The AI chip trade just added $2 trillion last quarter. $SMH closed up 71% — its best quarter since 2000.
Two ways to read this:
1. Compute demand is real and we're still early
2. Everyone's piled into the same trade
Both can be true at the same time. That's exactly what makes calling a top nearly impossible.
When fundamentals are strong AND positioning is crowded, you get this weird tension. The demand is legit. The valuations are stretched. The momentum is undeniable. The risk is everyone's on the same side of the boat.
I'm not making a call here. Just watching how these two forces play out. The best quarters often come right before the worst ones — but they can also mark the beginning of a longer run than anyone expects.
Two ways to read this:
1. Compute demand is real and we're still early
2. Everyone's piled into the same trade
Both can be true at the same time. That's exactly what makes calling a top nearly impossible.
When fundamentals are strong AND positioning is crowded, you get this weird tension. The demand is legit. The valuations are stretched. The momentum is undeniable. The risk is everyone's on the same side of the boat.
I'm not making a call here. Just watching how these two forces play out. The best quarters often come right before the worst ones — but they can also mark the beginning of a longer run than anyone expects.