Institutions are here – yes. ETFs bought $1.05B last week. Strategy holds 818k BTC. New ATH this year? Possible.
But short term: price is ranging $79k–$81k. Volume weak at $10.6B. No breakout yet.
Long term bullish. Short term? Watch $79k support. If it holds, next leg up to $85k–$90k. If it breaks, lower first.
ATH needs volume and macro clarity. Patience.
Fernando Derx KPp1
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in 2026 you can buy BTC through: blackrock ETF, fidelity ETF etc institutionals are here. I believe there will be a new ATH this year. Just look at this chart on Liquid app
📊 ادارہ جاتی خبریں: • JPMorgan: Bitcoin ETFs میں تیسرے مہینے انفلو، BTC سونے کو پیچھے چھوڑ رہا ہے۔ • Strategy (MicroStrategy): 818,334 BTC ہولڈ کرتی ہے۔ ڈیویڈنڈ کے لیے بیچ سکتی ہے – مارکیٹ میں 42% امکان۔
🌍 عالمی خبریں: • ایران-امریکہ معاہدے کی امید ٹھنڈی – ٹرمپ نے کہا "جلد بازی" ہوگی۔ تیل $93-$99 کے درمیان۔ • Fed نے شرحیں 3.5%-3.75% پر رکھی ہیں۔ کوئی شرح کٹوتی نہیں۔
📉 تکنیکی: • سپورٹ ٹوٹ گئی۔ اگلی سپورٹ: $78,500 - $78,000۔ • مزاحمت: $80,500 - $81,000۔ واپسی کے لیے والیم $15B سے اوپر چاہیے۔ • موجودہ قیمت سے نیچے $15B کے لانگ لیکویڈیشن کا خطرہ۔
📌 حکمت عملی: فلیٹ رہو۔ بریک ڈاؤن پر شاٹ، یا $80.5k واپس ملنے پر لانگ۔
کیا ہوا؟ BTC نے $82.8k سے اوپر جانے کی دو بار کوشش کی لیکن ناکام رہا۔ والیم کم ہے – کوئی حقیقی یقین نہیں۔ یہ ریجیکٹ اس بات کی تصدیق ہے کہ ہم ابھی رینج میں ہیں۔
انسٹی ٹیوشنل نقطہ نظر: • ETFs میں 5 مئی کو $467M انفلو ہوا۔ بلیک راک نے $251M شامل کیا۔ • Strategy کے پاس 818,334 BTC ہیں (کل سپلائی کا 3.9%)۔
لیکویڈیٹی وارننگ: بائنانس سے مستحکم سکے کی نکاسی 25 اپریل سے $11.8B سے تجاوز کر گئی – نئی خریداری کی طاقت کم ہو رہی ہے۔
حکمت عملی: • کوئی مضبوط والیم نہیں = کوئی یقین نہیں۔ فلیٹ رہو۔ • لانگ صرف واپسی $80,500 – $80,000 پر۔ • شاٹ صرف $82,800 – $83,200 سے تصدیق شدہ ریجیکٹ پر (والیم کے ساتھ)۔
WHAT HAPPENED? BTC attempted to break above $82.8k twice but failed. Volume remains low – no real conviction. The rejection confirms we are still in a range.
PROBABILITY: 📉 Downside to $80k – $79.5k: 60% 📈 Upside to $82k – $83k: 40%
INSTITUTIONAL VIEW: • ETFs saw $467M inflow on May 5. BlackRock added $251M. • Strategy holds 818,334 BTC (~3.9% of supply).
LIQUIDITY WARNING: Binance stablecoin outflows exceeded $11.8B since April 25 – fresh buying power shrinking.
STRATEGY: • No strong volume = no conviction. Stay flat. • Long only on pullback to $80,500 – $80,000. • Short only on confirmed rejection at $82,800 – $83,200 with volume.
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