Tuesday afternoon (Feb 25, 2026), the precious metals market got hit with something that didn’t just look like a “system error” — it felt strategic.
CME Group — operator of Globex — abruptly halted trading across all metals and natural gas. Gas came back after 35 minutes. But gold, silver, and copper? Offline for a full 90 minutes.
And here’s where it gets interesting.
1️⃣ The Timing Is Almost Too Perfect
This wasn’t random.
Feb 25, 2026 outage → Just 2 days before First Notice Day for March silver.November 2025 outage → 10-hour shutdown exactly on First Notice Day for December silver.
Both disruptions occurred at the most sensitive point of the delivery cycle.
And both times?
Silver $XAG was pushing major psychological breakout levels — including the $90 zone.
When trading halts:
Stop orders vanish.Good-Till-Date breakout triggers get wiped.Shorts under pressure get breathing room.
If you’re massively short into a delivery squeeze, 90 minutes of silence is a gift.
Coincidence? Twice?
2️⃣ COMEX Inventory: The Red Alert Zone
The physical numbers tell a much darker story.
At COMEX vaults:
Registered silver: ~87–88 million ounces (as of Feb 20, 2026)Down from 346 million ounces in 2020A 75% collapse in just six years
Even more disturbing:
For every 1 ounce of physical silver, there are roughly 73 ounces of paper claims.
That’s not price discovery.
That’s leverage stacked on leverage.
3️⃣ This Isn’t Retail. This Is Institutional Hunger.
Unlike the 2021 Reddit-driven squeeze, this 2026 move is institutional.
Wells Fargo issued 228 delivery notices in a single session.Jane Street became the largest shareholder of iShares Silver Trust (SLV) after adding 20.6M+ shares late 2025.For the first time in recent history, major U.S. commercial banks flipped to net long.
Read that again.
The entities historically known for suppressing silver are now positioning long.
Because at current prices, physical shortages cannot be resolved.
4️⃣ The East–West Pricing Fracture
Two worlds. Two silver prices.
Shanghai: ~ $100/ozChicago (COMEX): ~ $86/oz
A 12–16% premium.
China has declared silver a strategic resource and tightened exports.
Meanwhile, London silver $XAG lease rates have spiked toward 40% — a classic sign of acute physical stress.
The conclusion?
COMEX may be pricing promises.
Shanghai is pricing metal.
The Verdict Is Approaching
First Notice Day (Feb 27, 2026) is the stress test.
If delivery demands exceed available registered supply, we don’t get volatility.
We get repricing.
And if another “technical issue” happens during breakout conditions?
It won’t feel accidental anymore.
Silver $XAG isn’t broken.
It’s constrained.
And constraints eventually snap.
🔔 Insight. Signal. Alpha.
Hit follow if you don’t want to miss the next move!
*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
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