The median max drawdown across major IPOs was around -54% within 1 year.
And these were not small companies.
Most of them were industry leaders, heavily hyped by media, backed by top institutions, and considered “must own” stocks before listing.
Now look at SpaceX.
The company is reportedly targeting a valuation of around $1.75-$2 TRILLION.
That would instantly make it one of the largest companies in the world.
At the same time: • Retail demand is extremely high • The IPO float may stay very small • And early investors are sitting on massive gains from private rounds.
This is the exact setup where IPO prices can disconnect from fundamentals very quickly.
History shows retail investors usually enter during peak excitement while early investors slowly get liquidity after listing.
Facebook became a great business long term. Still, its stock max drawdown within a year was 54%.
Coinbase became one of the largest crypto companies in the world. Still, its stock max drawdown within a year was 57%.
A successful company does not always mean it'll go up only after IPO.
That is the part retail investors usually ignore during highly hyped listings and become the exit liquidity.
🚨 MICHAEL SAYLOR'S STRATEGY: A Bitcoin crash can't force Saylor to sell. Running OUT OF CASH can.
Strategy holds 843,706 BTC, 4% of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist, and NONE of it is pledged as collateral.
So how does the machine BREAK?
1. The dividend drain. Strategy OWES about $1.7B a year in payments it can't skip. Its cash reserve has fallen to $871M. That's six months of runway.
2. The loop tightens. STRC trades at $94.65, under its $100 par. That trips Strategy's own rule: below $95, raise the dividend rate by 50bps or more. A higher rate means bigger payments, which drain the reserve faster. The fix makes the hole deeper.
3. The cash calls. Bondholders CAN demand $4.5B back, and they'll want cash, not stock. The notes convert at $183, $433 and $672. MSTR isn't close to any of them. $1B in Sept 2027. $2B in March 2028. $1.5B in June 2028.
Trigger 1 ALREADY fired. They sold 32 BTC in late May to cover a dividend, the first sale in four years.
A company with billions in reserve doesn't do that. A company down to $871M does.
Trigger 2 is live right now. Trigger 3 is 15 months out.
This was never a margin call risk. It's the cash they're LEGALLY on the hook for.
Gold rebounded, benefiting from a weaker US dollar and lower bond yields.
All eyes are on the developments in the US-Iran peace talks, particularly given the possibility of a comprehensive diplomatic agreement that would end tensions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Any positive development in this matter could significantly alter market direction in the coming period.
🚨 The CLARITY Act officially advances in the US Senate 👀
The bill was placed on the Senate legislative agenda on June 1st, after receiving approval from the Banking Committee 🔥
📌 Next steps:
• Senate Majority Leader to schedule debate and vote
• 60 votes needed to override a filibuster
• If passed, the House of Representatives must approve the final version before it is sent to the President for signature
⏳ Expected timeline:
• A vote is likely in June or July
• It could become law in the fall of 2026 if it receives legislative priority
Despite procedural hurdles in the Senate, the bill's previous passage in the House by a strong majority of 294 to 134 gives it significant political momentum 📈
🔴 Despite escalating tensions between the US and Iran, gold is declining!
The reason is that markets are fearing a new wave of inflation due to rising energy risks, which could force central banks to postpone interest rate cuts and keep rates high for a longer period.
The dollar and bond yields have received a significant boost, while gold has come under some pressure.
"The Transparency Act is not just a cryptocurrency law. It's a decision about whether America will lead the next financial system or watch from the sidelines."
$BTC The similarities between the price action following these two major conflicts so far are crazy.
> Pretty much exactly 4 years after each other. > Price sold off 50% from its top prior. > Relative strength initially & bounce 30-40%. > Retrace entire move.
From there on out 2022 moved into a much deeper bear market which is yet to be seen. Different times, different macro and stock market is ATHs now which it wasn't then. Still, thus far the price action and charts have shaped up extremely similar which is an interesting observation I think.
🇺🇸 NEW US BILL PROPOSES 50% PUBLIC OWNERSHIP IN LARGEST AI COMPANIES
Senator Bernie Sanders introduces a bill that will impose a 50% tax on the stock of the biggest AI firms in the US.
"No longer would the future of AI be dictated by a handful of big tech oligarchs while the rest of the world sits back and watches them do what they want."