$BB 4h Eyes Resistance as Bears Poise for a Possible Drop
Price action feels stuck in neutral territory, caught between key resistance overhead and solid support below a classic setup for a decisive move.
The trend leans bearish overall, but #BB is currently testing resistance near 0.086–0.0873, with a stronger barrier around 0.0914. Support clusters at approximately 0.0798, while a deeper demand zone lies near 0.074–0.0707. Without a clear breakout above resistance, sellers may drive price back toward those support levels. The base expectation favors a rejection and decline unless $BB convincingly breaks above 0.0914, which would shift momentum bullish. This setup calls for close attention to reversal signals at resistance.
Market Outlook: $TRUMP 4h Correction in Focus
#TRUMP is navigating a corrective phase amid bearish momentum, with mixed indicator signals suggesting caution ahead. Resistance near 6.10 to 6.15 caps upside, while support lies around 5.85 to 5.60.
A short-term decline toward the 5.85 support zone appears plausible, particularly if bearish price action confirms below 5.97. Conversely, a reversal could emerge if price rejects below 5.60 and rebounds swiftly, potentially targeting resistance near 6.10. A decisive break above 6.15 would shift the outlook bullish toward higher levels near 6.33. Traders should await clear confirmations before positioning.
THE GREAT ABSORPTION
CryptoQuant just declared bear market. Bull Score at zero. Strategy purchases collapsed 93%.
They are looking at the wrong variable.
Strategy bought 134,480 BTC in November 2024. Just 9,100 in November 2025. The crowd sees bearish conviction.
The math reveals something else entirely.
Strategy’s mNAV collapsed from 3.4x to 0.86x. Below 2.5x, equity issuance becomes dilutive. They cannot buy accretively. This is not strategy. This is algebra.
The premium disappeared because ETFs made it unnecessary.
$57.7 billion absorbed by spot ETFs in eleven months. BlackRock holds around 570,000 BTC. The proxy era ended. Capital migrated from leveraged equity wrappers to direct spot exposure.
While retail panicked, institutions accumulated.
Harvard tripled IBIT to $443 million. Norway’s sovereign fund increased Bitcoin exposure 83%. Abu Dhabi sovereign entities added $500 million. The United States established a permanent Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
The on-chain verdict is unambiguous.
MVRV at 2.26. Historical tops printed above 7. Supply in profit at 71%. Tops require 95%. Exchange reserves at six-year lows. Puell Multiple at 1.0. Overheated readings exceed 3.4.
Every indicator that called 2013, 2017, and 2021 tops is silent.
Global M2 just hit $123.3 trillion. The Fed ended QT December 1. Rate cuts are coming.
The four-year cycle did not top.
It was absorbed by an investor class that does not operate on four-year timeframes. The 80% crashes required the absence of a permanent institutional bid. That bid now exists.
This is not a market event.
This is a monetary phase transition.
The cycle is dead. The absorption is permanent.
$BTC
WINDSOR DOCTRINE: THE NIGHT EUROPE CHANGED
A royal banquet just rewrote the global security order.
King Charles, standing beside Germany’s President Steinmeier at the first German state visit in 27 years, declared what no British monarch has said in generations:
“The United Kingdom and Germany together stand with Ukraine and bolster Europe against the threat of further Russian aggression.”
Hours earlier, Putin warned he was “ready right now” for war with Europe. The UK called it “sabre-rattling.”
Charles responded with steel, not silence.
THE NUMBERS THEY DO NOT WANT YOU TO SEE:
The German-British Bridging Battalion at Minden: 1,200 soldiers. Two militaries fused into one unit. The only binational NATO formation of its kind in Europe.
Germany’s defense surge: €108.2 billion budget for 2026. Target: 3.5% of GDP by 2029.
Combined UK-Germany Ukraine commitment: €21 billion pledged in April alone. Germany: €11 billion through 2029. UK: £4.5 billion for 2025.
Trinity House Agreement: Signed October 2024. First-ever UK-Germany defense pact across all domains.
THE STRATEGIC REALITY:
Putin has massed 170,000 troops at Pokrovsk. Europe’s two largest defense spenders just announced they are merging military capabilities.
This is not diplomacy. This is architecture.
While Moscow watches for cracks in Western unity, London and Berlin are welding the seams shut.
Steinmeier’s words echoed through Windsor’s halls: “Side by side for a free, peaceful Europe. Side by side in support of Ukraine.”
Crystal glasses clinked. But the real sound was the closing of ranks.
THE WINDSOR DOCTRINE IS NOW ACTIVE.
Europe is not waiting for permission. It is preparing for permanence.
The question is no longer whether the West will hold.
The question is whether Moscow calculated correctly.
$BTC
🤔🥺🌹 DAC8
Imagine que tu as une tirelire magique où tu mets des pièces spéciales qu’on appelle des cryptos 💰. Avant, personne ne savait vraiment combien tu avais mis dans cette tirelire magique. Maintenant, l’Union Européenne a créé une nouvelle règle qui s’appelle DAC8.
🎀 Et DAC8, ça fait quoi ?
DAC8 dit simplement : “Si tu utilises une plateforme (une appli) pour acheter ou vendre des cryptos, la plateforme doit dire au pays où tu habites ce que tu as fait.”
C’est comme si ta maîtresse disait : “Si tu donnes des bonbons à la cantine et que tu en reçois, la cantine doit me le dire.”
🎒 Et toi, qu’est-ce que tu dois faire ?
Presque rien.
Les infos sont envoyées automatiquement au pays. Toi, tu n’as rien à faire de spécial.
Si tu gardes toi-même tes cryptos dans ta propre petite bourse (ton wallet perso) alors personne ne voit ce que tu fais à l’intérieur de ta tirelire mais si un jour tu gagnes de l’argent en les revendant, il faut juste le dire dans ta déclaration.
C’est comme si tu avais une tirelire chez toi :
➡️ Personne ne regarde dedans,
➡️ mais si tu la vides et que tu achètes un vélo avec les pièces, tes parents doivent le savoir.
🧸 Le plus important à retenir
DAC8 "ne t’espionne pas", "ne prend pas ton argent", "demande juste aux applis de racconter ce que tu fais quand tu achètes ou vends des cryptos".
"Toi, tu dois juste être honnête si tu gagnes de l’argent."
"Pas de panique, pas de danger, rien de grave.
C’est juste une règle pour que tout soit transparent."
Bienveillament ✨️,
#PATRICIABM 🌹💔💫
THEY TOLD YOU ALTSEASON IS DEAD
They are asking the wrong question.
The crypto market you knew no longer exists.
In 2025, it quietly split into two completely separate games. Different rules. Different players. Different winners.
And almost no one noticed.
GAME ONE: INSTITUTIONAL CRYPTO
Bitcoin. Ethereum. ETF assets. Quarterly cycles. Pension funds and advisors setting prices. Volatility crushed from 84% to 43%. Time horizon: months.
GAME TWO: ATTENTION CRYPTO
37 million tokens. 36,000 new ones launching daily. 98.6% collapse below $1,000 liquidity. 75% dead within 24 hours. Survival rate: 1.4%. Time horizon: hours.
Here is what should terrify you:
Major altcoin/BTC ratios have returned to December 2020 levels.
Five years of building. Partnerships. Ecosystems. Narratives.
Zero progress against Bitcoin.
The transparency paradox destroyed everything. When every wallet, every transaction, every accumulation is visible instantly, information edge vanishes. Only speed remains. Milliseconds, not conviction. Algorithms, not analysis.
Capital no longer rotates from Bitcoin to alts.
It flows directly to whichever game the mandate specifies.
Traditional altseason probability: 10 to 15 percent.
Not because speculation died.
Because the unified market that altseason required has been structurally dismantled.
Your only choices now:
Play Institutional Crypto with patience and macro awareness.
Or play Attention Crypto with speed and infrastructure.
The middle ground, holding altcoins on thesis for months, is now the worst possible strategy.
You are not early to altseason.
You are waiting for a market structure that no longer exists.
$BTC
#BTCVSGOLD
This is wild:
The S&P 500 excluding AI names has gained +25% since the launch of ChatGPT on November 30th, 2022.
This translates to a +8% compounded annual return (CAGR) over this period.
By comparison, the S&P 500 as a whole, including AI names, has surged +73%, which equals a +20% CAGR.
Put simply, without AI stocks, market performance would have been at least 2.5 TIMES weaker.
Technology stocks are the engine of global markets.
$BTC
BREAKING: US initial jobless claims data came in at 191,000
Expectations: 220,000
Yesterday, ADP private payrolls data fell to -32K, which is the largest drop since March 2023.
So despite initial jobless claims data coming lower than expected, the overall labor market is still very weak.
This means Fed will have to do more rate cuts, which is good for markets.
$BTC
🧨 The latest Bitcoin drop wasn’t “just another correction.”
It was a clear capitulation event.
And you can prove it by looking at three signals that rarely show up together:
1️⃣ Hash Rate plunged over 30 days
Miners shutting down machines = real pressure on the ecosystem.
When miners start bleeding, it usually means the market is hitting its limit.
2️⃣ Price drawdown hit extreme levels
A fast, violent drop way outside the historical median.
This isn’t a technical move… it’s pain. It’s forced selling. It’s liquidation.
3️⃣ Active supply spiked
People who usually hold BTC for months (or years) started spending their coins.
This behavior only appears when sentiment breaks.
When these three signals flash at the same time, the Capitulation Oscillator shoots up and that almost always marks the final phase of a downtrend or a flattening phase like we saw in 2021.
It’s not a guarantee of an immediate bottom, of course.
But historically, moments like this are rare… and often open opportunities that only show up once or twice per cycle.
If you follow on-chain data, you know exactly what this means.
$BTC
US small business employment is collapsing:
US small firms cut -120,000 jobs in November, the most since May 2020, according to the ADP Employment Report.
Companies with 1–19 employees cut -46,000 jobs, while those with 20–49 employees cut -74,000 jobs.
This also marks the 6th monthly decline over the last 7 months.
During this period, employment at small firms has dropped -264,000.
As a result, the 3-month average dropped to -59,333, the weakest reading since the 2020 pandemic.
More rate cuts are coming.
$BTC
THE FALL
December 1, 2025: Sam Altman declares Code Red at OpenAI.
Three years after triggering the same alarm at Google, the hunter became the hunted.
The numbers tell the story no one wants to hear:
Gemini 3 GPQA Diamond: 91.9%
GPT-5: 85.7%
Humanity’s Last Exam:
Gemini: 37.5%
GPT-5: 24.8%
The king no longer wears the crown.
But here is what the headlines miss:
OpenAI commands 800 million weekly users. 81% of the chatbot market. $13 billion in revenue. 92% of Fortune 500 companies.
This is not collapse.
This is something far more profound.
The unipolar moment in artificial intelligence has ended.
For three years, one organization shaped how machine intelligence would integrate into human civilization. That window has closed.
What emerges now: a multipolar landscape where Google, Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek, and xAI each command fragments of what OpenAI once held alone.
The implications reshape everything:
First AI Era: Best model wins.
Second AI Era: Infrastructure ownership, distribution reach, and reliability determine who captures value. Capability becomes necessary but not sufficient.
DeepSeek proved frontier AI no longer requires American infrastructure. Export controls failed. The $1.4 trillion OpenAI committed to compute partners flows to infrastructure owners. The surplus capture happens elsewhere.
Churchill, 1942: “This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
OpenAI’s Code Red marks precisely this: the end of AI’s beginning.
The cathedral’s lights are not going out.
They are being joined by other lights.
Watch Q1 2026.
The future of intelligence will not be shaped by a single organization’s values, decisions, or constraints.
It will emerge from competitive dynamics among actors with divergent incentives.
For better or worse, that future starts now.
$BTC
THE SIGN
At $11,000 they said do not enter.
At $30,000 they said do not enter.
At $60,000 they said do not enter.
At $100,000 they said do not enter.
At $93,000, they made it law.
January 15, 2026: MSCI votes whether to exile the largest corporate Bitcoin holder from global indices. The trigger: $8.8 billion in automatic selling. Not because managers decide. Because algorithms require.
The numbers Wall Street cannot classify:
650,000 BTC. One treasury.
$60 billion in holdings.
$51 billion in market cap.
For the first time in history, a public company trades below the value of its own vault. You can purchase $1.17 of Bitcoin for $1.00 through equity.
Their arsenal:
95% margin requirements.
$2.5 billion in short profits booked.
Index exile pending.
His response:
$1.44 billion cash reserve.
Zero Bitcoin sold in five years.
Zero covenants breached.
$4.2 billion program to acquire more.
3.1% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist. One holder. One direction. Five years. Not one satoshi returned to fiat.
Here is what no index can measure:
The man holding 650,000 Bitcoin at $74,433 average does not require permission from indices holding zero.
They are not protecting investors from risk.
They are protecting categories from irrelevance.
The sign says do not enter.
But 650,000 Bitcoin never asked where the door was.
Orange is not entering.
Orange is the room.
$BTC
The narrative is seductive. The data tells a different story.
Q3 2025: BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan sold $5.38 billion in MSTR shares.
Same quarter: BlackRock’s IBIT absorbed $4.2 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows. JPMorgan launched IBIT structured notes with 1.5x leverage. Goldman began Bitcoin collateral lending.
This is not a synchronized attack.
This is a synchronized rotation.
From the proxy to the asset. From the wrapper to the underlying. From Saylor’s balance sheet to their own fee structures.
MSCI’s 50% threshold existed before Strategy crossed it. The rules did not change. Strategy’s asset composition did. mNAV at 0.863 is arithmetic, not conspiracy.
The harder truth:
Wall Street is not trying to kill Bitcoin. Wall Street is trying to own Bitcoin’s infrastructure while retail fights over narratives.
Every dollar that exits MSTR flows toward products where BlackRock, Fidelity, and JPMorgan collect basis points in perpetuity.
The “diamond hands” transfer is real. But the diamonds are not flowing from institutions to believers.
They are flowing from believers to institutions, who now custody $60.8 billion in spot ETFs, who now provide prime brokerage, who now structure the derivatives.
The war is not two-front.
The war is over.
Wall Street won by building the rails everyone must use.
MSTR’s mNAV tells you who absorbed the cost of that victory.
The asset survives. The proxy pays the toll.
$BTC