$BTC | Weekly Open Update
New weekly open. After weeks of tight compression, BTC finally pushed through the 90K resistance. At the same time, we’re starting to see a gradual shift in orderbook sentiment. Longs are becoming more dominant, and from the looks of it, many appear to be entering late positions.
Most importantly, a CME gap has formed at 90.1K. As I’ve mentioned many times before, roughly 98% of weekend CME gaps are filled within the first week. Larger gaps can take longer, sometimes weeks or even months, such as the 74K gap. However, that was a different scenario: a true breakaway gap signaling trend continuation, which aligned with prior cycle behavior.
The current gap is also technically a breakaway gap, but the broader context is different. The trend remains bearish and price is still range bound, which significantly increases the probability of this gap being filled in a relatively short timeframe.
My estimate is that this gap is filled within no more than two weeks. On top of that, we’re pushing higher into a fresh weekly open and into Monday, an environment where historically, strong pumps tend to get retraced. From a risk perspective, the math points toward caution with the possibility of late longs being hunted at some point.
CPI is scheduled for the 13th. While I’ve previously discussed the development of a bullish narrative, and we are seeing that form, I don’t expect price to move in a straight line higher for the next 8 days. A more likely scenario is a choppy, sideways range.
You can see from structure alone, 90K is actually a strong S/R flip which technically would be a bullish retest before sweeping above towards the higher spectrum of the range.
🚨 Just hours before Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured, three wallets on Polymarket placed large bets on his removal.
They earned a total of $630,484!
One of these wallets alone generated a profit of over $400,000!
These wallets were created a few days earlier, activated just before the event, and exclusively bet on these events related to Venezuela and Maduro...
🗞 Lookonchain
BREAKING: US federal debt is up to a record $38.5 trillion in 2025.
The national debt officially surged +$2.3 trillion last year, equal to +$6.3 BILLION per day.
At this pace, total US debt will rise to $40.0 trillion as early as August.
Since 2020, US debt has skyrocketed by +$15.3 trillion, posting a +$2.6 trillion average annual increase.
This means US federal debt now stands at $285,733 per household.
The US debt crisis is accelerating.
$BTC
🎂 Bitcoin celebrates its 17th birthday
On January 3, 2009, Bitcoin's genesis block was mined, marking the birth of the first cryptocurrency.
Satoshi Nakamoto left a clear message:
"Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks," a direct criticism of bank bailouts after the 2008 crisis.
At the time, the reward was 50 $BTC , which was worthless.
Today, #Bitcoin is trading at around $90,000 and is one of the world's eight largest assets.
From an experiment to a global asset.
🚨 Un signal rare vient d’apparaître sur $BTC et il passe largement sous le radar.
Au cours des 30 derniers jours, les portefeuilles majeurs ont accumulé environ 270 000 BTC, soit près de 23 milliards de dollars aux prix actuels.
Ce chiffre n’est pas anodin.
Il représente 1,3 % de l’offre totale de Bitcoin, et surtout la plus forte accumulation nette observée chez les grands détenteurs depuis 13 ans.
Ce qui rend ce mouvement intéressant, ce n’est pas seulement son ampleur, mais son timing.
Les données historiques montrent que ce type d’accumulation massive apparaît rarement lors des sommets euphoriques.
Elle se manifeste plutôt dans des phases de doute, lorsque l’attention du marché est ailleurs et que le sentiment général reste hésitant.
Il ne s’agit pas d’un pari de court terme.
Cela ne signifie pas que Bitcoin va s’envoler demain.
Mais cela indique clairement que les acteurs disposant des horizons d’investissement les plus longs sont en train de renforcer leurs positions, pendant que la majorité se focalise sur des mouvements secondaires.
Lorsque je jugerai à nouveau pertinent d’accumuler du BTC, je le signalerai publiquement ici.
À chacun ensuite de décider s’il préfère observer… ou agir.
$BTC