🚨 BREAKING: THE GOVERNMENT WILL SHUT DOWN IN 6 DAYS?
The last time they shut down, gold and silver jumped to new all-time highs.
But if you’re holding other assets like stocks, you need to be extremely careful…
Because we’re heading into a total data blackout.
Here are the 4 specific threats:
– The Data: No CPI or jobs reports leaves the Fed and risk models unable to see what’s going on. Volatility (VIX) must reprice higher to account for the uncertainty.
– Collateral Shock: With previous credit warnings, a shutdown could trigger a downgrade. This would spike repo margins and destroy liquidity.
– Liquidity Freeze: The RRP buffer is dry. There's no safety net left. If dealers start hoarding cash, the funding markets seize up.
– Recession Trigger: The economy loses ~0.2% GDP per week of shutdown, potentially tipping a stalling economy into a technical recession.
In the last major funding stress (March 2020), the spread between SOFR and IORB blew out.
Watch the SOFR-IORB spread. If it starts gapping, it means the private market is starving for cash even while the Fed sits on a mountain of it. We saw this in 2020.
This sounds scary, but don’t worry I’ll keep you updated on everything.
$BTC
🚨 WHY BITCOIN IS STUCK AND WHY IT WON’T LAST
If you’re wondering why $BTC keeps orbiting the $85K–$90K zone despite constant attempts to break out, here’s the real reason.
This isn’t trader indecision. It’s options mechanics.
Bitcoin is pinned near a key options pivot around $88K.
Above ~$88K
Market makers are forced to sell into strength and buy pullbacks.
Rallies get suppressed and dragged back toward equilibrium.
Below ~$88K
The dynamic flips. Selling amplifies volatility instead of absorbing it, making downside moves sharper.
That’s why price keeps snapping back to the same area.
Now look at $90K.
There’s a dense cluster of call options there. Dealers are short those calls, so every push toward $90K forces them to hedge by selling spot BTC. What looks like organic selling is actually mechanical supply right where momentum traders expect a breakout.
On the flip side, $85K is packed with puts. As price dips, dealers hedge by buying spot, causing fast rebounds.
Result: a tight, artificial range that feels stable but isn’t.
The key is timing.
A large portion of this options exposure expires on January 30, 2026. Once that expiry passes, the pin disappears not because sentiment changes, but because the forces holding price in place vanish.