#S&P500
#stock 📉 S&P 500: Concentration at the limit. Why the crypto market should prepare?
The situation on the US stock market at the end of February 2026 resembles a tightrope walk. Only 10 companies hold about 37-41% of the entire value of the S&P 500 index. When the "ten" sneezes, the whole world runs a fever, and Bitcoin is no exception.
🔍 What's happening in the numbers?
• Dominance: At the end of 2025, the concentration of the top 10 peaked at 41%. Now it has "bloated" a little to 37.3%.
• Nvidia phenomenon: Only one company occupies 7.37% of the entire index.
• Gap: The market capitalization of the largest company is 700 times higher than the 75th percentile. This is an anomaly that engineers usually mark with a red marker.
🚀 Three scenarios for the outcome
Goldman Sachs experts and analysts identify three paths the market can take:
1. Catch-up: The leaders stand still, while the remaining 490 companies grow. This is the healthiest option, signs of which we see now (the balanced S&P beats the capitalized one).
2. Catch-down: If Big Tech starts to fall, the index will automatically follow them. A 20% drop in the top 10 means an instant 7.5% drop in the entire S&P.
3. Rally restart: The giants continue to report excess profits, and concentration is growing again.
🟠 What's the point of Bitcoin here?
Despite the narratives about "digital gold", BTC remains hostage to macroeconomics:
• Correlation: In times of stress, Bitcoin's correlation with US stocks jumps to 0.4 - 0.6.
• Risky asset: If a "collapse scenario" (Catch-down) begins, the crypto market will feel it first as investors exit risk positions (deleveraging).
• Positive: If the market expands (Catch-up), the inflow of liquidity into mid-cap companies often flows into crypto assets.
💡 Conclusion
We are watching how the "wrapping film" of the S&P 500 index begins to weaken. This is either an opportunity for market recovery, or a harbinger of a major storm.