aave

The following professional technical analysis evaluates Aave ($AAVE ) as of February 2026, incorporating multi-timeframe structural shifts, momentum indicators, and liquidity mapping.
1. Market Structure Analysis
1D (Macro): Bearish Control. The daily timeframe is dominated by a clear sequence of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) originating from the $160+ resistance in Q4 2025. A significant macro bottom was established at **$92.25** in early February. While a recovery is underway, the structure remains bearish until a daily candle closes above the $130.00 pivot.
4H (Medium-Term): Bullish Reversal Attempt. Price has printed a set of Higher Lows ($106.85 → $111.99). This suggests a transition from a vertical sell-off to a trending recovery.
1H (Short-Term): Consolidation. Currently oscillating around the $118.00 psychological level. A failure to hold this level would signal a retest of the $112.00 support.
2. Technical Indicators & Momentum
200-Day EMA: Currently trending around $140.00 (sloping downward). As long as AAVE remains below this level, the overall trend bias is Bearish. A touch of the 200 EMA would likely act as a high-probability "sell the rip" zone for swing traders.
RSI (14) Assessment:
Daily: 42.23 (Neutral-Bearish). The RSI has recovered from oversold territory (<30) but remains below the 50-median line, indicating that bulls do not yet have control.
Divergence: A Hidden Bullish Divergence is forming on the 4H timeframe; price is making higher lows while the RSI makes lower lows, often a precursor to a volatile move upward.
Liquidity Mapping: Significant sell-side liquidity (SSL) sits just below $110.00. Institutional "stop-hunts" are likely in this area to flush out retail longs before a sustained rally to $130. Buy-side liquidity (BSL) is concentrated above $132.00.
4. Correlation & Volume Profile
BTC Correlation: AAVE maintains a 0.84 correlation with Bitcoin. Any analysis is contingent on BTC holding the $65,000 support. If BTC drops below $63k, AAVE’s structural supports ($112) are likely to fail regardless of internal fundamentals.
Volume Analysis: The recent bounce from $92 was accompanied by declining volume, a characteristic of a "dead cat bounce" or low-conviction recovery. A high-volume breakout (> $400M daily) at $130 is required for trend confirmation.
5. Probabilistic Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Trend Reversal)
Condition: AAVE sweeps liquidity at $110, followed by a strong 4H close back above $118.
Primary Target: $130.00 (Initial), $145.00 (200 EMA).
Invalidation: A daily close below $102.35.
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Trend Continuation)
Condition: Rejection at the $125 supply zone with a loss of the $118 pivot.
Primary Target: Retest of $92.25, with potential extension to $75.00 (Extreme Support).
Invalidation: A daily close above $130.00.
Outlook Summary
Short-Term (1–2 Weeks): Neutral-Bullish. Expect a "shakeout" toward $110 followed by a move to test the $128–$130 resistance zone.
Mid-Term (1–3 Months): Neutral-Bearish. AAVE remains in a macro downtrend. Until the $140 (200 EMA) is reclaimed and flipped to support, every rally should be treated as a potential exit opportunity for long-term holders.
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Disclaimer: These articles are just only a prediction about the coin according to the latest trends and past history. Trade at your own risk.