $77,200, the trading channel will likely break, and a correction similar to November 2018 will begin.
I'm short. This is not financial advice.
Furthermore, there are large outflows from the BTC ETF and ETH ETF today.
$BTC today‼️ For several days, I've been warning you about a price correction to the lower boundary of the hypothetical ascending trading channel and explaining the reasons for the decline. I hope you made money. The profit was at least 15% on the short trade.
As I predicted, the Bank of Japan's tightening monetary policy has caused negative sentiment among market participants. We're seeing moderate economic data, but there's a battle and a split in the background.
The upward trajectory of the 200-week moving average (H1) is breaking down. If the bulls fail to hold above $77,200, the trading channel will likely break, and a correction similar to November 2018 will begin.
I'm short. This is not financial advice.
Furthermore, there are large outflows from the BTC ETF and ETH ETF today.
Wishing everyone profits💰💪
fear_greed
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$BTC today‼️ The 200-week moving average (H1) continues its upward movement, once again confirming the importance of this indicator, which reflects short-term positive market sentiment. Meanwhile, the price, under bullish pressure, is holding at the peaks of a hypothetical ascending trading channel. Amid geopolitical risks, it's worth noting a short-term increase in cryptocurrency market liquidity, meaning a flow of liquidity from one market to another. BTC ETF data confirms this.
However, it's worth noting the first outflow of the ETH ETF in 8 days. I'm currently considering a probable price move toward $75,600. I believe profit-taking at prices around $80,000 and the euphoria reported are among the reasons for the correction. A short position is already profitable. A stop-loss is required. This is not financial advice.