The traditional Bitcoin 4-year cycle has, for the first time in 14 years, failed to repeat. The clearest signal is simple: •The year following the 2024 halving did not continue higher •2025 closed lower instead, something unseen in prior post halving periods That deviation matters because earlier cycles depended on a very specific market setup. In previous cycles: •Halving removed a large amount of new supply •Market depth was relatively thin •Even moderate demand could move price meaningfully That structure no longer exists. By the 2024 halving: •Daily issuance dropped by only a few hundred BTC •Overall market liquidity had grown exponentially •Macro forces began to outweigh issuance effects Today, Bitcoin responds more directly to: •Dollar liquidity and real interest rates •ETF inflows and outflows •Institutional positioning and capital allocation •Broader economic expansions and slowdowns Supply reduction still plays a role, but it no longer dictates direction on its own. Bitcoin has shifted from a supply shock led market to a liquidity sensitive market. That shift explains why time based cycle expectations failed in 2025, without implying structural weakness in the asset.
The traditional Bitcoin 4-year cycle has, for the first time in 14 years, failed to repeat.
The clearest signal is simple: •The year following the 2024 halving did not continue higher •2025 closed lower instead, something unseen in prior post halving periods
That deviation matters because earlier cycles depended on a very specific market setup.
In previous cycles: •Halving removed a large amount of new supply •Market depth was relatively thin •Even moderate demand could move price meaningfully That structure no longer exists.
By the 2024 halving: •Daily issuance dropped by only a few hundred BTC •Overall market liquidity had grown exponentially •Macro forces began to outweigh issuance effects
Today, Bitcoin responds more directly to: •Dollar liquidity and real interest rates •ETF inflows and outflows •Institutional positioning and capital allocation •Broader economic expansions and slowdowns
Supply reduction still plays a role, but it no longer dictates direction on its own.
Bitcoin has shifted from a supply shock led market to a liquidity sensitive market.
That shift explains why time based cycle expectations failed in 2025, without implying structural weakness in the asset.$BTC $ETH
Liquidations were frequent. 💥 Leverage kept getting wiped. Price moved fast, but rarely clean. One day up, next day fully retraced. 🔄
On top of that, macro pressure never really went away. War headlines, tariff discussions, global uncertainty. Risk appetite stayed weak for most of the year and that showed in price action.
It was mentally exhausting, even for people who have been in crypto for years.
But years like 2025 are important. They force you to slow down. They expose bad habits. They teach you why risk management matters more than being right.
As we head into 2026, the opportunity isn’t about chasing hype. 🚫 It’s about being patient 🕰, staying disciplined and using the lessons from this year.
If you survived 2025 in crypto, you’ve already learned a lot. 🙌$BTC $BNB
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