Global markets are adjusting to a major shift in the macro landscape. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has surged to 2.26%, the highest level since 1999, while US 10-year Treasuries are trading around 4.28%, the highest since October 2025. These moves signal that markets are pricing in tighter monetary policy from both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve, alongside weakening demand for government debt.
This change matters because safe assets are paying more again. When bonds offer attractive, relatively low-risk returns, capital naturally rotates away from high-risk assets like crypto and equities. We’re already seeing this shift play out, with money flowing out of speculative markets and into yield-bearing instruments.
At the same time, policy divergence is strengthening the USD/JPY, adding further pressure on global liquidity. A stronger dollar environment is typically unfavorable for BTC and ETH, as tighter financial conditions reduce risk appetite and leverage across markets. Crypto thrives on excess liquidity — and right now, liquidity is being pulled back.
Interestingly, investors looking for a hedge are not rushing into crypto. Instead, gold is drawing attention near the $4,960 level, reinforcing its role as a traditional store of value during periods of tightening and uncertainty. This suggests that, in the current environment, gold is being viewed as a safer hedge than digital assets.
The message from markets is clear: yields matter again. As bonds regain appeal, risk assets face headwinds. Until monetary policy expectations ease or liquidity conditions improve, caution remains the dominant theme.
Macro is in control — trade accordingly. #MarketRally $BTC
