bitcoinmarket

My view hasn’t changed.
Bitcoin today is operating from a much stronger foundation than it was at the 2022 lows. The network, participants, and capital behind it have all evolved. This isn’t a rewind — it’s a progression. History doesn’t copy-paste, but the rhythm feels familiar.

So far, the nightmare scenarios haven’t played out.

Despite tariff headlines and ongoing macro pressure, BTC absorbed the noise. I was watching closely for a decisive break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement after that news. Instead, price respected the zone and stabilized around the $67K–$68K area with limited downside follow-through.

That matters.

The structure today is fundamentally different from 2022.

Back then, price was inflated by excess retail leverage. When that leverage unwound, the downside was violent. This cycle looks nothing like that. The market is now supported by institutions, long-term holders, ETFs, and even sovereign-level interest. That shifts how risk is distributed.

Supply dynamics also tell a different story.

Bitcoin held on exchanges is meaningfully lower than during the last bear market. Even with ETF outflows grabbing attention, overall supply continues to tighten. Those outflows are minor when compared to cumulative inflows and total assets under management across institutional products.

On the network side, hash rate remains near record levels. Mining difficulty is high. Security and commitment to the chain are stronger than ever. Structural support is higher.

This isn’t a call for blind aggression.

Stay disciplined. Continue DCA where appropriate.

If fear escalates, a brief liquidity sweep slightly below the 61.8% level wouldn’t shock me. I’d rather not see it — but even if it happens, it would likely be a temporary shakeout, not a breakdown of the broader trend.

Net view remains unchanged: bullish.

Long-term, my 2026 Bitcoin target remains $400K+.
Follow for continued market updates and real-time structure reads.

#BTCUSDT #BitcoinMarket #CryptoStructure #MacroNoise