BTC vs. Alts: Is the 2025 Bull Run Ending or Just Taking a Breath? 🚀📉
As we close out December 2025, the "Moon" talk has quieted down and been replaced by cautious analysis. After Bitcoin ($BTC) touched staggering highs of $126,000 earlier this year, the current retracement to the $85,000–$88,000 range has many wondering: Is the party over?
Here is the breakdown of what’s actually happening:
1️⃣ The Bitcoin "Health Check" 🩺
Bitcoin is currently testing critical support levels. The $82,800 mark (2-year SMA) is the line in the sand.
Bullish Case: Institutional demand through ETFs remains the backbone of this cycle. If BTC holds above $85k, we could see a final Q4/Q1 2026 push toward the $150k psychological barrier.
Bearish Case: Increased macro pressure from the Bank of Japan and profit-taking by long-term holders could lead to a deeper "flush" before the next leg up.
2️⃣ The Altseason Myth vs. Reality 🎭
Where is the Altseason? Unlike 2021, the "rising tide" isn't lifting all boats.
Fragmentation: With over 12 million tokens now in existence, liquidity is spread thin.
The Winners: Capital is being surgical. Instead of a general rally, we’re seeing "Sector Seasons." Solana ($SOL), AI agents, and DePIN are the clear 2025 leaders.
Dominance: BTC dominance is still hovering near 57–58%. Until this drops significantly, a broad altcoin "moon mission" remains on standby.
3️⃣ Strategy for the End of 2025 🛡️
Avoid the "Garbage" Trap: Stop chasing low-liquidity coins that didn't move during the peak. If they didn't pump at $120k BTC, they likely won't now.
Watch ETF Inflows: Institutional sentiment is our best "early warning" system.
Patience: Historically, the post-halving peak often lands 12–18 months after the event, putting the true cycle top in the first half of 2026.
The Bottom Line: We aren't in a bear market; we are in a "Selective Bull Market.
Always (DYOR)🙏
