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Up 0.50% today while the ceasefire noise dominates every timeline. Everyone said the gold trade was dead when it crashed. I said buy the dip.
The thesis hasn't changed. The war isn't over. A 45-day ceasefire framework is being DISCUSSED, not signed. Prediction markets give it 1% chance by Tuesday. Oil options are still pricing $150/barrel scenarios with 29,000 lots of $150 calls.
Until there's an actual signed ceasefire with a date, gold's safe haven bid is intact. The crash from $5,400 to $4,600 was a shakeout, not a trend reversal.
Silver is also bouncing. Up 0.52% to $73.37 today after that brutal 5.4% dump.
Updated Gold Levels:
Still in from the $4,500-$4,650 buy zone TP1: $4,800 (approaching) TP2: $5,000 TP3: $5,200 SL: moved to $4,450 (tighter risk after bounce confirmation)
The key risk for this trade is Tuesday. If a real ceasefire happens, gold drops hard because the safe haven premium unwinds. I'll exit if that happens. But betting on a 1% probability event as my base case isn't smart trading.
Trade what IS, not what might be. Gold is bouncing. The war isn't over. The setup is working.
$XAUT and $PAXG on Binance for the crypto-native play.
Who's still in gold? Or did the crash shake you out?
Third time at the $2,100-$2,200 resistance zone in 5 weeks. February rejection. March rejection. And now April is lining up the same way.
You know what they say about testing resistance three times? Either it breaks through with massive volume or it forms a triple top and dumps hard.
I don't see the volume for a breakout. Today's move was driven by the BTC short squeeze and ceasefire headlines, not fresh ETH demand. Whales are distributing while retail accumulates. The Death Cross is still forming on the daily. ETH/BTC ratio is still crushed.
And here's the thing about $ETH at $2,160. Every single time I've sold this zone in 2026, it's been a winning trade. March sell at $2,150 hit TP1 and TP2. The pattern keeps repeating.
Here’s Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Could Keep Crashing This Week
Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are still trending low coming out of the weekend, and there is the possibility that this could continue this new week. A number of developments have hit the crypto market recently that could deepen the already negative sentiment surrounding the crypto industry. Thus, with Bitcoin and Ethereum being the foremost digital assets in the space, they could be hit first by the wave of negative news coming out of the market.
US-Iran War Is Far From Over: Bitcoin, Ethereum Prices Could Crash Back in February 2026, the United States had attacked Iranian military forces, leading to what is now known as the US-Iran war. Since then, tensions have remained high, the financial markets have suffered greatly as a result, and risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum have not been left out. In the month that followed the initial attack, there had been talks of a ceasefire. However, President Donald Trump, in his latest address, completely dashed the hopes of a ceasefire. According to a report from SoSoValue, this has now pushed things toward escalation, rather than a resolution. With President Trump dismissing the need for global oil and leaving the Strait of Hormuz to be guarded by other nations, oil prices are expected to ramp up higher during this time. In addition, there is the expectation of interest rate hikes, and this could negatively affect the $BTC and $ETH prices during this time. Crypto Market Hit By Another Hack With the move into the bear market and Bitcoin and Ethereum prices crashing, attacks on the crypto market seemed to have slowed down. That is, until now, when news of the DRIFT Protocol hack broke during the weekend. According to reports, the Solana protocol had been targeted by North Korean threat actors, who eventually succeeded. In just 12 minutes, these bad actors were able to infiltrate the protocols wallets and make away with $285 million, with the attack attributed to the Lazarus Group. Naturally, the movement of liquidity out of the market remains a major concern given that Bitcoin and Ethereum are already suffering from low liquidity. The DRIFT token also crashed 40% once the news broke, leaving the market in a state of shock. On-chain sleuth ZachXBT also took to X to call out Circle for failing to act while the USDC from the DRIFT attack was being moved across over 100 transactions. The funds have since been moved from Solana to Ethereum, leaving users wondering as to what is being done to protect against these threat actors.Sentiment Falls Toward Record Levels Another factor that could drive down the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices is the fact that investors are still very wary of putting money into the market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently sitting in the Extreme Fear territory, which marks a time of low liquidity and participation in the market.
If sentiment does not begin to improve and liquidity does not flow back into the market, then the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices could continue to decline. This could trigger a cascading event where investors panic-sell in order to reduce losses, thereby leading to a steep decline.
$196 million in shorts got liquidated. 3-to-1 ratio of shorts vs longs getting wiped. The biggest single liquidation was a $10.17 million ETH short on Binance.
And the squeeze might not be over.
According to Coinglass data, there's $2.5 BILLION in short positions that get liquidated if $BTC reaches $72,000. That's only 3% above current price. Three percent.
What triggered this? Axios reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war. Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are mediating. This is the most concrete de-escalation signal since the conflict started.
Net buy-side taker volume on Binance hit $595 million today. Open interest expanded by $136 million. Traders aren't just covering shorts, they're adding fresh longs.
If $72K hits, the cascading liquidation of $2.5B in shorts could push price straight to $74K without stopping. That's how squeezes work. Each liquidation creates more buying pressure which liquidates the next cluster above.
The risk? Trump also said Iran has until TUESDAY to open the Strait of Hormuz. If Tuesday comes with escalation instead of a deal, all these fresh longs become the fuel for a dump. Keep your stop tight.
The setup is clear. The risk is clear. Trade the levels, not the hope.