TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: Since September 2025, I have been sharing my outlook and expectations for Bitcoin and how things would unfold over the coming months. At the short entry of 115–125K, I first gave a target of 100K, which was reached just a few weeks after my prediction. After that, I clearly stated that a sideways move would follow before a drop to 60K. Back then, this was hard to believe, yet it played out exactly as expected a few weeks later. At 60K, I said we would enter a sideways range, with a box between 57K–87K. Bitcoin recently moved up to 76K, and just a few days later dropped sharply back to 68K. Is this the bullish trap I have been talking about? Yes, it is one of the traps in this region before continuation to the downside.
My strategy is very simple. I sold the Bitcoin I bought two weeks ago in the 68K region and I am only holding my larger short from 115–125K. I am willing to add more shorts in the 79–84K region with x5 leverage, and these orders are already placed. We are in a big bear market scenario, not only for Bitcoin but also for the overall stock market. Back in September, I pointed out significant liquidity stress in the repo market, as well as the increasing RISKS on the Fed’s standing repo facility. In addition, we are seeing ongoing manipulation in silver and gold markets, where futures prices are becoming increasingly disconnected from physical supply, which continues to be drained. Oil prices are rising, aligning with the analysis I shared two months ago when I entered Chevron, currently one of the biggest winners from these developments. AI and data-related stocks are heavily overinvested and overbought. I shorted these sectors, and the positions were shared in premium back in November. Many of them are already down 30–40%, including stocks like PLTR, MSFT, and Coinbase. All my short positions are currently in profit. I am short Bitcoin, stocks (especially AI-focused), and indices in the UK, Germany, and Japan.
What am I bullish on? Only a few assets: Chevron stock, physical metals, and Oil. I am also holding a long on oil, which I shared two weeks ago in premium at an entry of $84. That is my current portfolio positioning. I expect the bear market to dominate most assets while only a few selected ones remain strong. Bitcoin is currently in a weak position and lacks clear direction, which explains the ongoing sideways movement. However, the next major move is still likely to the downside. Market makers are attempting to push the price higher to capture liquidity above, before driving it lower. At the same time, based on current data, they appear more cautious due to the macro and geopolitical environment which is also for them a high risk to make any big moves for now.
For this reason, I have slightly adjusted my short entry zone to 79–84K, where my orders are now placed. Until then, I continue holding my core short from 115–125K. A few days ago, I mentioned XRP. I entered a position, and it moved 16% higher shortly after. However, I took profits and publicly shared that I closed the trade with around 5% gain. The reason is simple, the risk-reward is no longer as attractive as it was a few weeks ago, and this with considering the potential for a broader Bitcoin move. This is also why I am no longer holding spot positions in Bitcoin. The next major downside move is only a matter of time. I am not ruling out another fake move before that happens, and if we do see it, I will use it to add further short positions, but overall we are heading to TARGET 3 which is showed on the chart.$BTC
$SIREN
