Cointelegraph

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin orderbook depth has plummeted by 50% since September 2025, signaling a substantial decline in overall market liquidity.

Indicators suggest that the current market fragility stems more from recent 2026 trends than from the 2025 flash crash itself.

Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto markets took a massive hit on Oct. 10, 2025, precisely 6 months ago. That devastating flash crash wiped out a record-breaking $19 billion in leveraged positions while some altcoins collapsed 40% to 80%. Many traders speculated that multiple market makers had been wiped out, while others accused the Binance exchange of blatant manipulation.

Was the crypto market structure actually altered after the October 2025 crash, and what has changed in liquidity, derivatives markets, and institutional metrics?

Aggregate Bitcoin spot +1% to -1% orderbook depth, USD. Source: CoinAnk

Bitcoin’s aggregate orderbook depth, ranging from +1% to -1%, typically oscillated between $180 million and $260 million in September 2025. On most days, there would be a healthy $90 million in bids, but that was not the case on Oct. 10, 2025. A mix of technical issues at Binance and auto-deleveraging on decentralized exchanges caused a temporary liquidity lapse.

During the flash crash, Bitcoin’s orderbook depth entered a downward spiral, stabilizing near $150 million by mid-November 2025. Currently, Bitcoin’s order book depth seldom exceeds $130 million, down 50% from levels seen in September 2025.

The already fragile market conditions deteriorated further in February 2026. Bitcoin’s orderbook depth plunged below $60 million for nearly 10 days as the price struggled to hold the $65,000 level. Cryptocurrency market volumes declined considerably, especially in the derivatives markets.

Total crypto trading volume, USD. Source: TokenInsight

Cryptocurrency derivatives volumes oscillated between $40 billion and $130 billion over the past 30 days, falling short of the $200 billion mark commonly seen in September 2025. Still, the reduced appetite for futures contracts is not necessarily a bearish indicator as longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers) are evenly matched at all times.

Demand for bullish leverage remains weak, ETF volumes lag

The Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate can be used to assess traders’ risk appetite.

Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas

Under normal conditions, the indicator should range between 6% to 12% to compensate for the cost of capital. Excessive demand for bearish leverage can push the indicator below 0%, meaning shorts are the ones paying to keep their positions open. Data indicate stable conditions throughout November 2025, followed by a sharp decline in February 2026.

Curiously, volumes of US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were not impacted by the Oct. 10, 2025 flash crash. In fact, by late November, activity in those instruments jumped to their highest levels in 20 months at $11.5 billion per day. 

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily trading volume, USD. Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin ETFs regularly traded at volumes above $4 billion per day between January and March 2026, but eventually fell below $3.3 billion by the first week of April. Similarly, US-listed Ether (ETH) ETFs average daily volume dropped to $1 billion, down from $2 billion in September 2025. 

Orderbook depth, funding rate, derivatives and ETF volumes all point to a much less healthy cryptocurrency market in April 2026 relative to 6 months prior. However, given that the market structure held relatively firm through February 2026, the relevance of the Oct. 10, 2025 flash crash seems much less than previously imagined.

Bitcoin (BTC) is due a classic “short squeeze” as open interest hits five-week highs, says new analysis.

Key points:

Bitcoin is seeing a combination of rising open interest and negative funding rates.

The result could punish short positions, with funding rates at the most negative since early February.

Large-scale Bitcoin speculators are net long BTC again.

Bitcoin short squeeze likelihood “increasing”

In one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on Saturday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin was “crowded” with short positions. 

“BTC is flowing out of exchanges while funding rates remain strongly negative, creating an increasingly crowded short positioning environment where the potential for a short squeeze is building,” contributor CoinNiel summarized.

After BTC/USD passed $73,000 on Friday, traders appeared eager to trap those entering the market who were betting on continued price upside. Funding rates stayed negative on exchanges, while open interest grew to $24.2 billion — its highest since early March.

“Since March, negative funding has become more frequent, and throughout April it has remained in negative territory without flipping positive,” the post continued. 

“This indicates that short positions dominate the market, with shorts paying longs, and such extreme positioning can act as a trigger for a reversal through forced liquidations.”

Bitcoin funding rates. Source: CryptoQuant

CoinNiel said that the combination of rising open interest and negative funding rates “suggests that leveraged short positions have been rapidly accumulating.” 

“The slight decrease does not yet indicate a meaningful deleveraging phase,” he acknowledged.

Bitcoin open interest. Source: CryptoQuant

Fellow contributor Gaah agreed, noting that funding rates had hit their deepest negative value since Bitcoin’s dip to multiyear lows at the start of February.

“Caution is needed when establishing positions in current range, since it represents an area of buying demand,” he wrote in a further Quicktake post. 

“Bears trapped? Likelihood of a short squeeze is increasing.”

Trader: Bitcoin speculators copying 2023 rebound

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on short liquidations staying modest despite the BTC price upside. 

Data from CoinGlass showed that over the 24 hours to the time of writing, cross-crypto liquidations totaled less than $100 million.

Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Sentiment among market participants, meanwhile, has gradually begun to favor fresh upside, with targets including $80,000 and higher.

On Saturday, crypto trader Michaël Van de Poppe eyed increasing belief in a BTC price rebound among large-volume speculators.

“Speculators are net long on Bitcoin. Very similar to previous cases where we've seen the same before a big breakout in 2023,” he wrote in a post on X.

Bitcoin investor positioning. Source: Michaël Van de Poppe/X

Pavel Durov, the co-founder of the Telegram messaging application, said that push notifications create a persistent, critical vulnerability to user privacy, allowing data retrieval even after messages and messaging applications that allow push notification data storage have been deleted from a device.

Durov cited a recent report, originally published by 404 Media, that the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) was able to retrieve deleted messages from a Signal user by accessing device notification logs on an Apple iPhone. Durov said on Friday:

“Turning off notification previews won’t make you safe if you use those applications, because you never know whether the people you message have done the same.” 

Source: Pavel Durov

Cointelegraph reached out to Signal about the FBI’s data retrieval but did not receive a response by the time of publication. 

The recent reports highlight how investigators and those with sufficient technical skills can circumvent end-to-end encryption and breach user privacy by accessing metadata and other information generated by applications, prompting a need for decentralized messaging applications that do not collect such data. 

Alternative messaging application use surges amid spikes in civil unrest and geopolitical turmoil

Decentralized messaging applications and social media platforms experienced a surge in user interest since 2025, amid geopolitical tensions, nationwide communication blackouts and civil unrest.

Online search interest in decentralized social media platforms has spiked by 145% over the last five years. Source: Exploding Topics

Bitchat, a decentralized peer-to-peer messaging application that uses Bluetooth mesh networks to relay information between mobile devices, allows users to circumvent the internet and centralized communication networks entirely.

More than 48,000 users in Nepal downloaded the Bitchat application amid a nationwide social media ban in September 2025.

Individuals are also finding ways to circumvent national firewalls and bans on privacy-preserving applications by using virtual private networks (VPNs) and other tools that mask or obscure IP addresses and geolocation, according to Durov.

Government bans on Telegram have backfired, as users circumvent state-imposed restrictions through VPNs, allowing them to access and download banned platforms, Durov said.

“The government hoped for mass adoption of its surveillance messaging apps, but got mass adoption of VPNs instead,” he continued, adding that over 50 million users in Iran have downloaded the Telegram application, despite a years-long government ban.

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In March, the US jobs market recorded 178,000 new jobs, marking little change from the month before, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

The anemic growth in job listings comes amid volatile policy swings from the White House, increased energy prices due to the US and Israel’s war with Iran and, according to recent research, AI disruptions to the labor market. 

Proponents of AI and large language models have claimed that the tech will bring about an economic boom, thanks to the promise of efficiency breakthroughs. 

But as AI becomes more integrated into daily business operations, there is a widening gulf between that promise of growth and efficiency, and what is actually happening. 

AI dampens employment growth

On March 6, venture capitalist and Netscape co-founder Marc Andreessen said on X that fears about AI job displacement were overblown. 

Source: Marc Andreessen

He also posted an article from Business Insider stating that, at least in tech, job openings are on the rise. Citing data from TrueUp, a tech jobs tracker, Business Insider said that job openings at tech companies have doubled to 67,000 since 2023.  

But openings don’t necessarily translate to hiring. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, most employment growth in March did not happen in the tech industry. Of the 178,000 new jobs added in March, healthcare employed 76,000, construction grew by 26,000, transportation and warehousing added 21,000 and employment in social assistance increased by 14,000.  

While the report doesn’t have a single section tracking the tech industry, related services like computing infrastructure providers and web search portals saw a 1,500 job decrease, or almost no change, respectively. Computer systems design and related services lost 13,000 jobs.

AI has actually axed 16,000 jobs per month over the past year, according to a recent report from Goldman Sachs, as cited by Fortune. In particular, AI has led to a collapse in hiring for entry-level roles. A 2025 study from SignalFire found that new grad hiring had dropped 50% compared to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. 

Source: SignalFire

“The door to tech once swung wide open for new grads. Today, it’s barely cracked. The industry's obsession with hiring bright-eyed grads right out of college is colliding with new realities: smaller funding rounds, shrinking teams, fewer new grad programs, and the rise of AI,” the SignalFire study stated. 

This disruption could create ripples far into the future. According to Goldman Sachs, “AI-driven displacement could impose lasting costs on affected workers, worsening labor market outcomes for several years.”

“A key mechanism behind these worse outcomes is occupational downgrading. Workers displaced by technology are more likely to move into more routine occupations requiring fewer analytical and interpersonal skills, likely because the same technological shifts that eliminated their positions also eroded the value of their existing skills,” they continued. 

These job losses are justified by the theory that AI will, at the very least, make workplaces more productive. But even that isn’t a given.

Reality of AI use clashes with C-suite expectations

Executives are still overwhelmingly supportive of AI. According to Harvard Business Review, 80% of leaders report weekly use of AI, with 74% reporting positive returns on early deployments. 

But workers don’t feel the same. A study from HR consulting firm Mercer found that, for 43% of workers, their job is more frustrating. 

One major issue is the number of mistakes churned out by generative AI. “For every 10 hours of efficiency gained through AI, nearly four hours are lost to fixing its output,” a Workday report stated. 

AI can also be used to offload labor onto coworkers in what researchers at the Harvard Business Review have called “workslop” i.e., “content that appears polished but lacks real substance, offloading cognitive labor onto coworkers.”

They said that “41% of workers have encountered such AI-generated output, costing nearly two hours of rework per instance and creating downstream productivity, trust, and collaboration issues.”

According to Workday, only 14% of respondents to their survey said they “consistently achieve net-positive outcomes from AI use.”

Part of the gulf between executives' understanding of AI and the reality at the productive level may be explained by the technology itself. 

Per the Harvard Business Review, “Senior leaders tend to use AI for high-level synthesis, strategic drafting, and decision support, tasks where the technology performs well, so the current capabilities tend to benefit their work.”

For messier day-to-day operations like “workflows built over years, teams with uneven technical comfort, output that has to be consistently right, not just fast,” it doesn’t work so well. 

“When the tool works, both groups understand and reap the benefits. When it fails, typically only one of them has to cope with the aftermath.”

Many still don’t think that AI can handle complex tasks. Source: MIT

Brian Solis, the head of global innovation at enterprise AI firm ServiceNow, said that this divide has created an “AI tax,” i.e., “More checking. More rework. More anxiety. Faster pace. AI slop. Less trust.” 

Andreessen may not believe that the AI job-cut narratives are real, but OpenAI does. The AI company has acknowledged the impact the technology has on employment, and has even released a series of policy proposals to address it.

The list contains ideas that are “intentionally early and exploratory” that serve as a “a starting point for discussion that we invite others to build on.” It includes proposals to expand healthcare coverage, retirement savings and setting a new industrial policy agenda. 

Far from Andreessen’s optimism, OpenAI’s proposal included a warning: “Unless policy keeps pace with technological change, the institutions and safety nets needed to navigate this transition could fall behind.”

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Shipping firms that turn to cryptocurrency to pay potential transit fees to Iran could face significant sanctions exposure, according to Kaitlin Martin, senior intelligence analyst at Chainalysis.

Martin told Cointelegraph that under the current sanctions framework, any payments made to the Iranian regime, including those tied to passage through key waterways, could be interpreted as “material support,” putting companies at risk of violating US and international restrictions.

“Doing so could carry significant sanctions violation risk, as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is sanctioned by multiple jurisdictions and Iran is subject to comprehensive sanctions by the United States,” she said.

The warning comes amid reports that Iran may seek to collect transit fees in cryptocurrency. While there has been no official confirmation, US President Donald Trump has said he would not accept any attempt by Tehran to impose tolls on shipping through the vital waterway.

Iran expands crypto use

Tehran has already expanded its use of digital assets, particularly stablecoins, to facilitate trade in oil, weapons and commodities, based on publicly available data, Martin said.

However, she noted that cryptocurrency is not a foolproof workaround for sanctions. While it enables cross-border transfers outside the conventional financial system, blockchain transactions are inherently transparent and leave a permanent record.

Source: Arkham

“In many ways, cryptocurrency is actually easier to trace than traditional methods of sanctions evasion,” she said, pointing to the ability of investigators to follow funds to cash-out points where assets can be frozen or seized.

Other sanctioned states have also explored similar approaches. Russia, for instance, has used digital tokens such as A7A5 to facilitate cross-border trade following sanctions imposed after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Iran’s Bitcoin hashrate drops sharply

As Cointelegraph reported, Iran’s Bitcoin (BTC) mining power has dropped significantly over the past quarter, losing around 7 exahashes per second and falling to roughly 2 EH/s, amid escalating tensions with the United States and Israel.

Despite the regional disruption, the global Bitcoin network remains stable, with total hashrate holding near 1,000 EH/s. Notably, the impact has been contained within Iran, with neighboring countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Oman unaffected.

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WLFI, the native token of the Donald Trump–backed World Liberty Financial platform, sank to an all-time low on Saturday as crypto users expressed concerns after revelations that the project used a large amount of its own tokens to take out loans.

The token hit a new low of around $0.07714 on Saturday, down 83% from its peak of $0.46 reached last September, according to data from CoinMarketCap. WLFI is currently at $0.07879, down by 4.66% over the past day.

The downturn came after it was revealed that wallets linked to World Liberty Financial deployed substantial WLFI holdings as collateral on Dolomite, a decentralized lending platform co-founded by the project’s chief technology officer, Corey Caplan.

WLFI token down 65% over the past year. Source: CoinMarketCap

Onchain data from Arkham shows that a wallet linked to World Liberty Financial deposited around 5 billion WLFI tokens on Dolomite. The wallet then used the tokens as collateral to borrow $75 million in USD1 and USDC (USDC) stablecoins, later transferring more than $40 million to Coinbase Prime.

WLFI-backed loan position sparks concerns

The large collateral position has raised concerns among DeFi analysts, who warn it could create risks for lenders on Dolomite if WLFI’s price falls and approaches liquidation levels.

“WLFI has almost a $10 billion FDV, but it is not an extremely liquid asset,” one user wrote on X. “So imagine what would happen if 5% of WLFI's total supply would suddenly need to be sold to liquidate the position,” he added.

Another X user argued that the setup resembles creating artificial “chips” and borrowing against them. “It’s the financial equivalent of printing casino chips, borrowing cash against them, and telling everyone else not to panic because the house still believes in the chips,” they claimed.

Source: Ethan DeFi

Dolomite has a relatively small footprint in decentralized finance, ranking 19th among lending platforms by total value locked, according to DefiLlama.

World Liberty defends WLFI lending

World Liberty Financial acknowledged the lending activity on social media, but sought to calm markets, stating that its positions remain well above liquidation thresholds. The project described itself as an “anchor borrower” for WLFI and argued that the strategy helps generate yield.

“Everyday users are earning outsized stablecoin yields right now — at a time when traditional markets are offering very little. That's the whole point,” the project wrote on X.

On Friday, World Liberty said it will soon introduce a governance proposal to create a phased unlock schedule for WLFI tokens held by early retail buyers, replacing immediate access with a long-term vesting plan subject to community vote.

Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author

A federal judge in Arizona has temporarily barred state officials from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, siding with US regulators in a growing dispute over how event-based trading products should be classified.

In an order issued on Friday, Judge Michael Liburdi of the US District Court for the District of Arizona granted a request from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the federal government to halt any state-level action targeting contracts listed on CFTC-regulated markets .

The ruling centers on whether Kalshi’s “event contracts” fall under federal derivatives law or state gambling statutes. Last month, Arizona authorities sought to pursue enforcement against Kalshi under local gambling rules, but the CFTC asked a court order on Wednesday to stop the action.

The court said that the CFTC is likely to succeed in arguing that such contracts qualify as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act, placing them within federal jurisdiction. The law grants the agency exclusive authority over swaps traded on designated contract markets.

Court halts Arizona enforcement against Kalshi

As part of the decision, Arizona officials are temporarily prohibited from initiating or continuing civil or criminal enforcement tied to Kalshi’s event contracts on regulated exchanges .

The restraining order will remain in effect until April 24, while the court considers whether to issue a longer-term preliminary injunction.

Kalshi notional volume. Source: Kalshidata

The case adds to a broader debate over prediction markets in the United States, particularly as regulators and states clash over whether such products resemble financial instruments or online betting. Last month, Utah lawmakers also passed a bill targeting Kalshi and Polymarket that classifies proposition-style bets on in-game events as gambling, aiming to block such offerings in the state.

Nevada judge extends ban on Kalshi

Last week, a Nevada judge extended a ban preventing Kalshi from offering event-based contracts in the state, siding with regulators who argue the products amount to unlicensed gambling.

The court found that the platform’s offerings closely resemble traditional sports betting. The judge said there is no meaningful distinction between placing a wager through a sportsbook and buying a contract tied to an event outcome, concluding that such activity falls under Nevada’s gaming laws.

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Bitwise Asset Management has reportedly taken a key step toward launching its proposed spot Hyperliquid exchange-traded fund, filing a second amendment with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

In an X post on Friday, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that Bitwise had updated its Hyperliquid ETF to include the ticker $BHYP and had also set a management fee of 0.67% (67 basis points).

According to Balchunas, the filing of these details generally indicates that the product will "launch soon."

"HYPE is up 200% in the past year," he said, adding that the firm was likely "trying to strike" while the iron was "hot."

The filing comes amid competition from other asset managers vying to launch the first spot ETF tied to the crypto perpetual futures protocol and blockchain, with Grayscale and 21Shares also pushing for similar products of their own.

Bitwise was the first of the three to submit a Hyperliquid ETF filing with the SEC in September. 21Shares followed a month later with its own, while Grayscale submitted its filing in late March.

Source: Eric Balchunas 

If approved, Bitwise's ETF will trade on the NYSE Arca stock exchange and offer investors exposure to the spot price of Hyperliquid.

In the firm's first filing amendment from December, Bitwise also indicated that the fund would seek to generate additional returns from HYPE staking — something Grayscale and 21Shares haven't explicitly indicated their funds would do.

Hyperliquid continues to gain traction

According to data from CoinGecko, the price of HYPE is up 65% since the start of 2026 to around $41.96 at the time of writing, despite a tough start to the year for the broader crypto market. Over 12 months, the price of HYPE is also up about 182%.

Alongside a strong token performance, blockchain analytics platform CoinGlass reported in early April that Hyperliquid had broken into the top 10 crypto derivatives platforms by volume, joining the likes of Binance, OKX and Bybit.

During Q1, Hyperliquid generated $492.7 billion in trading volume, putting it shy of ninth-placed Coinbase by about $90 billion.

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XRP (XRP) has been in an eight-month downtrend, with momentum and onchain indicators at levels that previously coincided with macro bottoms.

Data from TradingView reveals that the relative strength index (RSI) of the XRP/BTC ratio is at 24, the most oversold level since October 2025. 

Such low levels in the daily RSI have marked market bottoms for the ratio, ultimately leading to 65% to 345% XRP price breakouts against Bitcoin as seen late 2024 and 2025.

XRP/BTC daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The chart above also shows that the XRP/BTC pair is trading within a long consolidation range, which has previously acted as a strong launching pad for the ratio.

The last time XRP bottomed against Bitcoin around this zone was in June 2025. It marked the beginning of a 61% increase in the XRP/BTC ratio, accompanying a 92% XRP price rally to a multi-year high of $3.66.

Other instances shown by the yellow bars in the chart reinforce the reliability of this level in marking macro bottoms for XRP/BTC. 

MVRV Z-Score suggests XRP price is bottoming

XRP’s MVRV Z-score is hovering near zero, a level that historically aligns with accumulation zones and market bottoms.

This indicates that most holders are close to breakeven, reducing sell pressure and signalling potential downside exhaustion. Similar patterns appeared in 2021, 2022 and 2024 before major rallies.

XRP MVRV Z-score vs. price. Source: Glassnode

Note that the last time XRP’s MVRV Z-score fell to similar levels in late 2024 coincided with a macro market bottom at $0.30 and preceded a multi-month rally, with the XRP/USD pair rising 500% to a multi-year high above $3. 

Meanwhile, the 0.80 MVRV pricing band, which has historically marked cycle bottoms, is currently at $1.14, coinciding with a 15-month low reached on Feb. 6.

XRP: MVRV pricing bands. Source: Glassnode

These onchain metrics suggest that XRP is undervalued and may continue the ongoing recovery, potentially rising toward $1.70 or higher. 

XRP price must hold above $1.30 

Meanwhile, XRP/USD remains cautiously bullish as long as it holds the $1.25-$1.30 support zone. 

“$XRP is sustaining the major support zone between $1.30-$1.25 levels since early Feb'26,” trader ChiefraT said in an X post on Friday, adding:

“If this zone continues to hold, then a short-term bounce towards $1.45 can't be ruled out.”

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The importance of this support level is reinforced by cost basis distribution. The heatmap below shows that nearly 1.73 billion XRP were acquired around this price.

XRP cost-basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode

Below that, the next line of defence is the $1.15 demand zone, where the 200-week simple moving average is. 

If XRP/USD drops below this level, it would be in a free-fall toward the measured target of the bear flag at $0.80, or 41% below the current price.

As Cointelegraph reported, holding $1.27-$1.30 would be a sign of strength among the bulls who must push the XRP/USD pair toward the $1.61 range high to regain control. 

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has unveiled the first members of its new innovation task force as the agency continues its push to provide greater clarity for the crypto market.

The Innovation Task Force was initially launched by CFTC Chairman Mike Selig on March 24, who appointed Michael Passalacqua as the leader of the group. Passalacqua is currently the senior advisor to Selig at the CFTC.

In an announcement Friday, the CFTC said that Passalacqua will be joined by a list of five initial members including Hank Balaban, a former Latham & Watkins crypto lawyer; Sam Canavos, an ex-Patomak crypto and prediction markets advisor; Mark Fajfar, a CFTC legal veteran; Eugene Gonzalez IV, an ex-Sidley blockchain lawyer; and Dina Moussa, a CFTC Market Participants Division special counsel.

"The Innovation Task Force brings together a leading team that exhibits deep expertise and an enthusiastic commitment to deliver clear rules of the road for American innovators," Selig said.

The move is part of a broader push from both the CFTC and Securities and Exchange Commission to provide regulatory clarity for the digital asset sector under the direction of the Donald Trump administration.

Edit the caption here or remove the text

Source: Michael Passalacqua

CFTC pushing for clarity as major bill stalls

On Friday, Selig also announced the CFTC's "innovation tracker," which highlights all the work done under Selig to help "advance regulatory clarity, market integrity, and responsible technological progress."

The website lists three key innovation areas the agency is focused on, including crypto and blockchain, artificial intelligence and autonomous systems, and contracts and prediction markets.

The CFTC in particular could be set to be the main overseer of the industry, with the SEC proposing in mid-March that the agency doesn't see most crypto assets falling under its jurisdiction as securities.

However, the certainty of both agencies' roles is still largely dependent on whether the Clarity Act passes through the upper levels of government and becomes enshrined as law — something SEC Chair Paul Atkins called for via X on Thursday.

The SEC and CFTC are "ready to implement the CLARITY Act," he said, adding: "It's time for Congress to future-proof against rogue regulators and advance comprehensive market structure legislation to President Trump's desk."

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The Bitcoin (BTC) community is discussing the feasibility and implications of the Iranian government accepting BTC for tolls paid by oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane through which about 20% of the global oil supply passes. 

The reactions were sparked by a Financial Times report, published on Wednesday, which said that the Iranian government was considering BTC payments for oil tolls to avoid sanctions imposed by the United States.

Several conflicting reports have been published since the Financial Times article, which suggest that the tolls are payable in stablecoins or Chinese yuan, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at crypto investment firm Galaxy. 

A map of the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Encyclopedia Britannica

BTC advocate Justin Bechler said that stablecoins can be frozen by the issuer and cited the compliance controls introduced in the GENIUS stablecoin regulatory framework as reasons why the Iranian government would not collect tolls in US-dollar stablecoins. He said:

“USDT and USDC include built-in blacklist functions at the smart contract level. When an address is flagged, the issuer can freeze the tokens, rendering them completely illiquid. The law's enforcement depends entirely on the compliance of issuers.

Bitcoin has no issuer, no compliance officer to pressure, and no freeze function. Iran's pivot toward Bitcoin follows directly from this structural reality,” he added. 

If the Iranian government begins accepting BTC for oil tanker payments, it would boost Bitcoin’s credibility as a neutral settlement layer for international transactions, advocates say.

Source: Jack Mallers

Iran would likely use QR codes to collect BTC payments

Thorn estimated that each oil tanker would need to pay between $200,000 and $2 million in tolls to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

The initial reporting from the Financial Times cited a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, who said that ships would have a “few seconds” to complete payment in BTC.

This suggests that ships would pay via the Lightning Network, a layer-2 payment solution for BTC that allows parties to send transactions in seconds, rather than waiting for the 10-minute block confirmation.

However, the largest known transaction over the Lightning network to date has been for $1 million, Thorn said. 

“More likely, the Iranian authorities would provide a QR code or alphanumeric Bitcoin address to the ships upon approval of their requests to pass through the Strait,” he added.

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Users on the prediction markets platform Kalshi are using the platform’s event contracts to bet on the aftermath of the Artemis II mission, NASA’s first manned spacecraft to the Moon in more than 50 years.

As of Friday, several event contracts related to a Moon landing were available on the Kalshi and Polymarket platforms, but many users were taking positions on what would be said at NASA’s news conference following the splashdown.

With just over $4,000 in volume on the event contracts, Kalshi users anticipate that NASA officials will mention the words “president” or “prime minister,” “radiation,” and “damage” in connection with the Moon mission.

Source: NASA

The Orion spacecraft from the Artemis II mission is expected to return to Earth at about 12:07 am UTC on Saturday, having launched from Florida on April 1 and completed a flyby of the Moon with a crew of four people. The NASA mission followed its Artemis I in 2022, which orbited the Moon with an unmanned vessel, and preceded its plans to land on the lunar surface in 2028.

Using positions in event contracts on prediction markets has drawn controversy because platforms like Polymarket allow users to bet on the outcomes of events related to the US-Israeli war against Iran. Some of the bets, which some lawmakers have described as suspicious due to their timing, have prompted calls for legislation to address potential insider trading on prediction markets.

Kalshi offered an event contract for a manned Moon landing by NASA, with a 63% chance before 2030 and a 41% chance before 2029.

Company plans to mine Bitcoin from Earth orbit

In March, an Nvidia-backed orbital data center company called Starcloud announced plans to mine Bitcoin (BTC) from space following the launch of a spacecraft into Earth orbit. Its CEO, Philip Johnston, said in an interview that the plans would utilize solar panels and application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) miners in its orbital data centers.

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CoreWeave, a publicly traded AI cloud infrastructure company, announced on Friday a “multi-year” agreement with AI developer Anthropic, which will use CoreWeave’s cloud computing data centers for its Claude AI model workloads.

The agreement will be rolled out in phases, with the “potential to expand over time,” according to CoreWeave’s announcement. 

Shares of CoreWeave surged more than 12% on Friday and are trading at $102.73 at the time of writing.  

CoreWeave’s stock price rose following the announcement. Source: Yahoo Finance

The agreement follows CoreWeave’s recent $8.5 billion capital raise, led by tech giant Meta Platforms.

The financing was collateralized against CoreWeave’s deployed computing capacity, which is tied to predictable cash flows, rather than its graphics processing unit hardware, marking a notable departure from traditional crypto mining financing structures.

CoreWeave pivoted away from crypto mining and rebranded as an AI infrastructure company in 2019, as the mining sector faced prolonged economic pressure following the 2018 crypto market downturn.

AI continues to draw miners away as economic headwinds hamper the crypto industry

Bitcoin (BTC) miners are struggling with rising energy costs, reduced rewards and declining crypto asset prices, leading many to repurpose their mining hardware for AI processing.

Up to 20% of Bitcoin miners are unprofitable in the current economic environment, according to asset manager CoinShares’ latest mining report.

Average cost to mine Bitcoin in US dollars for several major mining companies. Source: CoinShares

Crypto miners must generate yield on their assets by deploying their crypto on decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms to shore up declining revenues, according to market maker Wintermute.

The mining industry’s economic challenges worsened after the October 2025 market crash, which took BTC down from a high of about $126,000 to the low $60,000 range. Prices have since stabilized around $73,000.

The high costs of mining and shrinking profit margins threaten the viability of Bitcoin mining, with AI workloads becoming much more attractive in this environment, according to market analyst Ran Neuner.

“Both industries compete for the same thing: electricity, and right now, AI is willing to pay much more for it,” he said. 

Magazine: AI has dramatically accelerated the quantum threat to Bitcoin: AI Eye

Bitcoin is emerging as a potential component in the fragile ceasefire that is taking shape between the United States and Iran after a 39-day conflict disrupted the region and forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran is unlikely to relinquish its grip on the narrow trade artery that handles roughly 20% of global crude oil flows. Instead, it plans to manage transit alongside Oman, collecting tolls from vessels seeking safe passage.

And that’s where Bitcoin (BTC) comes into play. Those payments may not be limited to traditional currencies. Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, told the Financial Times that certain ships could be required to pay in BTC for safe passage of their oil cargo.

“Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given a few seconds to pay in Bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” said Hosseini.

If implemented, the move would mark a notable shift for Iran, which has previously said it would only accept the Chinese yuan as toll payment for the strait.

This week’s Crypto Biz looks at Iran’s reported crypto gambit, Jamie Dimon’s latest comments on blockchain and competition and the White House’s stance on stablecoin yields.

Iran seeks crypto tolls from ships crossing Strait of Hormuz

Ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly being asked to pay transit fees in cryptocurrency, as Iran tightens control over one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, according to the Financial Times.

Reports indicate that vessels, particularly oil tankers, are being charged fees that can reach into the millions per trip, with payments made in crypto or alternative currencies. The system is being enforced by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has restricted access to the waterway and allowed only approved ships to pass.

The development comes amid ongoing conflict and a fragile ceasefire, with Iran using its position over the strait as leverage. With roughly a fifth of global oil flows moving through the route, the use of crypto payments underscores both the geopolitical stakes and how digital assets are being used to bypass traditional financial channels.

Jamie Dimon warns blockchain and AI are coming for banking

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that a new wave of technology-driven competitors is putting pressure on traditional banking, highlighting both artificial intelligence and emerging financial infrastructure.

In his annual shareholder letter, Dimon pointed to fintech companies and nonbank players adopting blockchain and other technologies to build faster, lower-cost systems. He also hinted that stablecoins should be viewed as part of the broader shift underway in financial services.

America’s biggest bank, as measured by assets, is already investing heavily in its own blockchain infrastructure, including its Kinexys platform, as it looks to compete in areas such as payments and tokenization where new entrants are gaining ground on traditional players.

Stablecoins became a $315 billion market in the first quarter. Source: CEX.io

Bernstein says Figure stock could double on tokenization growth

Analysts at Bernstein say Figure Technologies’ rapid loan growth highlights the potential of blockchain-based lending, suggesting the company’s stock is significantly undervalued at current levels.

In a recent note, Bernstein said Figure surpassed $1 billion in monthly originations, signaling growing traction. It assigned the stock an “Outperform” rating and a $67 price target, roughly double current levels.

Figure’s lending platform runs on the Provenance blockchain, which is designed to reduce costs and speed up loan processing. Bernstein analysts said this structure could improve margins compared to traditional lenders, particularly as volumes increase.

Figure (FIGR) stock’s year-to-date performance. Source: Yahoo Finance

Stablecoin yield ban would lift bank lending just 0.02%, White House says

Economists at the White House said restricting yield-bearing stablecoins would have a negligible impact on bank lending, challenging claims that such products pose a meaningful threat to deposits.

According to analysis by the Council of Economic Advisers, a ban on stablecoin yields is estimated to increase bank lending by just 0.02%, suggesting only limited spillover into the traditional financial system. The analysis comes as yield-bearing stablecoins remain a key sticking point in market structure legislation talks.

The report also pointed to potential downsides. Limiting yields could reduce consumer benefits by cutting off access to higher returns, highlighting a trade-off for policymakers weighing tighter regulation of the sector. 

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Bitcoin (BTC) extended its bullish run into the Wall Street open on Friday, rallying above $73,000. Traders now eye a move back toward $80,000 by the end of April, as several indicators point to bulls retaking control of the crypto market.

Bitcoin breaks a bearish chart pattern

On Tuesday, Bitcoin invalidated what initially appeared to be a bear pennant on the daily chart.

The BTC/USD pair pierced through the pennant’s upper trend line at $70,000, jumping as much as 7% to a six-week high of $73,300 on Friday. Its breakout came alongside a rise in trading volume, implying stronger conviction behind the rally.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The price also reclaimed key support lines, including the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA, blue line), the 20-day EMA (red wave), and the 50-day EMA (orange wave) at $68,350, $69,520, and $70,580, respectively.

That simultaneously increased the odds of a symmetrical-triangle bullish reversal.

A symmetrical triangle forms when price makes lower highs and higher lows, compressing into a tightening range. It resolves when the price breaks either of the trendlines and moves by as much as the pattern’s maximum height.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In Bitcoin’s case, the measured move above the upper trend line points to $87,000, about 20% above the current price. 

The bullish divergence from the relative strength index (RSI) suggests that the bullish momentum has been steadily building up over the last two months, reinforcing BTC’s upside potential.

Bitcoin’s next hurdle is the 100-day EMA (blue) near $75,400. 

As Cointelegraph reported, a rejection there would weaken the breakout and raise the odds of a pullback.

Onchain data caps Bitcoin’s upside at $80,000

Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin has spent more than six weeks consolidating within a $60,000–$70,000 range, with multiple failed attempts to sustain a strong footing above $72,000. 

Glassnode’s risk indicator reveals a major resistance between the true market mean at $78,000 and the short-term holder cost basis level around $80,000.

“This is a particularly meaningful threshold,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:

“Any rally into this zone is likely to encounter meaningful distribution pressure from recent buyers seeking to exit at or near breakeven.”

Bitcoin risk indicator.  Source: Glassnode

The chart above reinforces the view that any recovery attempt could be halted near the true market mean and the STH realized price, as seen in 2023. 

Glassnode’s Entity-Adjusted UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which shows at which prices the current set of BTC UTXOs was created, also revealed that BTC price has entered a relatively open zone between $72,000 and $82,000, where there’s less resistance.

This means BTC may move more freely in the short term within this range, if the momentum holds, with the upside possibly capped at $82,000-$85,000. This is where investors acquired more than 1.3 million BTC.

BTC: Entity-Adjusted URPD. Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, BTC’s cost-basis distribution heatmap shows a pronounced accumulation between $78,000 and $84,000, suggesting a potential short-term pathway toward this level.

Polymarket odds for $80,000 BTC in April rise

Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market where users trade contracts on real-world outcomes, is showing a clear bullish shift for Bitcoin in April.

Traders now assign 26% chances that BTC/USD reaches $80,000 in April, a 5% increase over the last 24 hours. The $75,000 target carries even stronger convictions at 76%.

BTC price targets for April. Source: Polymarket

At the same time, the odds of the BTC price reaching $65,000 in April are priced lower than before, suggesting the crowd is trimming its downside expectations.

Brian Armstrong, the Coinbase CEO who withdrew the crypto exchange’s support for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in January, said “it’s time” for the legislation to pass after months of delays.

In a Thursday X post, Armstrong said that Coinbase agreed with comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, in which he urged Congress to act on the crypto bill soon. According to the CEO, the current version of the legislation, after months of negotiations between lawmakers and representatives from the crypto and banking industries, was a “strong bill.”

“It's time to pass the Clarity Act,” said Armstrong.

Source: Brian Armstrong

Armstrong’s endorsement of the bill came about three months after the CEO said that the company could not support the legislation “as written,” leading to lawmakers in the Senate Banking Committee postponing a markup on CLARITY necessary for its approval.

At the time, Armstrong said that he expected the bill to pass “in a few weeks,” but concerns over ethics, tokenized equities, stablecoin yield and other crypto-related issues have stalled progress since January.

The expected markup for the bill in the banking committee, not scheduled as of Friday, will follow approval from the Senate Agriculture Committee in January. Both committees need to address different aspects of securities and commodities regulations before a potential vote for the CLARITY Act in the full chamber.

Coinbase legal chief Paul Grewal said last week that lawmakers were “very close to a deal” on the bill.

Is the crypto industry’s influence growing in Washington?

Since before the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, many experts have questioned the influence of the crypto industry on elections, lawmakers’ decisions and White House policies.

Executives at Coinbase and Ripple Labs have been parties to the discussions with administration officials on the CLARITY Act, and Armstrong reportedly met with the president before Trump posted a social media message calling for immediate action on crypto market structure.

The relationships may have benefited Coinbase and other companies seeking crypto-friendly laws and regulations under Trump. Last week, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency approved Coinbase’s application for a national bank trust charter, following December approvals for Paxos, Ripple Labs, BitGo, Circle and Fidelity Digital Assets.

Magazine: Should users be allowed to bet on war and death in prediction markets?

Key points:

Buyers are attempting to push Bitcoin toward the $76,000 level but are facing significant selling from the bears.

Several major altcoins are likely to pick up momentum if they break above their overhead resistance levels.

Buyers are attempting to sustain Bitcoin (BTC) above the $72,500 level but are expected to face significant resistance from the bears. US spot BTC exchange-traded funds have witnessed a mixed week, with two days of inflows and two days of outflows, according to Farside Investors data. However, a positive sign is that the inflows have been larger than the outflows, resulting in weekly net inflows of $576.5 million.

Although there are signs of recovery, Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter that BTC will have to cross the True Market Mean at $78,000 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $81,600 to transition into a sustainable recovery regime. Until then, the “mid to long-term bias remains tilted to the downside” as any rally into the zone is expected to encounter selling pressure from recent buyers who may want to exit their positions at or near breakeven.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView

Along with BTC, Ether (ETH) may also be bottoming out. The Capriole Macro Index Oscillator recorded a reading of -2.42, signaling undervaluation. In 2022, ETH had bottomed out in the $1,000 to $1,200 range when the indicator fell to -2.2. That suggests limited downside risk and greater upside potential.

Could BTC and select major altcoins continue their relief rally? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price prediction

BTC rose above $73,000, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. That suggests the bears are attempting to retain the price below the $72,000 level.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A positive in favor of the bulls is that the 20-day exponential moving average ($69,587) has started to turn up, and the relative strength index (RSI) has risen into the positive territory. That increases the possibility of a rally to the $76,000 resistance. 

Sellers are expected to defend the $76,000 level with all their might, as a close above it completes a bullish ascending triangle pattern. The BTC/USDT pair may then ascend to $84,000.

The bears will have to swiftly pull the BTC price below the support line to signal a comeback. If they do that, the pair risks dropping to the crucial $62,500 to $60,000 support zone.

Ether price prediction

ETH’s pullback is finding support at $2,200, signaling that the bulls are attempting to flip the level into support.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the ETH price turns up from the current level and breaks above $2,274, it improves the prospects of a rally above the $2,400 resistance. If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair may surge to $2,800.

This bullish view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages. That suggests the higher levels are attracting sellers. The pair may then slump to the solid support at $1,916. 

XRP price prediction

Buyers have failed to push XRP (XRP) above the 50-day simple moving average ($1.38), indicating that the bears are aggressively defending the level.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Both moving averages are flattening out, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a slight edge to the bears. A break and close below the $1.27 level signals the resumption of the downtrend to $1.11 and later to the support line of the descending channel pattern near $0.9.

On the other hand, a break above the 50-day SMA tilts the short-term advantage in favor of the buyers. The XRP/USDT pair may then rally to the downtrend line, where the bears are expected to pose a strong challenge.

BNB price prediction

BNB (BNB) has failed to rise above the 50-day SMA ($626), indicating that the bears are selling on minor rallies.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Sellers will attempt to strengthen their position by pulling the BNB price below the $570 level. If they succeed, the BNB/USDT pair may resume its downtrend to the next strong support at $500.

Conversely, a close above the moving averages signals that the pair may extend its stay within the range for some time. Buyers will be back in the driver’s seat on a close above the $687 level. That clears the path for a rally to $730 and subsequently to $790.

Solana price prediction

Solana (SOL) has been consolidating inside the $76 to $98 range, signaling buying on dips and selling on rallies.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If buyers drive the SOL price above the moving averages, the recovery may reach the $98 level. Sellers are expected to fiercely defend the $98 level, attempting to keep the SOL/USDT pair inside the range.

The next trending move is expected to begin above the $98 resistance or below the $76 support. If bulls propel the price above the $98 level, the pair may surge to $117. Alternatively, a break below the $76 level may sink the pair to $67.

Dogecoin price prediction

Dogecoin (DOGE) failed to rise above the downtrend line, indicating that the bears continue to exert pressure.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Sellers will have to quickly pull the DOGE price below the $0.09 support to complete the bearish descending triangle pattern. If they do that, the DOGE/USDT pair may plunge to $0.08 and later to the pattern target of $0.06.

Instead, if the price turns up and breaks above the downtrend line, it suggests that the bulls are aggressively defending the $0.09 level. The failure of a bearish setup is a positive sign as it is likely to attract buyers. The pair may then start its climb toward the $0.11 resistance.

Hyperliquid price prediction

Hyperliquid (HYPE) has been gradually moving higher toward the $41.59 to $43.76 resistance zone, signaling solid demand from the bulls.

HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($37.91) has started to turn up, and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that the bulls are in command. A close above the overhead resistance zone opens the gates for a rally to $50.

Sellers will have to swiftly yank the HYPE price below the 50-day SMA ($35.27) to signal a comeback. If they do that, the HYPE/USDT pair may plummet to the $29.42 level.

Cardano price prediction

Sellers are defending the 50-day SMA ($0.26) in Cardano (ADA), but the bulls have not allowed the price to dip back below the $0.25 support.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The first sign of strength will be a close above the 50-day SMA, as it opens the doors for a rally to the downtrend line. Sellers are expected to fiercely protect the downtrend line, as a close above it signals a potential short-term trend change.

On the contrary, a drop below the $0.23 level indicates that the bears have overpowered the bulls. That may sink the ADA/USDT pair to $0.22 and later to the support line near the $0.16 level.

Bitcoin Cash price prediction

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA ($451), but the bulls have not given up much ground to the bears.

BCH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

That increases the likelihood of a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the BCH/USDT pair may climb to the 50-day SMA ($465) and subsequently to the $486 resistance. A close above the $486 level suggests that the market has rejected the break below the $443 support.

Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to defend the moving averages and pull the BCH price below the $420 level. If they do that, the pair may plummet to $375.

Chainlink price prediction

Chainlink (LINK) has been stuck between the $8 and $10 level for several days, indicating a balance between supply and demand.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The longer the price remains within a range, the stronger the eventual breakout. The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint do not give either bulls or bears a clear advantage. 

If the LINK price turns up from its current level and breaks above the $10 resistance, it suggests the start of a new uptrend. The LINK/USDT pair may then reach $11.61. Conversely, a close below the $8 support may resume the downtrend toward the $6 level.

Mirroring a breakout setup from Q2 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is now eyeing a possible rally toward the $86,000–$90,000 range over the next few weeks.

The bullish view is supported by robust Bitcoin whale activity and large BTC inflows to exchanges, which have dropped by $5 billion over the past two months.

BTC support cluster at $70,000 builds breakout pressure

Bitcoin reached a weekly high of $73,255 on Friday after testing the $72,000 level earlier in the week, with the price compressing between $70,000 and $72,000 over the past four days. The higher price range is showing more stability for BTC than in March, when BTC quickly corrected after reaching the key level. 

BTC/USDT on the four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 30-day rolling volume-weighted average price (VWAP), which indicates where most recent trading activity has occurred, and the 50-day moving average have converged below the price, forming a dynamic support base.

Currently, the $76,000 level marks the upper boundary of a 64-day sideways phase. A push above this level aligns with the descending trendline formed after the October highs near $126,000.

A breakout from this trend may signal a major shift and remove the psychological barrier that capped rallies over the past few months. 

In Q2 2025, a similar setup formed after a prolonged compression below the moving averages. Once the price cleared the descending trendline, it expanded quickly into the next supply zone.

BTC/USDT on the one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The current structure mirrors that sequence, with liquidity stacked between $86,000 and $90,000. This indicates a clean path for price expansion once the bearish trendline gives way.

Related: Bitcoin can be made quantum-safe without protocol upgrade: Researcher

BTC whale flows signal supply absorption

Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted that the 30-day Bitcoin inflows to exchanges from whales dropped to $2.96 billion, the first sub-$3 billion reading since June 2025.

The lower inflows reduce immediate sell-side pressure on exchanges. For context, the whale inflows to exchanges were as high as $8 billion in February. 

BTC whale-to-exchange flow on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

At the same time, the long-term holder realized cap change reached $49 billion on April 9, marking renewed accumulation.

Taha noted a transfer of supply from weaker to stronger hands across these metrics. The divergence highlights steady absorption rather than aggressive selling.

BTC CVD indicator for whale orders. Source: CW/X

Additionally, whale-sized orders of $1 million to $10 million pushed the spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) above $600 million on April 9, while market analyst CW pointed to renewed buying from other whale cohorts as well.

This activity coincides with price stabilization above $70,000. The $76,000 level now acts as a trigger zone, with the $86,000 to $90,000 range holding a visible, concentrated liquidity zone. 

BTCUSDT liquidity map. Source: CoinGlass

Related: Bitcoin hits $73K as cool US CPI data shows 60-year record gas price hike

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, showing a 0.9% month-over-month rise in headline CPI inflation.

CPI inflation is up 3.3% year-over-year, according to the BLS report published Friday. Although inflation came in slightly lower than analyst expectations, inflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

A surge in energy prices from the Iran war drove March’s inflation figures, with the energy index rising by nearly 11%, led by a 21.2% rise in gasoline prices, the BLS report said.

12-month CPI percentage changes, broken down by category. Source: BLS

Managing inflation is part of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, which influences its decision-making on interest rates and broader monetary policy.

Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency prices are significantly impacted by interest rate policy, with lower interest rates stimulating asset prices by expanding credit that flows into financial markets and higher rates restricting capital flows and asset prices.

Traders see no chance of interest rate cuts at April Fed meeting

Investors forecast a 0% chance of an interest rate cut at the April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

The odds that the FOMC will keep rates on hold are 98.4%. Rate cut odds increase only incrementally throughout the year.

Interest rate target probabilities for the April FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

FOMC members are divided on further rate cuts in 2026, due to inflationary pressures from the ongoing war, and rate hikes have not been ruled out.

Bitcoin rises on latest CPI print

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose by over 1.5% on Friday, briefly tapping the $73,000 level following the latest CPI print. 

“The $73,000–$75,000 zone is our next major target,” said Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at crypto exchange-traded product provider 21shares.

“If BTC clears this, expect a brief period of sideways consolidation before a test of $80,000. Should the Clarity Act pass, the stage is set for $100,000 BTC and a $3 trillion–$3.2 trillion total crypto market cap by the end of Q2,” he added.

Magazine: Big Questions: Can Bitcoin save you from the dreaded Cantillon Effect?

Bittensor’s TAO token may drop by up to 45% in the coming weeks as Covenant AI, one of its top subnet operators, publicly announced its full exit from the ecosystem.

Key takeaways:

Covenant AI accused Bittensor of being centralized, leading to a 30% drop in TAO prices.

Fractals indicate that the token may drop another 25%–45% in the coming weeks.

TAO down 30% from weekly high

TAO’s price dropped by roughly 30% from its weekly high to around $249. A huge part of that downside came after Covenant AI accused Bittensor of running a “decentralized theater.”

TAO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

In a Friday post, the team behind the subnet argued that Bittensor may not be as decentralized as it looks. That went against Bittensor’s whole pitch, built around the idea of an open AI network where different subnets can compete fairly.

Once that claim hit the market, traders started to worry that the project’s main story was weakening. If builders begin to lose confidence and leave, traders may fear reduced activity on the network, weaker demand for TAO and slower long-term growth.

Source: X

The Friday selloff was accompanied by a roughly 250% rise in trading volume, indicating that most traders backed the downside outlook.

In the futures market, around $11.83 million in positions were liquidated, of which $9.71 million were long. That suggests many bullish traders were caught offside, adding forced selling pressure to TAO’s drop.

Bittensor liquidations data. Source: CoinGlass

TAO fractals hint at another 25%–45% selloff next

As Cointelegraph covered earlier, TAO was hinting at a 40% selloff after confirming a golden cross between its 20-day (green) and 200-day (blue) exponential moving averages (EMA).

TAO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

By Friday, the Bittensor token was moving toward that bearish setup’s projected target near $200, implying roughly 25% more downside from current levels.

Another fractal structure supports the downside case.

TAO is currently consolidating inside the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement range, a zone that has historically acted as a short-term consolidation area during TAO’s broader macro-top corrections.

TAO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

For instance, in November 2025, a breakdown from this same range triggered a drop of over 30% toward the 1.0 Fib level and lower, thus marking a full retracement of the prior rally.

A similar setup emerged in June 2025, when TAO broke below the same Fibonacci range but managed to stabilize near the 0.618 Fib level before rebounding.

TAO could first decline toward its 0.618 Fib support near $230 If ife pattern repeats.

Prevailing bearish fundamentals may push TAO lower toward the 1.0 Fib retracement near $144, down about 45% from current levels.