#BTC100kNext FOMC today. What to expect
$BTC Quick pre-fire thoughts on what we’re likely to hear in the statement, from Powell, and how markets may react.
Pause is a lock. After three cuts from September to December, a wait and see stance is pure consensus.
Labor market has cooled without panic. Some wage components still point higher, which keeps inflation sticky.Part of the cooling can be linked to ICE migration raids and the closed southern border.
Core message stays the same. Growth is moderate, labor has cooled, inflation is still above target.
What may change is the balance of risks. In Sep Oct Dec, downside labor risks were heavily emphasized. Now, with unemployment already priced in, the Committee can move back toward a neutral framing. Risks look more two-sided and the Fed will carefully assess incoming data. Less labor insurance, more balanced focus on inflation and jobs.
Base case is a slightly hawkish hold. Powell leans against expanding easing expectations. USD gets some support.
For
$BTC , this usually looks like a local short or capped upside for 24 to 48 hours. After that, DXY and yields take over.
Main thing to watch is how he sells the pause.
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