For-Exx Kripto

$XRP has touched the upper line of the horizontal range again and is currently at 1.4635, which makes one think it could be a very good short opportunity with a stop loss at 1.61.

$LUNC managed to climb back above the 10000 level, and although it's facing downward pressure, buyers are somehow managing to push it above 10000, which is leading to positive sentiment. If it closes above 10000 today, it will have closed above this important resistance level for two consecutive days.

Ripple ($XRP ) sits at an interesting juncture: the legal cloud has cleared, the SEC case is closed, and spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 with over a billion dollars in inflows. Yet price stays well below 2025 highs, stuck in a narrow band. Institutions buy while retail sells — and the question is why demand isn't translating into price.

Where the pressure comes from

Ripple's monthly escrow unlocks keep adding fresh supply, and even with partial re-locking the net is non-trivial. On-chain data shows network usage declining for years — new addresses and active users are cooling. RLUSD has failed to gain traction against USDT and USDC, weakening the payment-rail demand thesis. The macro backdrop is hostile: the Fed's hawkish stance and tighter liquidity compress the entire risk curve. ETF inflows have also slowed from launch pace.

What a rally needs

The structural story is intact; it waits for a trigger. Key catalysts: sustained ETF inflows, U.S. market-structure legislation, RLUSD integration with banking rails in Asia, real growth in Ripple's ODL volume, and exchange balances staying low. Add a macro shift — the Fed pivoting to clear cuts, dollar liquidity expanding — and a breakout becomes more probable. Longer term, the post-2028 BTC halving cycle and Ripple's U.S. banking license are the next-tier references.

Expectations

Standard Chartered has trimmed its aggressive target; desks like Bitrue sit more conservative; bears argue lower on declining network use. The base case for 2026–2027 is a gradual step up from the current band, but a parabolic move requires the full catalyst chain to align.

Bottom line

XRP's narrative has evolved from "legally troubled token" to "institutional infrastructure asset." For markets to price that in, two things are needed: hard evidence of real-world usage growth, and a macro backdrop supporting risk appetite. With both, a rally isn't a surprise. Without either, price stays where institutional buying just offsets retail selling.

US CPI Preview — May 12, 12:30 (UTC +0)

Consensus: Headline +0.6–0.7% m/m, 3.7–3.8% y/y (March: 0.9%/3.3%). Core +0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y. One-off shelter/OER adjustment from the fall shutdown adds noise. Post-ceasefire Brent drop (118→92) mostly shows up in May data, not April. BofA sees no Fed cuts in 2026; market already hawkish.

Hot print (headline 3.8%+ or core 2.8%+)
Backdrop: DXY sharply up, 10Y yields up, equities down, small caps hit hardest.
Gold: classic reflex is down on stronger dollar and higher real rates, but inflation-hedge demand provides a floor — early drop, late-session recovery is the common pattern.
Bitcoin: down. Risk-off plus tighter-liquidity narrative is a bad mix for crypto; altcoins sold harder. Core at 2.9%+ sets up a 5–8% $BTC  selloff window.

In-line print (3.7% / 2.7%)
Base case. Composition matters more than the headline — super-core, organic shelter trend, tariff pass-through into goods are the focus.
Gold: rangebound, but the 2026 uptrend keeps dip buyers active.
Bitcoin: muted reaction; crypto-specific catalysts (ETF flows, regulation) take over.

Cool print (headline below 3.5% or core 2.5%)
Backdrop: DXY down, yields drop sharply, strong equity rally led by growth and small caps. Goldilocks narrative back.
Gold: best setup of the three — falling real rates + weak dollar + Fed easing hopes is the perfect trio.
Bitcoin: one of the year's strongest reactions possible. BTC's macro-liquidity sensitivity is sharp in 2026; core at 2.5% or below is enough for 4–7% upside near-term. Altcoins outperform via beta.

Watch list: super-core (Fed's favorite), shelter (one-off adjustment), core goods (tariff trace), airfares (secondary energy effect).

Positioning: asymmetry tilts toward a cool surprise. Consensus is already very hawkish, so a soft print sparks a larger relief rally. Best mix for BTC and gold: cool data + ceasefire holding.
#CPI

I have repeatedly written that I have been bearish on $FLOKI since the beginning of January, starting from the 5535 level, with the main target being 1603. Since then, it has fallen by 53% and found support at its lowest level of 2613. However, the chart shows that positive signals have started to appear in FLOKI. If it breaks above 4031, it could rise to the 6100 levels where it started to decline. Let's see if it reaches 4031 first, no rush...

$XRP has been stuck in the range I previously marked with a turquoise dashed line, between 1.28 and 1.52, for the past four months. These two levels work well for those shorting or longing, in both directions.

$BTC bounced above the support line I previously marked at 79150, and is currently trading sideways. The US CPI (inflation) data is due on Tuesday, and the markets may remain relatively flat until then, assuming there are no developments on the Iranian side.

$USTC keeps touching the trend support I drew in pink and bouncing upwards, it has worked so far. $LUNC also seems to have overcome its intraday weakness a bit, I pay more attention to its weekday movements because the volume decreased over the weekend.

The $LUNC coin has risen approximately 175% since April 24th and has also experienced a correction of about 30% from its peak, which is a healthy increase. As long as it stays above 8200, I predict it will erase the zero again and rise above 10000, but if 8200 is broken, the whole scenario will be ruined. It's normal for it to be trading sideways because it's the weekend. The chart still looks positive; there's no reason to think negatively.

Tomorrow at 12:30 UTC – April NFP data

Forecast: 65K (previous 178K) | Unemployment: 4.3% | Wages: +0.3% MoM

Scenarios:
- 60–95K → Goldilocks. $BTC , gold and equities up, DXY weak, September cut stays on the table
- Above 130K → Hawkish shock. Strong dollar, pressure on crypto-gold, cut expectations pushed to 2027
- Below 40K/negative → First reaction is dollar weakness, crypto-gold bid. If too weak, equities turn into recession sell-off
- Low NFP + high wages → Stagflation. All risk assets under pressure, only gold decouples

After March's 178K shock beat, the market is pricing in some payback; positioning is tilted dovish. That makes an upside surprise an asymmetric risk. The real focus isn't the headline — it's revisions + average hourly earnings.
#adppayrollssurge

I pointed out earlier today that there was a trend and resistance intersection at the 10,000 point for $LUNC ; it hit there, and sellers suppressed buyers. Pay attention to the orange line; LUNC keeps hitting its head and going down. It needs to get out from under that trend line pressure. Drops to the 8,200 level can be considered normal, but if it breaks that point, problems will begin. Right now, there's no problem because it's above that level.

$BTC is trading weakly today, but that doesn't mean much to me; I think its movement after tomorrow's non-farm payrolls data is more important. Yesterday, I added one last short position to bitcoin at the 82,000 level, and from now on I'm just watching; my target is clear.

Let me explain what the 10000 level means for $LUNC today. We are currently at the point of both a mini downtrend and the zero-wipe threshold. If it breaks above the orange downtrend and surpasses that point, it could test the 12,200 peak again. Let's see how strong the buyers are?

$LUNC extended its correction a bit, but I think it's on the verge of recovering. If it closes above 10,000 at the end of the day, this will be perceived as positive because even though the correction size is long, it indicates that buyers are coming in and signals a recovery. We are watching.

I wrote this morning that the first signs of weakness were appearing in $LUNC , it experienced some selling pressure, but it was the kind of selling we wanted, because coins that rise relentlessly also fall relentlessly. Selling pressure up to the support level between 10000 and 9693 should be considered normal; as long as it stays above that, there's no problem.

My $BTC short positions are still open. I added one more short at the 82,000 level to increase my cost basis. Now I'm watching from the sidelines until I reach my initial expectation of the 65,000 level, and then maybe 57,039?

$LUNC 's move has layers; reading it as a "burn rally" misses the picture. Price bottomed near 0.00004 on April 24 and pushed above 0.00009 by early May — roughly doubling, the cleanest momentum move in two years. "~200%" overstates the number but captures the feel; this is a squeeze, not a grind.

Three layers run at once. Supply: Binance's May 1 burn of 923M LUNC was the biggest in months, yet the market front-ran it and didn't sell the event. The 0.5% tax burns 100–300M daily; cumulative ~6–7% of supply. Marginal in a multi-trillion float, but in LUNC narrative moves faster than math.

Technical regime change: LUNC didn't print a new low in February, then broke 0.000045 — the cap on every rally since 2022 — and retested it as support. Character flipped from "sell every pump" to "bid every dip." RSI above 80 is stretched, but the first overbought print after a structural break usually marks consolidation, not exhaustion.

Coin-specific alpha: with BTC flat, LUNC is idiosyncratic, not altcoin beta. Cosmos SDK v0.53, IBC and the May 6 v4.0.1 vote turn "dead chain" into "live project." Open interest jumped from 5.7M to 37M+ — spot and derivatives deepened together.

The only level that matters is 0.0001. Daily closes above, with a retest of 0.00008–0.00009 as support, give "delete a zero" real ground. Failure makes a 30–40% pullback toward 0.00006 normal — doesn't end the trend, just shakes everyone in front of it.

Zero deletion itself means 0.0001 to 0.001 — roughly 10x from here. Burns alone won't do it; you'd need real supply shrinkage, $USTC re-peg getting concrete, and Cosmos usage. Pricing the narrative and completing it are different things; LUNC has rallied on the first many times without the second.

Watch close quality at 0.0001 and whether volume holds. Fading volume while price stalls is textbook distribution; sustained volume means a new band is tested. Sturdy doesn't mean it won't drop — only that pullbacks find buyers easier.

While not certain this time, signals for a sixth upward wave have started to appear in $LUNC since April 24th. Let's see if this pattern will work again. Some signs of weakness are starting to appear... A profit-taking would be good for a healthy upward trend, allowing it to target higher levels. I think the direction of the movement will become clearer during the US session.

Will $LUNC continue its upward movement after making the same move at the point I marked with an arrow for the 6th time? The algorithms are still working, and if it makes an upward move in this formation, it may also break the resistance level I set at 12900. Tomorrow will be an important day.

Note the similarity between the areas I've marked with a yellow arrow on $LUNC ; a new upward wave that could extend up to the 11,000 level may be coming.