ratecut

今日下された驚くべき6-3の決定において、アメリカ合衆国最高裁判所は、国際緊急経済権限法（IEEPA）に基づいて課されたトランプ大統領の広範なグローバル関税は違法であると裁定しました。この裁定は、行政部門から主要な貿易兵器を剥奪し、連邦政府に巨額の返済請求書を残します。すでにこれらの関税の下で約1500億ドルを支払った米国企業や輸入業者は、今やそのお金を取り戻す権利があるかもしれません。
しかし、これが企業や広範な経済、そして行政の貿易政策にとって具体的に何を意味するのでしょうか？分解してみましょう。

🇺🇸 連邦準備制度は、今日午後2時（ET）に利下げを発表する見込みです。
99.9%近くの確率で、大きな流動性の波が迫っています。今の重要な焦点は—パウエルの口調です。市場はハト派的なメッセージを求めています。📉➡️📈
#FED #RateCut #Macro #CryptoNews #Powell $TRU

$BTC
In this post, let’s break down how rate cuts and other big macro events price in before they happen — and how you can position smartly to stay ahead of the move. 👇
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🔹 Why Price Dips After “Good News”?
If we all expect a rate cut and it actually happens… why does the market still dump?
Example — September 17th, 25bps cut. Everyone was hyped, yet price fell.
👉 Reason: It was already priced in.
Markets usually pump 1–2 weeks before the expected event — then sell off once it’s confirmed.
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🔹 Market Reaction Scenarios
Event Reaction Reason
No Change 🔴 Hard Dump Expectations missed
25bps Cut 🔴 Dump Already priced in
50bps Cut 🟢 Pump Unexpected surprise
When a bullish event is expected, it’s often already in the charts before the announcement.
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🔹 Expected vs Unexpected
Expected Events (Rate cuts, CPI, halving): price in before the event.
Unexpected Events (War, hacks, policy shifts): market reacts instantly.
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🔹 How to Position 💼
1️⃣ Start preparing 1–2 weeks early.
2️⃣ Check forecasts & Polymarket odds (majority bet = most likely).
3️⃣ If it plays out as expected → close position.
4️⃣ If something unexpected happens → hold/add.
5️⃣ If “no change” when a cut was expected → flip short.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your own research.
💭 What’s your take? How do you position before FOMC events? Drop your thoughts below 👇
#Macro #fomc #RateCut #cryptotrading #Marketpsychology