#BTC / $BTC - blow off top warnings were given weeks and months ahead.
From the bull market bottom, I called every major bottom correctly. After 125–126K, I shared multiple blow-off top warnings. Remember who alerted you weeks and months in advance — when most didn’t expect it.
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The market is yet to fully price in the impact of the halt in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
What most people miss is how slow the oil tankers move — A typical oil tanker moves at the same speed as a bicycle. Now imagine how much time it would take for you to travel all the way from Dubai to a port in the U.S. at this speed (it’s around 50 days!).
It has only been 38 days since the start of the Iran war. Which means that the oil we are getting now had already crossed the Strait when the war started. Based on JP Morgan estimates, these oil flows will stop by April 15th in the U.S. and by April 10th in Europe.
In our view, the outcome will mirror what we saw during Covid: as long as the issue remained contained abroad, the equities barely blinked, and as soon as the shock reached the U.S., a sharp correction followed.
Nothing changes sentiment like seeing your Gas and grocery prices shoot up.
The percentage of industries in bear markets has reached a key level.
Historically, similar signals have often appeared near periods of stress, but also around points where declines were becoming more mature.
On its own, it doesn’t distinguish between a market rolling over or one nearing a turning point, which is why confirmation from price and other indicators matters