The price continues to fluctuate between 62,000 and 64,000 BTC, but the overall trend is upward.
With significant liquidity at the 68,000 to 70,000 BTC level, the market may see a liquidation of low-liquidity traders before a true upward move begins.
The hashrate is the lifeblood of Bitcoin, and it's currently in a state of continuous decline.
The hashrate is an indicator of the network's physical security and a testament to miners' ability to sustain the price using the necessary energy and capital.
Therefore, when the 30-day moving average drops in tandem with the price, it warrants attention.
But context is important: this isn't unprecedented.
Bitcoin's hashrate has fallen significantly several times, most notably during the 2021 mining ban in China (-43%), as well as declines in 2018 (-28%), 2022 (-10%), the 2024 mining reward halving (-8%), and even as late as 2025 (-14%).
Historically, hashrate drops have tended to occur around cycle lows, where inefficient miners give up and cease operations.
Currently, the decline is still slight – around -6.6% (7 days) and -3.0% (30 days) – and much less severe than previous capitulations.
Mining difficulty remains at +4.9% (after 30 days), putting pressure on miners' profit margins, yet their reserves are almost unchanged – miners are holding onto them and not selling.
In conclusion: the drop in the hashrate is consistent with the historical pattern of miners capitulating, which is a trough of the cycle, not a crisis.
The key level to watch is whether this decline will remain slight at -3% or deepen towards the -10% to -40% drops seen in previous lows. So far, the former seems more likely – caution, not panic, with further declines.
Bitcoin's liquidity chart, showing a significant gap above the price as the price pulls back towards the $70,000 level, highlights the first strong liquidity zone.
Above this, the $79,000-$81,000 area has become a major liquidity pool.
The price remains weak at these lower levels, but the accumulated liquidity above could become the target for a future bounce.
Currently, if the $70,000 level fails to hold, the downward pressure could persist.
For a recovery, Bitcoin first needs to reclaim the $72,000-$73,000 area.
The market is fluctuating between two equally likely possibilities:
Was the $60,000 price point in February the lowest point the price has reached, or will the downtrend continue?
In my opinion, the data suggests that we haven't yet seen a bottom, and there's a greater than 50% probability of the price falling further (below the 200-week moving average at $61,000 or the current price at $53,000).
Did you panic when Bitcoin hit $75,000 and then quickly dropped to $72,500?
Let me tell you a secret that 95% of traders in the market don't know...
This wasn't random price movement or #random_selling, but rather precise financial engineering.
1️⃣ The Gamma Magnet at $75,000
🧲 There were approximately $8 billion in short gamma contracts expiring at the $75,000 level.
This level acted as a massive reverse magnet, pulling the price down to $72,500 to close the contracts with minimal losses for market makers.
And the good news?
After the expiration on the morning of May 29, the gamma reset was completed, and the field is now open with liquidity redistributed without a single price wall in control.
2️⃣ Fear is fading, and the demand for protection is declining.
🛡️ The skew indicator (25 Delta Skew) remains positive at around 14%, meaning that traders are still paying a premium for buying puts compared to calls, but at a much lower rate than at the beginning of the month.
Even the psychological support level of $70,000 saw a decrease in put buying and profit-taking, reflecting growing confidence that the current bottom is strong and holding.
3️⃣ Volatility Risk Premium:
Implied volatility (IV) briefly rose during the decline to above 35%, then quickly recovered and stabilized at 32%.
What's interesting here is that options contracts are still pricing in a much larger price movement than what happens in the spot market, by a full 7 pips (VRP).
What does this mean in trading terms?
The current calm is the calm before the storm.
4️⃣ The perfect balance before the storm:
Trader flows over the past 7 days are almost evenly split at 25% each for buy and sell bull and bear contracts.
This perfect balance means there's a temporary lack of a clear trend, which is the perfect time for whales to accumulate positions before the next big move.