burakkesmeci
5 Beiträge
burakkesmeci
💹 Verified Analist at CryptoQuant / KMQuant ❝❞ CoinDesk / Cointelegraph / Fortune / The Block
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Übersetzung ansehen
$BTC US Sell-Side Pressure Persists, EPD at -0.043 EPD (Exchange Price Delta) is essentially the price gap between U.S. exchanges and the rest, meaning it measures the appetite of American institutions and whales. In 2026 almost the entire chart is red, meaning demand on the U.S. side has been weak since January and sell-side pressure dominates. The one strong exception was the green cluster in early April, when U.S. institutions turned buyers and carried price from 62K to 82K. But in May the EPD flipped back to red, the American side turned seller, and price slammed back down to 62K. Conclusion. U.S. demand leads price in this metric, and right now EPD is still negative at -0.043. It is recovering off the bottom but has not turned green yet, meaning U.S. institutions have not flipped back to buyers. This bounce at 64.4K has no domestic demand confirmation, and for a lasting reversal we need to see EPD push above zero. Thank you for reading. #BTC Price Analysis# #bitcoin #btc #BTC Correction Incoming?#
Übersetzung ansehen
If $BTC BTC Breaks $53,551, What Happens?
It happened 3 times in history — each time, it dropped more than 30%.
If You Want to See BTC's Real Bottom, Look at Realized Price.
What Is Realized Price?
Realized Price is the average price at which every BTC on-chain last changed hands. Think of it as the market's average cost basis. When BTC falls below this level, the majority of the market goes underwater. Panic selling begins, weak hands capitulate, and real buyers step in.
In the last 8 years, this happened exactly 3 times.
3 Historical Periods
2018-2019 Bear Market: RP stayed broken for 133 days. BTC dropped 33.3% below Realized Price.
2022-2023 Bear Market: RP stayed broken for 210 days. BTC dropped 28.2% below Realized Price.
2020 Covid Crash: Only 7 days. A 4.4% deviation, followed by a fast recovery.
The common thread: selling pressure continued as long as BTC stayed below RP — and once it reclaimed it, a strong rally followed every single time.
Where We Stand Today
BTC is at $61,255. Realized Price is at $53,551. We're only 14.4% above RP.
It takes just a 12.6% drop to reach it. If RP breaks, what does history say?
Best case, BTC briefly tests around $51,000 and recovers quickly. Based on the average of all three historical RP breakdowns, a ~22% deviation below RP puts the target around $41,800.
These aren't predictions. They're calculations based on historical RP deviation averages.
When investing in Bitcoin, always watch Realized Price. If $53,551 breaks, come back and read this analysis again.
Have you ever used Realized Price as a risk indicator this way? (Genuine answers in the comments welcome.)
Thanks for reading — if you found this useful, share it with 1 friend. #Bitcoin #BTC #BTC Correction Incoming?#
It happened 3 times in history — each time, it dropped more than 30%.
If You Want to See BTC's Real Bottom, Look at Realized Price.
What Is Realized Price?
Realized Price is the average price at which every BTC on-chain last changed hands. Think of it as the market's average cost basis. When BTC falls below this level, the majority of the market goes underwater. Panic selling begins, weak hands capitulate, and real buyers step in.
In the last 8 years, this happened exactly 3 times.
3 Historical Periods
2018-2019 Bear Market: RP stayed broken for 133 days. BTC dropped 33.3% below Realized Price.
2022-2023 Bear Market: RP stayed broken for 210 days. BTC dropped 28.2% below Realized Price.
2020 Covid Crash: Only 7 days. A 4.4% deviation, followed by a fast recovery.
The common thread: selling pressure continued as long as BTC stayed below RP — and once it reclaimed it, a strong rally followed every single time.
Where We Stand Today
BTC is at $61,255. Realized Price is at $53,551. We're only 14.4% above RP.
It takes just a 12.6% drop to reach it. If RP breaks, what does history say?
Best case, BTC briefly tests around $51,000 and recovers quickly. Based on the average of all three historical RP breakdowns, a ~22% deviation below RP puts the target around $41,800.
These aren't predictions. They're calculations based on historical RP deviation averages.
When investing in Bitcoin, always watch Realized Price. If $53,551 breaks, come back and read this analysis again.
Have you ever used Realized Price as a risk indicator this way? (Genuine answers in the comments welcome.)
Thanks for reading — if you found this useful, share it with 1 friend. #Bitcoin #BTC #BTC Correction Incoming?#
Übersetzung ansehen
$BTC fell below the SMA50, its short-term support level, and seller pressure intensified. A strengthening move toward the POC level is now underway. FRVP POC target: 69.8K. #Bitcoin
$BTC Kurzfristige Kostencluster ziehen an: Wenn 88K bricht, ändert sich die Geschichte. Ein Blick auf die Kostencluster der kurzfristigen Halter durch die UTXO-Altersbands-Metrik von Bitcoin zeigt, dass sich eine wichtige Entwicklung entfaltet. Die Kostenbasis der 1-4 Wochen Kohorte ist von 67K auf 76K gestiegen. Dieses Cluster hat begonnen, über das nächste nach oben (1-3 Monate → 68K) zu klettern. Man könnte es als einen kleinen, aber bedeutenden goldenen Schnitt bezeichnen. Warum ist das wichtig? Weil kurzfristige Halter der Momentum-Motor des Marktes sind. Wenn diese Gruppe Verluste hat, erzeugen sie Verkaufsdruck. Wenn sie profitabel werden, liefern sie das erste Signal für eine Stimmungswende. Kostencluster, die sich von unten nach oben ausrichten, sind das Fundament einer gesunden Trendstruktur. Genau diese Ausrichtung beginnt sich gerade jetzt zu bilden. Das nächste Ziel ist das 3-6 Monate-Cluster: 88K. Dies ist ein kritischer Widerstand für Bitcoin. Wenn der Preis über 88K schließt, werden alle kurzfristigen Kohortencluster positiv, die kurzfristigen Halter bewegen sich in den Gewinn, und sie beginnen, Erfolgsgeschichten mit allen um sie herum zu teilen. Das wäre das wirkliche Signal für eine Trendwende. Aber zuerst gibt es eine starke Hürde zu überwinden: 88K. Glaubst du, dass Bitcoin im Mai 2026 über 88K brechen kann? #Bitcoin #BTC #BTC Preis Analyse#
Nicht so schnell. Bitcoin hat den Realisierten Preis der Kurzzeit-Halter (~$79K) zurückerobert — die Kostenbasis der Investoren, die in den letzten 155 Tagen gekauft haben — aber ein täglicher Schlusskurs über diesem Niveau reicht nicht aus, um den Bullenmarkt wiederherzustellen. Die Geschichte zeigt, dass BTC während Bärenphasen kurzzeitig den STH RP durchbrechen kann, nur um abgelehnt zu werden und wieder darunter zu fallen. Das echte Bestätigungssignal wären zwei aufeinanderfolgende wöchentliche Schlusskurse über dem STH RP. Bis das passiert, fungiert dieses Niveau eher als Widerstand als als Sprungbrett. Ermutigend? Ja. Entscheidungsfreudig? Noch nicht.
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