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Bitcoin's supply is currently under pressure, with 6.6 million BTC purchased at prices exceeding the current market value.

This on-chain data suggests a potential factor in future price fluctuations, particularly if Bitcoin experiences a price surge.

Maartunn, a CryptoQuant community analyst, highlighted this in a recent X post. Over 6.6 million BTC is presently held at a loss, according to the "Supply In Loss" indicator. This metric tracks the total Bitcoin supply that is currently experiencing a net unrealized loss.

The metric functions by examining the transaction history of every circulating token, pinpointing the price at which it last changed hands on the blockchain. If that previous transfer price exceeds the current spot price for any coin, that specific token is deemed to be in a state of loss.

Supply In Loss aggregates all coins meeting this criterion to provide a comprehensive view of the network's status. A corresponding metric, Supply In Profit, tracks the supply of coins in the opposite condition.

Here's the chart, courtesy of Maartunn, illustrating the trend in Bitcoin Supply In Loss over the past several years:

The graph above shows that the Bitcoin Supply In Loss plummeted to zero when the asset reached its all-time high (ATH) of over $126,000 in October. However, the subsequent market decline has caused this indicator's value to surge.

Currently, approximately 6.6 million Bitcoin tokens are trading below their cost basis, representing roughly a third of the circulating supply. These recent peaks in the Supply In Loss reflect the most significant market distress seen since 2023.
In a separate X post, the analyst presented a chart illustrating the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), a Bitcoin indicator. This particular metric provides insight into the price points at which Bitcoin was last purchased, encompassing all historical price levels the asset has experienced.

The URPD chart reveals the current distribution of Bitcoin supply currently at a loss. Certain price levels are clearly significant in terms of the amount of supply they hold, while others are comparatively sparse.

Typically, investors sitting on losses hope for a return to their original purchase price, effectively wanting to "break even." When this occurs, some of these holders choose to sell, anticipating a further decline in Bitcoin's value. This selling pressure can create substantial supply concentrations above the current price, which could lead to increased volatility.

#USGDPUpdate #USCryptoStakingTaxReview #BTCVSGOLD #PrivacyCoinSurge #BinanceAlphaAlert $BTC $ETH $BNB

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index indicates that the average investor's mood has remained firmly in the extreme fear zone.

The "Fear & Greed Index," developed by Alternative, provides a snapshot of the prevailing sentiment among traders in the Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency markets. This index gauges sentiment by analyzing data from five key factors: market cap dominance, trading volume, Google Trends, social sentiment, and volatility.
The index is then expressed numerically, ranging from zero to one hundred.

Values exceeding fifty-three signify investor greed, whereas those below forty-seven suggest fear. Values between these two points indicate a neutral market sentiment.

In addition to these three primary categories, the Fear & Greed Index includes two "extreme" zones: extreme fear and extreme greed. Extreme fear is identified at or below twenty-five, while extreme greed is indicated above seventy-five.

Bitcoin is currently experiencing extreme fear, according to the Fear & Greed Index.

The index, as shown, is at a value of 23, reflecting the prevailing sentiment in the cryptocurrency world. This widespread fear isn't a recent development; the index has been hovering in this range for the past few weeks.

The chart clearly illustrates that the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has registered extreme fear for thirteen straight days, highlighting the pervasive FUD currently affecting the market.
If the past is any guide, this pervasive fear might not be such a terrible omen for Bitcoin and its digital asset peers. The markets for these assets frequently zig when the public zags.

The likelihood of a reversal is usually highest when sentiment is at its most extreme, with significant price peaks and troughs historically coinciding with these periods.

The November price low, which has held as Bitcoin's bottom to date, also coincided with a prolonged period of extreme fear. However, that extreme fear didn't seem to spark a lasting bullish trend for BTC, as the asset has only been consolidating since then.
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Reports indicate that Joshua , the founder of Triblu, has proposed a bold possibility: XRP holders could potentially become millionaires, billionaires, or even trillionaires if the token were integrated into a US strategic crypto reserve.

XRP, due to its association with a US-based company, is a more secure candidate for a national reserve compared to Bitcoin. This assertion has sparked interest in certain segments of the crypto community, though it also encounters significant legal and market hurdles.

Reports indicate the US national debt hovers around $38 trillion. Ripple's escrow currently contains approximately 34.4 billion XRP. Given these numbers, Dalton and others estimate that an XRP price of roughly $883 would be necessary to cover approximately 80% of that debt.

XRP is currently trading at approximately $1.91. This would represent an increase of over 46,000% for the token. In contrast, Bitcoin is trading near $89,000 and would need to reach roughly $30 million per coin to achieve a similar debt-offset objective, assuming a focus on 1 million BTC, a concept previously proposed by US Senator Cynthia Lummis. This would represent a gain exceeding 33,000% from present levels.

Ripple's escrow is, crucially, privately managed and bound by contracts. A government can't simply seize it; they'd need legal grounds, and probably a protracted legal battle. Even if US authorities somehow acquired a significant amount of XRP, flooding the global markets with it would probably depress the price, not inflate it. Markets aren't designed to handle trillions of dollars without significant disruption.

Holders And Wealth Scenarios

According to wallet data, certain XRP addresses would experience substantial nominal gains at a $880 price point. Consider this: a holder with 10,000 XRP, currently valued at roughly $19,100, could see their holdings swell to almost $9 million on paper.

A total of 179,546 wallets currently contain between 5,000 and 10,000 XRP. Roughly 2,006 addresses are in the 500,000 to 1 million XRP range. However, the majority of the most substantial reserves are concentrated within Ripple, its founders, or various exchanges. Just 20 wallets possess between 500 million and 1 billion XRP, and a mere six addresses hold over 1 billion XRP.

Matthew Sigel, VanEck's lead researcher, has publicly championed Bitcoin as the most promising option for significant fiscal applications, though some analysts are still doubtful about any single cryptocurrency being the solution to national debt.

Coach JV and others have begun to focus on 2026, suggesting it could be a pivotal year for XRP's price, presenting the outlook as both speculative and time-sensitive. These perspectives are largely driven by sentiment and depend on elements outside of government policy, including market demand and regulatory developments.

#xrp #USCryptoStakingTaxReview #SECTokenizedStocksPlan #CryptoETFMonth #CPIWatch $XRP $BTC $ETH

Crypto has a short memory. Every cycle, we pretend the next shiny thing will save us. Memes run, leverage explodes, then reality taps the chart. And every time that happens, the market slowly drifts back to the same place: assets that actually produce something. That’s why I’ve been looking at ZIGChain through a very specific lens.

ZIGChain is a newly launched Layer 1 built for Real World Assets. But the token behind it, $ZIG, has been around since 2021. That detail matters. A lot. We’re not talking about a brand-new token inventing history. We’re talking about a chain upgrade powered by a token that already survived a full market cycle. New chain, seasoned token. That’s usually where re-ratings start, not where they end.
I don’t see ZIG as a trading chip. I see it as a wealth generation thesis. The idea isn’t to flip candles or chase weekly pumps. It’s compounding. Staking. Structured products. Yield that comes from systems, not hype. That alone puts ZIG in a completely different mental bucket than most of what trends on crypto Twitter.
When people compare RWA plays, names like ONDO or PLUME come up fast. Fair. But here’s the part many miss: ZIG isn’t starting from zero users or zero flow. The ecosystem already brings 600,000+ registered users from Zignaly into the picture. That’s real distribution, not a pitch deck slide.
On-chain, the signals back it up. We’re talking about millions of transactions, hundreds of millions of $ZIG bridged, and a holder base that didn’t appear overnight. These aren’t vanity numbers. They show that ZIG has been used, not just talked about. TVL and volume move with market conditions, sure, but usage history doesn’t lie.
What really locks the thesis for me is the RWA infrastructure itself. Tokenised exposure to things like sports, media, and other real-world verticals changes where yield comes from. This isn’t emissions farming. It’s about plugging real economic activity into on-chain rails. Yield backed by something that exists off the chart.
Zooming out, ZIGChain being built within Cosmos is another underrated angle. Interoperability, shared liquidity, and access to a broader network mean this isn’t a closed ecosystem begging for attention. It’s connected by design.
I’m not here to promise returns. Markets don’t work like that. But I am saying this: when capital rotates from pure memes to yield-backed RWAs, assets with history, users, and structure tend to get noticed late. ZIG feels like one of those cases where the market hasn’t finished the math yet.

Several significant governance votes are wrapping up, including those concerning token burns for $UNI and $HYPE , which could significantly alter their supply.

Protocols are implementing various changes, such as emission reductions at $ASTER , alongside new integrations, expansions, and roadmap updates throughout DeFi.

Token distributions and launches are picking up speed, with HUMA rewards, Variational’s points program, and Superform’s UP token all gaining attention.

Over the next few days, a variety of crypto assets will be in the spotlight due to major governance votes, token supply adjustments, product launches, and ecosystem expansions.

The week ahead promises to be busy across multiple sectors, from established DeFi protocols to new platforms gearing up for token launches.

Governance votes and token economics are the primary focus.
#Uniswap is approaching a key governance deadline, with voting set to conclude on December 25 for a proposal that would burn 100 million UNI tokens and activate the long-discussed fee switch. The outcome could significantly affect UNI’s long-term supply dynamics and protocol revenue distribution.

Hyperliquid is also nearing the end of an important governance process. Voting on a proposal to burn $1 billion worth of #HYPE tokens closes on December 24. The proposal has drawn attention due to the scale of the planned burn and its potential impact on circulating supply.

#Aster will implement a reduction in token emissions on December 22.Market participants frequently scrutinize emission reductions, as they can alleviate selling pressure and reshape long-term incentive frameworks.

Aave's decentralized autonomous organization is currently navigating an internal disagreement concerning the control of AAVE brand assets. Though a final resolution is pending, the discussion underscores wider issues related to governance authority, decentralization, and intellectual property within major DeFi protocols.

Product launches and ecosystem expansions

Hey Anon, a project spearheaded by Daniele Sesta, is slated to debut a new prediction market platform later this month. Specifics are scarce, but excitement is mounting, given Sesta's track record in DeFi product design.

Aerodrome is gearing up to broaden its horizons, eyeing a shift into Ethereum’s Layer 1 ecosystem. This move promises to connect the protocol with greater liquidity and a wider audience.

Infinex plans to incorporate Synthetix and Lighter perpetuals, a step that could bolster its derivatives offerings and enhance access to synthetic assets and leveraged products.

Rails, a hybrid perpetual trading platform, is slated to unveil its roadmap on December 22. Market observers are eagerly anticipating details on product direction, feature deployment, and long-term strategy.

Token distributions and new launches.
Huma Finance plans to distribute its Huma Vanguard utility badges to HUMA stakers on December 24th. These badges are anticipated to be involved in upcoming governance or utility functions within the protocol.

Variational has rolled out its points program on Arbitrum, retroactively awarding points to current users. Points programs have become a common precursor to potential token launches or future rewards.

Superform, a user-owned stablecoin neobank, is gearing up to launch its UP token later this month. Although complete details are still forthcoming, the launch contributes to the increasing trend of DeFi-native financial infrastructure projects embracing tokenization.

Dogecoin is currently navigating a technically precarious zone, with $0.138 emerging as the critical price point the memecoin must recapture to bolster its long-term outlook.

Closing above $0.138 on three-day and weekly charts would see DOGE surpass both the macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-week simple moving average (SMA)—a convergence he characterized as "a major positive."

"A reclaim of .138 for #Dogecoin on 3D-1W closes would put it back above the macro .382 and the 200W SMA," he stated, further noting that DOGE is presently "mingle[ing] around in this ‘DCA’ zone."

The focus on higher-timeframe closes is particularly significant.
has consistently positioned $0.138 as a structural pivot, not just an intraday level. He believes that persistent closes beneath this point elevate the risk of a downturn and undermine the overall market structure.

This perspective echoes a previous post from November 22nd, when DOGE was still above $0.138. Back then labeled $0.138 as "massive support," cautioning against losing it on three-day or weekly closes.

In his latest analysis, Kevin once more linked Dogecoin's future to Bitcoin's ability to regain its technical levels. He suggested that a DOGE recovery of $0.138 would "likely coincide with BTC reclaiming the $88,000–$91,000 zone," which he deemed essential for rekindling upward momentum.

A separate analysis, explained his current reservations about Bitcoin's short-term prospects. He pointed out in a Bitcoin-centric post that BTC has been turned away from its crucial 4-hour moving averages nine times since October 12th, and hasn't managed to stay above them for a single day since mid-September.

Though he emphasized the importance of the three-day and weekly timeframes, he maintained that without Bitcoin surpassing those moving averages and reclaiming the $88,000–$91,000 range on higher-timeframe closes, it's challenging to definitively call a bottom, as bearish momentum persists.

"While the 3D-1W TF’s are the main focus, it's worth noting that until BTC reestablishes itself above these key MAs and the 88K-91K zone on 3D-1W, you can't confidently confirm a bottom yet, and the momentum still favors the bears."
"If BTC clears those hurdles, then we can talk," he stated.

Looking further ahead has pointed to the $0.143–$0.127 zone as a critical juncture for DOGE. In a June 2025 update, he observed that since the weekly RSI broke out in 2022, Dogecoin has consistently rebounded after dipping below 40 on the weekly RSI, a pattern he identified as happening five times. "A breakdown of this weekly RSI level, coupled with a failure to hold the .143-.127 range, would mark the dividing line between a prolonged bearish trend or a resumption of the bull market," he cautioned.

#DOGE $DOGE

XRP, currently the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, has seen a roughly 50% pullback from its peak of $3.65 earlier this year, a trend that's been echoed across the crypto market.

Amidst this fluctuation, a new AI simulation model has generated price projections for the coming year, offering investors a clearer view.

Market researcher Sam Daodu recently shared findings from a Monte Carlo simulation of XRP's price trajectory, utilizing 10,000 pathways to encompass a wide range of potential outcomes.

Rather than a single forecast, the results present a probability distribution, complete with mean, median, and percentile data.

Daodu noted that the XRP modeling results indicate a spectrum of possibilities. The average price across the 10,000 simulations is $2.78, surpassing current levels.

Conversely, the median price, at $1.88, suggests that half of the predicted results are below $2. The mean is skewed by a small number of high estimates, while the median provides a more accurate representation of the most probable scenarios.

Daodu's analysis of the 25th and 75th percentiles—the interquartile range—was undertaken to ascertain a more probable price range. The simulation results indicate that 25% of the scenarios project XRP prices below $1.04, and 75% below $3.40.

Approximately 60% of the scenarios forecast XRP's price within the $1.04 to $3.40 range by 2026, with a median of $1.88.

A 10% Probability of Falling Below $0.59

Furthermore, the research also presents the most favorable outcomes within the upper tail of the distribution.
Approximately one in ten scenarios project end-of-year prices exceeding $5.90, the 90th percentile.

The analyst posits that to achieve new all-time highs approaching $6, we need consistent institutional inflows via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) exceeding $50 million daily throughout 2026, greater adoption of XRP by banks for cross-border transactions, and regulatory certainty without significant obstacles.

Yet, the simulation also highlights potential pitfalls. The worst 10% of outcomes suggest XRP could fall below $0.59, implying a 10% probability of a value loss exceeding 70% by 2026.
Stricter bitcoin custody rules and SEC settlements could be fueling this pessimism.

Daodu believes that unmet expectations for XRP's utility could erode investor confidence, leading to a price decline.

XRP saw a 2% dip over the last day, though CoinMarketcap data indicates it's still trading within the $1.9 range that analysts expect to hold until next year.