wintermute

Is the 4-Year Cycle Dead? Wintermute’s 2026 Outlook

The crypto market structure has fundamentally shifted. 2025 was a wake-up call for many: while Bitcoin reached new heights, the "altcoin season" we all expected felt more like a "selective squeeze."
According to market maker Wintermute, the traditional four-year cycle is becoming obsolete. Liquidity is no longer "recycling" from $BTC to ALTs like it used to. Instead, capital is becoming concentrated in institutional-grade assets.

Why 2025 Felt Different
• Narrow Breadth: Altcoin rallies averaged just 20 days, down from 60 days in 2024. 
• ETF Dominance: Capital is "trapped" in institutional channels (BTC/ETH ETFs) and isn't rotating into the broader ecosystem. 
• Retail Fatigue: Individual investors are currently distracted by high-growth themes like AI, Robotics, and Space equities.

The 3 Keys to a 2026 Comeback
Wintermute identifies three specific outcomes that could reignite the broader market:
1. Expanded Mandates: ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) must move beyond just BTC and ETH. 
2. Wealth Effect 2.0: A massive, sustained move in major assets that forces "spillover" liquidity into the rest of the market. 
3. Retail Mindshare: Winning back individual investors who are currently chasing gains in traditional tech and commodities.

The Macro Catalyst: The Fed
Beyond market structure, Clear Street’s Owen Lau notes that 2026 hinges on the Federal Reserve. Aggressive rate cuts could create the "cheap capital" environment needed to bring risk-on appetite back to the forefront.

My Take: We are moving from a speculative market to an infrastructure-driven one. Don't wait for a "cycle"—watch the liquidity flows and institutional mandates.

What do you think? Is the 4-year cycle officially dead, or are we just in a "mid-way" consolidation? Let me know in the comments! 👇

#Bitcoin #Crypto2026 #Wintermute #MarketAnalysis #ArifAlpha

⚡️ 流动性集中在“基础资产”：Wintermute 指出旧版山寨币季已死？
Wintermute 的分析师发布了最新报告，这些数据引人深思。2025 年的加密货币市场已彻底不再按旧规则出牌。
以下是核心要点：
🔹 巨头集中化。 流动性不再稀释。主要资本锁定在 BTC、ETH 和顶级代币中。根据场外交易（OTC）数据显示，山寨币在总流动性中的份额在两年内从 15% 下降到 12%。
🔹 机构主导规则。 通过 ETF 流入的资金都投向了经过验证的资产。大玩家变得更加谨慎：他们不再进行长期押注，而是根据新闻头条进行战术定位。
🔹 山寨币反弹“缩水”。 如果说 2024 年山寨币的平均反弹持续 61 天，那么 2025 年这个周期缩短到了 19 天。昙花一现。
🔹 新工具。 期权已成为投资组合管理的基础工具，而差价合约（CFD）则成为有效获取更广泛基础资产的主要方式。
这对我们意味着什么？
过去的周期模型不再适用。Wintermute 对散户大规模回归持怀疑态度，因为这可能拯救“垃圾币”（shitcoins）。现在，重要的是不仅要“相信项目”，还要关注流动性的路径。
资本要么留在市场的顶层，要么市场需要一个新的强大驱动力来突破 BTC 和 ETH 的限制。
#Wintermute #CryptoLiquidity #BTC #ETH #Altcoins

ПОЧЕМУ WINTERMUTE ПРОДАЕТ $VVV ПЕРЕД ФЕВРАЛЕМ? 🤔 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Напомним, что 10 февраля у $VVV запланировано сокращение эмиссии на 25%.

Казалось бы, это бычий фактор, но Wintermute разгружается уже сейчас, в январе 2026-го. Возможно, мы видим классическую схему «покупай на слухах, продавай на фактах» в действии.

Кит забирает ликвидность, пока она есть. Не станьте его «выходной ликвидностью»! 🧨📈 #VVV #Tokenomics #Wintermute #TradingStrategy

🚨 BREAKING:

Wintermute is pumping millions into $BTC ahead of Trump’s announcement 👀

Aggressive positioning hints at expectations of positive news

Traders watching closely as liquidity shifts and volatility builds

#BTC #Crypto #Wintermute #Markets

🚨 BREAKING:

Wintermute dumping millions in $BTC during low-liquidity hours 🕒

Yesterday pumping, today dumping — classic market whiplash

On-chain data showing aggressive distribution 👀

Volatility risk rising fast

#BTC #Crypto #Wintermute #Markets

🚨 BREAKING — WHALE DUMP ALERT 🚨

⚠️ MAJOR INSTITUTIONS ARE OFFLOADING BITCOIN

During low-liquidity hours, massive sell pressure hit the market:

• Binance: 10,398 $BTC
• Coinbase: 8,872 BTC
• Kraken: 4,172 BTC
• Wintermute: 2,647 BTC
• Unknown Whale: 4,945 BTC

➡️ Total: Over $3 BILLION in $BTC sold

📉 This wasn’t random selling.
⏰ Timing during thin liquidity amplified downside volatility.
🐳 Classic whale distribution while retail sleeps.
🎯 Price suppression + stop-loss hunting in action.

Smart money is repositioning. Retail needs to stay alert.
This is how markets shake out weak hands before the next major move.

👀 Watch liquidity. $BROCCOLI714
👀 Watch exchange flows.
👀 Don’t trade emotions.

#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoWhales #WhaleAlert #MarketManipulation
#CryptoNews #OnChainData #SmartMoney #Liquidity #CryptoMarket
#Binance #Coinbase #Kraken #Wintermute

矿企巨头MARA砸2630万BTC给做市商

链上数据实锤：MARA 9小时前向顶级做市商Wintermute转入288枚BTC（约2630万美元），转账来源已被Lookonchain和Arkham Intelligence确认。

要知道MARA常年储备BTC，类似转账2025年已多次出现，未必是砸盘，但当前BTC在9万刀震荡期，任何大额动向都揪着投资者的心。

#比特币 #MARA #Wintermute #加密货币新闻

🐳 Wintermute chuyển hơn 1,200 BTC lên Binance đầu năm

Dữ liệu on-chain cho thấy market maker Wintermute đã chuyển hơn 1,200 BTC lên Binance chỉ trong vài ngày đầu năm.

Đáng chú ý, các giao dịch diễn ra khi thanh khoản thị trường còn mỏng, thời điểm nhạy cảm dễ khuếch đại biến động giá.

Với vai trò market maker, động thái đưa BTC lên sàn thường mang hàm ý:

• chuẩn bị cung thanh khoản
• hoặc sẵn sàng phân phối trong ngắn hạn

Lịch sử cho thấy, dòng BTC lớn đổ lên CEX thường đi trước những nhịp rung lắc đáng kể.

Hiện chưa có dấu hiệu panic, nhưng đây là tín hiệu on-chain cần theo dõi sát trong những phiên đầu năm.

$BTC #Wintermute #Binance

BOOOOM! ❤️‍🔥 МАЛЬЧИКИ, ЭТО ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЙ ЗАГРУЗ! #WINTERMUTE ОТДЫХАЕТ! 🐋🌪️

Джеймс Винн открыл позиции, от которых у медведей дрожат коленки! 🐻🩸

Больше $7.7M в общей позиции! Вы понимаете, какой это масштаб? 💥

ЗАРАБАТЫВАЙТЕ, ПОКА ДАЮТ! $343,000 ПРОФИТА — ЭТО ТОЛЬКО НАЧАЛО ЕГО ПРИКЛЮЧЕНИЙ! 💋💰🔥
$BTC
$PEPE

МИЛЛИАРДЫ В ИГРЕ! #WINTERMUTE ПАМПИТ $BTC 😱😱😱😱😱✅️✅️✅️✅️‼️‼️‼️‼️

Маркетмейкеры решили закончить этот спор. Идет агрессивный набор позиции.

🐳 Они заливают ликвидность с одной целью — ТОТАЛЬНАЯ ЛИКВИДАЦИЯ ШОРТОВ. 📉❌

📈 Если вы в шорте — бегите! Если в лонге — держитесь крепче, ракета Wintermute выходит на орбиту! 🚀✨

ЭТО БУДЕТ САМЫЙ БЫСТРЫЙ ВЗЛЕТ В ИСТОРИИ 2026 ГОДА! 🥂🔥🦾

🚨 BREAKING

WHALES AND INSTITUTIONS ARE NON-STOP BUYING BILLIONS OF $BTC RIGHT NOW!

#Binance BOUGHT 5,539 BTC
#coinbase BOUGHT 4,119 BTC
#Wintermute BOUGHT 1,823 BTC
#Wintermute BOUGHT 1,823 BTC
#Satoshi WHALE BOUGHT 2,775 BTC
GALAXY DIGITAL BOUGHT 2,555 BTC

THIS IS HOW YOU KNOW THE BOTTOM IS IN 👀

🚨 BREAKING:

🇺🇸 #Wintermute IS URGENTLY BUYING MILLIONS OF $BTC AHEAD OF TRUMP'S CONFERENCE at 11am Today.🚀🚀

🙌THEY ARE PUMPING MILLIONS INTO BITCOIN ON BINANCE AN ON-CHAIN EVERY MINUTE💸

LOOKS LIKE THEY KNOW SOMETHING!! 👀
Best time to invest💯
$BULLA

#TRUMP #BTC

Movimentação de Bitcoin Envolvendo a Wintermute
Segundo informações da ChainCatcher, dados da plataforma Arkham mostram que, por volta das 15h20, aproximadamente 117 BTC foram enviados de múltiplos endereços não identificados para a carteira da Wintermute.

Transferência relevante e que merece atenção do mercado.

#BTC
#Onchain
#CryptoNews
#Wintermute
#blockchain
$BTC

🚨 حركة بيتكوين لافتة… والأنظار تتجه إلى Wintermute 🚨

في هدوءٍ تام،
وعند الساعة 15:20 تحديداً،
تم رصد انتقال 117 بيتكوين من عدة عناوين مجهولة
إلى شركة Wintermute،
أحد أكبر صُنّاع السوق في عالم الكريبتو.

💡 ما الذي يعنيه ذلك؟

خطوة محسوبة وليست عشوائية

سيولة تتحرّك بهدوء خلف الكواليس

إشارات قد تسبق تقلبات أو تحركات مهمة

🔍 في سوقٍ لا يتحرك فيه المال بلا سبب،
كل عملية تحويل بهذا الحجم
تطرح سؤالاً واحداً:
هل هناك شيء يُحضَّر؟

⚡ المتداول الذكي لا يتجاهل الإشارات
والعقل الواعي يراقب قبل أن يقرر

👇 ما رأيك في هذه الحركة؟
هل هي استعداد لمرحلة جديدة في السوق أم مجرد إدارة سيولة؟

💬 اكتب رأيك في التعليقات
🔁 شارك المنشور
❤️ ولا تنسَ الإعجاب إذا وجدت المعلومة مفيدة
$BTC


#bitcoin #CryptoNews #OnChainDataInsights #Wintermute #CryptoMarket

🚨 BREAKING: Wintermute CEO shuts down all the rumors! ❌
Amid the online buzz claiming that Wintermute was planning to sue Binance, the CEO has set the record straight —

“Literally no plans to sue Binance, nor see any reason to do it in the future.”

So yeah, turns out the drama was just noise. 😅
No lawsuit, no bad blood — just business as usual between two major players in the crypto world. ⚡
#Binance #Wintermute #CryptoNews #FUD #Write2Earn

🚀 Wintermute CEO Addresses Market Criticism & Transparency in Crypto

📢 Evgeny Gaevoy, CEO of Wintermute, has responded to recent claims about the firm’s role in the crypto market. Founded in 2017, Wintermute is a major algorithmic trading firm operating in DeFi, CeFi, and OTC markets, ensuring liquidity and efficiency.

💡 Key Takeaways from Gaevoy’s Statement:

🔹 No Price Manipulation – Gaevoy denied allegations, attributing market drops to macroeconomic factors like the DeepSeek event and tariff policies affecting global finance.

🔹 Risk Management Strategy – Wintermute follows a delta-neutral trading model, reducing exposure to market swings while maintaining 20-30% crypto holdings since 2020.

🔹 Transparency Matters – He called for clearer token market-making agreements and dismissed claims of coordinated price actions with exchanges like Binance.

🔹 Recent Arbitrage Profits – Wintermute seized an opportunity by moving $75M in FDUSD, securing an estimated $3M profit during the recent depeg.

🔥 Is algorithmic trading good or bad for the crypto market? Drop your thoughts below! ⬇️

#CryptoNews #Wintermute #DeFi #CeFi #CryptoTrading

Since $FDUSD depegged, #Wintermute has transferred 75M $FDUSD to First Digital Labs.

They likely bought $FDUSD at a discount during the depeg and redeemed it 1:1 through First Digital—making a solid profit.

$COW You are the exit liquidity of #Wintermute The team is selling. Besides, they unblock roughly $81.05K everyday onto the market.

$FDUSD Depeg Drama: How Wintermute Turned a Dip into Millions in Minutes

After some bankruptcy news, #FDUSD briefly depegged to $0.8726

Soon after, #Wintermute withdrew 38.91 million FDUSD from #Binance
Not long after that, they sent 29.7 million FDUSD to another wallet:
0x06aDaac796f792B6E2EcfA5a6Bf9B345B76c7D70

👉 If they bought it around $0.90 and it went back to $1, that’s a profit of over $3.3 million.

$BTC